SPEC Barometer Results Social-Political Research Unit SPEC Barometer Results April 2009

Survey background The Social, Political, Economic and Cultural Barometer (SPEC) is conducted every three months by the Steadman Group (Now Synovate). The main objective of this particular survey is to assess the general public opinion on several political and social issues. The survey assessed the following issues: Government performance Public Trust in various public institutions and personalities Performance of the various public personalities Evaluation of the power sharing agreement Political parties alignment

Poll Methodology The target population for this survey was all Kenyan adults aged 18 and above (voting age). A sample size of 2,035 respondents was drawn, using a 35:65 urban to rural ratio. The margin of error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 2.2 % margin at 95% confidence level. This sample size is large enough to make reliable estimates on the target population opinion. The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 13th-17th April. Data were collected through Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI). CATI is a call-centre approach towards survey interviewing, and consists of two systems: (1) a computer system (both hardware and software) for administering electronic questionnaires, and (2) a telephone system for contacting the respondents. This system is advantageous in that it is fast and accurate (so that data collection was completed only yesterday), with responses entered into computers as the phone interviews are being conducted. CATI is the main method of data collection for opinion poll data in the developed world (where phone ownership/use is nearly universal).

Poll Methodology (Cont…) To administer SPEC survey on CATI, a database of 50,000 Kenyans aged 18+ was used. This database has been accumulated over time by Steadman Synovate (and is continuing to be augmented). In this database, comprising the sampling frame, respondent information such as demographics and geographical location was collected, including ownership of/access to mobile phones, allowing those respondents to be contacted by this (CATI) method. To achieve the sample for this opinion polls, a randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to size (PPS) on this database was used. Doing this ensured geographical representation, i.e., explicitly in terms of province and setting (urban/rural) to match the sample structure of previous polls and implicitly reflecting the distribution of population over Kenya’s districts. During the interview process, those who were not reached at the first attempt (either because the number was busy or the call did not go through), automatic appointments/call backs were programmed by the CATI software. In the event that no contact was made after 5 attempts on different days and times, this number was substituted. The data collection involved the use of an electronic semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed-ended questions. The survey questions were structured so as to allow for a broad range of opinion-options, including “no opinion.” This eliminates bias in the way the questions are asked, and responses captured. Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The CATI Supervisors made a minimum of 15% back-checks to ascertain whether the calls were actually made and if the responses given were correct.

Government Service/Sector Area Performance Ratings

“How satisfied are you with the way the Government is dealing with the issues facing our country?” Base: All Respondents

Trust and Approval Ratings of Top Leaders and Institutions

“How much trust you have in each of the following people or institutions?” % ‘saying a lot of trust’ Base: All Respondents

“To what extent do you approve of the overall performance of… “To what extent do you approve of the overall performance of…?” % ‘saying Highly disapprove: Base: All Respondents

Attitudes and Expectations Towards the Power-Sharing Agreement

Support For the Power-Sharing Agreement Between President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga Base: All Respondents

% “Saying Support strongly/Support A little bit” Support For the Power-Sharing Agreement Between President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga: by Total, Province & Setting % “Saying Support strongly/Support A little bit” Base: All Respondents

Support For the Power-Sharing Agreement Between President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga: Time Series Base: All Respondents

“How likely do you think it is that the Grand Coalition Government will serve out its full time in office, until 2012?” Base: All Respondents

“How likely do you think that the Grand Coalition Government will serve out its full time in office, until 2012?”: By Total, Province & Setting. Base: All Respondents

“Given the current tensions in the coalition government, which would you suggest is a way forward?” Base: All Respondents

“Do you want the next election to be held on scheduled in 2012 or earlier?” Base: All Respondents

Political Party Alignment and Correlations

“Which political party do you feel closest to, if any?” Base: All Respondents

Political Party Alignment by Total & Province Base: All Respondents

“Which political party do you feel closest to, if any?”: Time series Base: All Respondents

Support For the Power-Sharing Agreement Between President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga: by Political Party Alignment Base: All Respondents

“Given the current tensions in the coalition government, which would you suggest is a way forward?”: by Political Party Alignment Base: All Respondents

“Do you want the next election to be held on scheduled in 2012 or earlier?”: by Political Party Alignment Base: All Respondents

Preferred (Possible) Presidential Candidate in Next Election

“If an election for president were held now, who would you vote for, if that person were a candidate?” Base: All Respondents