Finding Probabilities

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Presentation transcript:

Finding Probabilities How are probabilities found?

Three Ways… THEORETICAL – for example drawing a king from a pack of cards. This is called using equally likely outcomes. SURVEY OR EXPERIMENTAL – we can’t use equally likely outcomes to calculate the probability of an event such as buying a certain brand of fizzy drink. Instead we collect experimental data and estimate the probability. The more data collected the better the estimate. HISTORICAL – the probability of an event occurring such as an earthquake can only be estimated by looking at past data and making a “best guess”.

Which of the three methods would we use…? Someone in this class will go abroad for a holiday this year. You will win the national lottery. Your bus home will be late. It will snow on Christmas day. You will pick a red seven from a pack of cards.