HOW DO WE BRING DOWN TYRANTS? This screen has the big picture questions that students should be able to answer later on so don’t answer here. Because of syllabus review, I only got through the first two slides.

The big questions: Is there ever any need for tyrants? Machiavelli and Hobbes thought so; even elitists like Plato, Aristotle, and Hamilton thought not. When and why do tyrants fall? When do they survive? China vs. Slobodan Milosevic How do tyrants fall? If R2P is increasingly meaningful, why is humanitarian intervention from the outside so difficult to do well in a world system of sovereign states? Is it best to let them self-implode or die? (which appears to happen in most cases ) What’s the best strategy for the masses to bring tyrants down: violence vs. non-violence

Why do tyrants self destruct? (The main points of Glad’s article) Are tyrants simply brutal “just” because they have to be to stay in power (ala Machiavelli)? Is it better to be feared than loved by the people and those who could take power away from you? Malignant narcissism: Although tyrants talk about ideological ends, why are they are rarely actually committed to them or their “comrades”? Why does “grandiosity” leave tyrants so blind to reality testing and prone to committing risks As they consolidate power, they face ever fewer constraints over time Group think prevails; leaders think that they are getting better over time They don’t learn from mistakes, but instead tend to eliminate the most able around them as scapegoats; this leads to increasing isolation They challenge the basic morality of those they govern; they think come to think that they can write history and not be accountable at all They increasingly engage in reckless conflict and purges, inviting more elite dissent Over time, they frequently surround themselves with people who would like to kill or replace them (Stalin and Hussein were self aware here b/c of how they came to power. Paranoia and inferiority complexes increase with physical age, power is a “narcotic”, and tyrants are less easily satisfied over time by adulation and limited violence

Why do tyrants get vulnerable over time? For GW Bush example, first put Bush  Gulf War on the board. Did just having GW Bush in power mean that we for sure were going to war? Probably not.. His presence alone was not sufficient because Congress had to approve. It was, however, almost surely necessary because Gore probably wouldn’t have invade.

Why do tyrants stay too long? For GW Bush example, first put Bush  Gulf War on the board. Did just having GW Bush in power mean that we for sure were going to war? Probably not.. His presence alone was not sufficient because Congress had to approve. It was, however, almost surely necessary because Gore probably wouldn’t have invade.

When and why do tyrants (vs. hard authoritarian systems) fall When and why do tyrants (vs. hard authoritarian systems) fall? Some background info to help you get the most out of the China documentary What can the Chinese experience teach us? To what extent is Mao Zedong’s China a case of tyranny? (Are his “Great Leap Forward” in the 1950s and the “Cultural Revolution” of the 1960s and 70s” really in the same class as Hitler or Stalin?) Why did students, in China the masses, and—most important—many elites in the army and government stand up to the authorities in 1989? How does the malignant narcissism of tyrants—including Mao—undermine their effectiveness over time? What bad decisions do they typically make and to what effect? (The Cultural Revolution) Why does ideological disillusionment and elite fear in tyrannical states grow over time? Why do tyrannical states face such serious economic problems Why did Mao’s grasp on power not shift automatically to Deng Xiaoping in the 1980s? Why did he face challenges with economic success? What are” tipping points,” and why do outsiders and experts consistently fail to predict when a tyranny will fall? Why did students not succeed in China? State & student variables

Why was the outcome in Serbia different?

WHY DOES CIVIL RESISTANCE WORK BEST? Violence vs. Non-violence: the track-record Non-violent movements have succeeded in brining down tyrants at 6 times the rate of violent movements that met with armed state resistance When key defections take place among regime supporters, the odds of bringing down a tyrant is four times as high. If a sig. portion of the security forces defect, a tyrant is nearly 50 times as likely to be pushed out. Why does violence not work very well? Violent opposition leads to increased cohesion among regime elites who fear that a “revolutionary” outcome will be very harmful for them. Violence decreases support among key swing groups who support for the regime Decreases external (i.e. foreign) support for opposition and fear that a system will destabilize What is the “strategy? of non-violence? Knowing when it will work, organizing first, and targeting it to split the regime: Lots of successful opposition begins outside but it must move inside Choosing action with great care: Creativity is crucial, highlighting paradoxes, splitting the opposition (esp. with economic boycotts), & laying out a post-struggle scenario clearly that lets regime defectors know that they will survive…especially if they abandon the regime early