Tweet about this presentation #TransitGIS Using GIS Analysis to Develop Transit Market Areas Kyle O’Donnell Burrows Metro Transit Title Speaker Information Tweet about this presentation #TransitGIS

Local Context 186 Cities and Townships 96 in Capital 7 Counties Levy District 7 Counties 81 in Metro Transit Service Area 15 served by STAs }{

The Problem How can we allocate our limited resources in a fair, efficient, and cost-effective manner? While maximizing ridership and providing transit access across the region How can we communicate those decisions in a way that: Is clear and understandable Is not personal Provides communities with a way forward

Transit Market Areas What are Transit Market Areas? Methodology Application Planning Tool Communication Tool Caveats and lessons learned

Transit Market Areas – What are they? A classification tool used to: identify relative propensity to use transit across the Twin Cities region guide allocation of transit resources – what types and levels of service can a given area support? based on: an index of demographic and land use factors Population density Employment density Intersection density Auto deficit density

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Past Transit Market Index formula Population + 1/3(Employment) + Auto Avail.* TMI = Developed Acres *Auto Availability = Total population over 16 – available automobiles

Update to the Transit Market Index Are population, employment, and automobile deficit the best available indicators of a propensity to ride transit? Are the specific factors equal in importance – or should they be weighted, when considered together? Should additional factors be considered – particularly relating to the built form?

Methodology Determine predictor variables to include in Transit Market Index (TMI) Calculate Transit Market Index for each U.S. Census defined Block Group in our region Combine Block Groups based on TMI values to form distinct Transit Market Areas Review and refine Transit Market Area boundaries using geographic smoothing

Regression Analysis of Possible Predictors Response variable: stop-level bus transit boarding and alighting data from Automated Passenger Counters on-board vehicles (for local routes) Possible predictor variables: drawn from past research, industry knowledge/expertise, local desire to include indicator of built form Controlled for level of existing transit service (sum of daily transit trips on distinct routes by direction)

Potential predictor variables tested Employment density Population density -or- Net housing density Automobile availability -or- No vehicle households per developed acre Commercial buildings floor area ratio Intersection density Land use diversity index Centrality – number of jobs within a 5 mile radius

Best Fit Model 𝐿𝑁 𝑇𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑃𝑜𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 =4+0.64∗𝐿𝑁 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠 +0.20∗𝐿𝑁 𝐸𝑚𝑝𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠 +0.11∗𝐿𝑁 𝑉𝑒ℎ𝐷𝑒𝑓𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠 +0.23∗𝐿𝑁 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠 +1.65(𝑀𝑆𝑃𝐴𝑖𝑟𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡) Log-log regression model used so coefficients = elasticities

Best Factors to Include in TMI Every 1% increase in… Results in a theoretical ridership increase of… Population Density…………... Intersection Density…………. Employment Density………... Auto Avail. Density…….......... 0.64% 0.23% 0.20% 0.11%

Transit Market Index formula 0.64*Population Density 0.23*Intersection Density 0.20*Employment Density 0.11*Auto Deficit Density TMI =

Population Density 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑑 𝐿𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑠

Employment Density 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐸𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑑 𝐿𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑠

Intersection Density 𝑊𝑒𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑑 𝐿𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑠

Auto Deficit Density 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟 16 −𝐴𝑣𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝐴𝑢𝑡𝑜𝑠 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑑 𝐿𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑠

TMI Block Groups }{ Highest Potential Ridership Approx. 2X previous Lowest Potential Ridership Approx. 2X previous Approx. 2X previous Approx. 2X previous }{

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Transit Market Areas as a Planning Tool Form the basis of the regional Route Design Guidelines providing recommendations regarding: Route spacing Frequency Span of service Etc. Provide guidance for the types and levels of service that are typically appropriate in a given area

Transit Market Areas as a Planning Tool Typical Transit Service Market Area I Dense network of local routes with highest levels of service accommodating a wide variety of trip purposes. Market Area II Similar network structure to Market Area I with reduced level of service as demand warrants. Market Area III Primary emphasis is on commuter express bus service. Suburban local routes providing basic coverage. Market Area IV Peak period express service is appropriate as local demand warrants. Market Area V Not well-suited for fixed-route service.

Transit Market Areas as a Communication Tool Simple way to show how potential transit ridership is distributed throughout the region Communities and planners can see what they can reasonably expect relative to the rest of the region Objective measure – they do not take politics or community boundaries into account Educational tool – how can communities develop to support the transit levels they want?

Transit Market Areas as a Communication Tool Market Area I Market Area II

Transit Market Areas as a Communication Tool Market Area III Market Area IV

Caveats and Lessons Learned Regional tool – does not replace planning at the route-level Based on US Census Block Groups – Market Areas are determined by those boundaries Regression analysis allows us to better calibrate the Transit Market Index formula to our region

Kyle O’Donnell Burrows Transit Planner kyle.burrows@metrotransit.org THANK YOU Kyle O’Donnell Burrows Transit Planner kyle.burrows@metrotransit.org