COEVOLUTION of COOPERATION and SELECTIVE INTERACTION -AN EXPERIMENT-

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Presentation transcript:

COEVOLUTION of COOPERATION and SELECTIVE INTERACTION -AN EXPERIMENT- Jun Kobayashi (jun.kobayashi@uchicago.edu) http://www.src.uchicago.edu/users/koba/ Today is the FIRST day in Europe. (in each slide) Title → SUMMARY → read out → MOVE. Jun Kobayashi (U of Chicago) Hirokuni Ooura (Teikyo U) Hideki Ishihara (Waseda U) February 16, 2003 Cancun, SUNBELT

Jun Kobayashi (jun.kobayashi@uchicago.edu) http://www.src.uchicago.edu/users/koba/ PLAN QUESTION THEORY HYPOTHESES METHOD BUSINESS GAME RESULT CONCLUSION

Jun Kobayashi (jun.kobayashi@uchicago.edu) http://www.src.uchicago.edu/users/koba/ QUESTION MODERN SOCIETIES… Can CHANGE PARTNERS. Divorce, Move, Change Job, Multinational Firms, Immigrate. COOPERATION in Dilemmas… when CHANGE PARTNERS? My basic interest is in problems of SOCIAL CHOICE.

Jun Kobayashi (jun.kobayashi@uchicago.edu) http://www.src.uchicago.edu/users/koba/ PRISONERS' DILEMMA Rational to DEFECT, Worse than ALL COOPERATE. Payoff My basic interest is in problems of SOCIAL CHOICE. Defection Cooperation # Cooperators

Jun Kobayashi (jun.kobayashi@uchicago.edu) http://www.src.uchicago.edu/users/koba/ LITERATURE COGNITIVE Solution… COMMON VALUE (Sen). STRUCTURAL Solution… SANCTIONS (Olson). STRATEGIC Solution… TIT-FOR-TAT (Axelrod)  LEAST Assumption. My basic interest is in problems of SOCIAL CHOICE.

Jun Kobayashi (jun.kobayashi@uchicago.edu) http://www.src.uchicago.edu/users/koba/ THEORY SELECTIVE INTERACTION (Dawes), EXITING (Hayashi). EXIT Cooperators' NETWORK. BUT, NONTRIVIAL… b/c Defectors FOLLOW. My basic interest is in problems of SOCIAL CHOICE. C C D D C D D C

Jun Kobayashi (jun.kobayashi@uchicago.edu) http://www.src.uchicago.edu/users/koba/ HYPOTHESES "EXITING TIT-for-TAT'… TIT-for-TAT in a Group, EXIT when DEFECTED, Cooperate in NEW Group. H1 SOME play "EXITING TFT." H2 Earn MORE than DEFECTORS. My basic interest is in problems of SOCIAL CHOICE.

Jun Kobayashi (jun.kobayashi@uchicago.edu) http://www.src.uchicago.edu/users/koba/ METHOD Web-based EXPERIMENT. Repeat PD Game in a GROUP, MOVE to ANOTHER Group, ANONYMOUS. 15-20 Subjects (students). 30-40 PD Games; 3-6 Moves. 6 Sessions, 111 Subjects. 2 Universities in Japan. My basic interest is in problems of SOCIAL CHOICE.

Jun Kobayashi (jun.kobayashi@uchicago.edu) http://www.src.uchicago.edu/users/koba/ My basic interest is in problems of SOCIAL CHOICE.

Jun Kobayashi (jun.kobayashi@uchicago.edu) http://www.src.uchicago.edu/users/koba/ BUSINESS GAME Work at one of 4 FIRMS. If D (Work LAZILY), PAYOFF… # Cooperators 4 . # Workers in Firm If C (Work HARD), PAYOFF… D's Payoff - 2. My basic interest is in problems of SOCIAL CHOICE. Defection Payoff Cooperation # Cooperators

Jun Kobayashi (jun.kobayashi@uchicago.edu) http://www.src.uchicago.edu/users/koba/ EACH MONTH Your CHOICE, PAYOFF Each FIRM's PAYOFF #Workers My basic interest is in problems of SOCIAL CHOICE. HOW to WORK?

Jun Kobayashi (jun.kobayashi@uchicago.edu) http://www.src.uchicago.edu/users/koba/ EVERY 6 MONTHS History of Each FIRM's PAYOFF, #Workers Each FIRM's AVERAGE PAYOFF My basic interest is in problems of SOCIAL CHOICE. WHERE to WORK?

Jun Kobayashi (jun.kobayashi@uchicago.edu) http://www.src.uchicago.edu/users/koba/ RESULT Mean SD C .40 .24 Move .54 Payoff .80 .38 6 Sessions 111 Subjects My basic interest is in problems of SOCIAL CHOICE.

Jun Kobayashi (jun.kobayashi@uchicago.edu) http://www.src.uchicago.edu/users/koba/ DISTRIBUTION move behav. EXIT FIXED RANDOM total TFT 30 10 8 48 All C 1 4 6 All D 7 3 2 12 5 27 Other 18 58 35 111 X2=8.89, p=0.36. My basic interest is in problems of SOCIAL CHOICE.

Jun Kobayashi (jun.kobayashi@uchicago.edu) http://www.src.uchicago.edu/users/koba/ TEST HYPOTHESIS 1 SOME play "EXITING TFT"? SUPPORTED! INDEPENDENCE b/w BEHAVIOR / MOVE Strategies. 27% (30 in 111) My basic interest is in problems of SOCIAL CHOICE.

Jun Kobayashi (jun.kobayashi@uchicago.edu) http://www.src.uchicago.edu/users/koba/ PAYOFF move behav. EXIT FIXED RANDOM total TFT 0.77 0.90 0.80 All C 0.09 0.66 1.01 0.62 All D 0.91 0.87 1.39 0.98 0.83 0.68 0.88 0.79 Other 0.74 0.25 0.84 My basic interest is in problems of SOCIAL CHOICE.

Jun Kobayashi (jun.kobayashi@uchicago.edu) http://www.src.uchicago.edu/users/koba/ TEST HYPOTHESIS 2 Exiting TFT BETTER than D? DENIED!! (p=0.06, one-side test). B/c Defectors INVADE. payoff 1 My basic interest is in problems of SOCIAL CHOICE. 0.9 ALL D 0.8 EXITING TFT 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 1 2 0.76 0.98

Jun Kobayashi (jun.kobayashi@uchicago.edu) http://www.src.uchicago.edu/users/koba/ CONCLUSION Possibility of COEVOLUTION, BUT Needs MORE. To Exclude Defectors, DISTINGUISH Individuals. EMERGENCE of Networks? My basic interest is in problems of SOCIAL CHOICE.