Droughts in Ohio: Shall We be Worried? Tiao J. Chang Department of Civil Engineering Russ College of Engineering, Ohio University Athens, Ohio 45701 Prepared for the WMAO 2009 Fall Conference November 5, 2009

Precipitations in Ohio Geographic Distribution (World Book)

Precipitations in Ohio Temporal Distribution (ODNR)

Streamflows in Ohio: Athens Gauging Station (USGS)

Streamflows in Ohio: Delaware Gauging Station (USGS)

As far as water is concerned, it is promised. Ohio - Blessed Land As far as water is concerned, it is promised.

Streamflows in Ohio: Athens Gauging Station (USGS)

1988 Drought in the Midwest

1988 Drought in the Midwest (Athens Messenger, 6-10-1988)

1988 Drought in the Midwest (Athens Messenger, 6-9-1988)

1988 Drought in the Midwest (Athens Messenger, 6-20-1988)

1988 Drought in the Midwest (Athens Messenger, June 1988)

How to Define Droughts (AWRA Journal, October 1990)

A 100-year Drought? (AWRA Journal, October 1990)

Truncation Level of Drought Indicators Streamflow, Precipitation, Reservoir Level

Drought Definition Temperature and Groundwater Drawdown

Levels of Drought Severity

A Drought Monitoring Method Operable under existing conditions Palmer Drought Severity Index (Palmer, 1965) Technically effective Acceptable by all parties

Drought Indicators Streamflow Precipitation Groundwater Level - drawdown Temperature - Reservoir Level -

Scioto River Basin

Streamflow Gauging Stations (18)

Example of Truncation Levels: Daily Streamflow Olentangy River at Delaware Mean daily flow: 10.00 cms 70% Truncation Level: 0.911 cms 80% Truncation Level: 0.651 cms 90% Truncation Level: 0.453 cms 95% Truncation Level: 0.312 cms

Precipitation Gauging Stations (21)

Temperature Gauging Stations (13)

Groundwater Wells (14) & Reservoirs (4)

Precipitation Gauging Stations (21)

Mean Drought Durations

Conditional Probability from 70% to 80%

Severity Levels of Streamflow Drought Based on daily flow monitoring, a drought event is between two levels of severity Duration of current event ≥ Mean drought duration Conditional probability ≥ 0.50 Levels of Severity Selection Gauging Stations Indicator: majority of gauging stations

Gauging Stations in the Basin

Basinwide Drought Severity Levels Streamflow drought plus at least one other indicator exceeding the severity level of streamflow drought - Level of streamflow drought is selected. Streamflow drought plus at least one other indicator reaching 70% but not exceeding that of streamflow drought – 70% is selected Streamflow not reaching 70% but at least two other indicators are – 70% is selected

Test for April 1988

Test for May 1988

Test for June 1988

Summary: The monitoring method Groundwater drawdown indicated the drought event at the earliest stage. Precipitation is the most sensitive drought indicator. Based on the definition as stated, streamflow becomes the most critical basinwide drought indicator?

Flood vs. Drought Reservoirs operated for flood control only Can that be for drought management?

Four Reservoirs in the Basin

Requirements for the Optimization Model Minimum release is required for each reservoir. Minimum streamflow at control stations according to demands at a given drought severity level. Mass conservation of a reservoir. Minimum reservoir elevation for a reservoir.

Assumptions for the Optimization Model Maximum Release - the amount enclosed between the specified reservoir elevation and the 70% truncation level of the reservoir. Area Factor- contribution of a reservoir to a downstream control station is proportional to the drainage area of a reservoir. Distance Factor - contribution of a reservoir to a downstream control station is inversely proportional to the distance of the reservoir from the control station.

Expression of Area Factor

Expression of Distance Factor

Objective Function of the Optimization Model

Constraints for Minimum Flows at Control Stations

Constraints for Mass Conservation of Involved Reservoirs

Constraints for Minimum Releases from Involved Reservoirs

Example of Constraints for 70% Drought Severity

Example for Deer Creek- April 1988

Example for Deer Creek-May 1988

Example for Deer Creek-June 1988

Example for Paint Creek-May 1988

Example for Paint Creek-June 1988

Example for Paint Creek-July1988

Example Paint Creek-August 1988

Paint Creek - September 1988

Summary: The Optimization Method Daily monitoring of drought severity as defined enables an optimum model for management using flood-control reservoirs. The developed area factor and distance factor rationalize conflicting constraints for competing uses under the stress of water shortage. The safe yield of a reservoir estimated based on drought severity levels eases the operation of the reservoir.

Yin: Shortage of water; Yang: Too much of water Water in Ohio Yin: Shortage of water; Yang: Too much of water Yin and yang are complementary

Personal Reflections Equilibrium Water and Watershed Conservation Mass, Energy, and Momentum Equilibrium Water and Watershed