House, Senate, & Gubernatorial Races 2018 Midterm Elections House, Senate, & Gubernatorial Races Make slides simpler Need a more introductory slide about # of seats in play

Special Elections

Special Election Summary 10 special elections 2 changes of party Both from Republican to Democratic representatives Connor Lamb won Tim Murphy’s seat Doug Jones won Jeff Sessions’ seat Special Election Summary This is good enough Who are the big changes House and senate

The President’s Impact

Trump’s Approval Rating January 2017: 45% January 2018: 37.25% July 2018: 41.5% September 2018: 41% Gallup Maga and protesters Too much information January Which year What the rating was when he came in Compare this to other presidents One slide-trump’s approval jan 2016, 2017, 2018 and now For some group of presidents What their highest and lowest approval ratings were

Trump’s Approval Rating Disapprove vs Approve FiveThirtyEight: 53.8% 39.6% - 14.2% Real Clear Politics: 54.4% 41.5% - 12.9%

Generic Congressional Vote Real Clear Politics: Democratic Republican 48.5% 39.2%

What it will be about? The President The year of the angry white college educated suburban women Intensely Republicans vs Democrats

Republicans want it to be about the economy/tax cuts and low unemployment Democrats want it to be about the President and the need for check on his unbridled power

Key Issues Trump Immigration/the wall Deregulation Judge Kavanaugh/ Judge Gorsuch: The Role of Courts Trade Taxes Key Issues Republicans Two lists-d and r

Key Issues Trump Healthcare Judge Kavanaugh/Judge Gorsuch: The role of Courts Role of Courts Immigration/The wall Tax fairness Infrastructure Education Environment Key Issues Democrats

Realignment of the Parties

Republicans Used to be the Party of Highly Educated, Rich, Rural and Southern Americans Especially White Suburban Women Supported small government and free trade Balanced Budgets

Trump’s Party is Now Made up Overwhelmingly of: Less Educated Working Class Whites Especially White Men But Whites are now Only 66% of Turnout vs. 88% in 1988

The Affluent White Men Especially in Rural South and the Plains States Protection on trade Deficits of 1 Trillion or more Geography: Rust Belt States of Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, & Wisconsin, the South, Plains States

Democrats Used to be: The Party of Unionized White Working Class, as Well as Minorities and the Intelligentsia Now: Democrats Largely Dependent Upon Educated White Women, Upper Middle Class, Under 30, and Minorities

Geography Overwhelmingly: California, Oregon, Washington, New York, New Jersey, New England, Illinois, Delaware, and Maryland, and New Mexico Increasing in States: Colorado, Nevada, Virginia

Major Inroads: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas Toss Ups: Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

Federal Level Elections

Senate

Democrats Would Need to Net 2 Seats to Win Majority Senate Breakdown Democrats Would Need to Net 2 Seats to Win Majority

Current Senate Breakdown Democrats: 49 Seats Republicans: 51 Seats 51 Seats Needed for Majority Democrats Would Need to Net 2 Seats to Win Majority Current Senate Breakdown No pictures

Senate Seats in Play Safe Democrat: 14 Likely Democrat: 3 Leans Democrat: 4 Toss up: 9 Leans Republican: 0 Likely Republican: 1 Safe Republican: 4 35 Senate Seats 26 D/ 9 R Real Clear Politics Senate Seats in Play

Real Clear Politics 2018 Senate Toss up Elections FL: Nelson (D) Scott (R) IN: Donnelly (D) Braun (R) MO: McCaskill (D) Hawley (R) MT: Tester (D) Rosendale (R) ND: Heitkamp (D) Cramer (R) O AZ: McSally(R) Sinema (D) NV: Heller (R) Rosen (D) O TN: Blackburn (R) Bredesen (D) TX: Cruz (R) O’Rourke (D)

Real Clear Politics Senate RCP Averages Missouri Hawley (R) +0.6 Tennessee Bredesen (D) +1.6 Florida Scott (R) +1.7 Montana Tester (D) +5.5 North Dakota Cramer (R) +0.5 Nevada Rosen (D) +0.6 Arizona Sinema (D) +5.4 Texas Cruz (R) +4.4 West Virginia Manchin (D) +8.4 Wisconsin Baldwin (D) +8.0 Minnesota Smith (D) +8.4 New Jersey Menendez (D) +8.3

Cook Political Report vs Cook Political Report vs. Real Clear Politics 2018 Senate Toss up Elections Likely to Lean OH: Brown (D) Toss Up to Likely MT: Tester (D) 5D Toss Up FL: Nelson (D) IN: Donnelly (D) MO: McCaskill (D) ND: Heitkamp (D) WV: Manchin (D) 3R Toss Up AZ: McSally (R) vs Sinema (D) NV: Heller (R) TN: Blackburn (R) vs Bredesen (D) Likely R TX

Sabato’s Crystal Ball 2018 Senate Toss up Elections TX Likely R WV Leans D TN Leans R

Current Senate Leadership Majority Leader: Mitch McConnell (KY) Majority Whip: John Cornyn (TX) Commerce Chairman: John Thune (SD)

What a Democratic Senate Would Look Like Majority Leader: Chuck Schumer (NY) Majority Whip: Dick Durbin (IL) Commerce Chairman: Bill Nelson (FL)/ Maria Cantwell (WA)/ Amy Klobuchar (MN) Two separate slides Energy commerce and senate commerce For each one also add current leadership

House of Representatives

Democrats Would Need to Net 23 Seats to Win Majority House Breakdown Democrats Would Need to Net 23 Seats to Win Majority Two separate slides

Current House Breakdown Democrats: 193 Seats Republicans: 235 Seats Vacancies: 7 Seats 218 Seats are Needed for Majority Democrats Would Need to Net 23 Seats to Win Majority No pictures

Republicans In Trouble In The House 63 Republican seats without an Incumbent One in Six Republican Seats in The House Democrats Have Raised More Money in 71 of 101 Districts Two/Thirds of These Districts are Republican Districts

Outside Money Requires a Spend of Two to Three Times That of a Candidate Reduced Rates for Candidates Too Many Fires to Put Out Trump Can’t be Everywhere

Real Clear Politics 98 Seats in Play Likely D Lean D Toss Ups Lean R Likely R 14 13 43 16 12 4R/10D 5R/8D 2D/41R 0D/16R 1D/11R

Charlie Cook 103 Seats in Play Likely D Lean D Toss Ups Lean R Likely R 11 9 30 27 26 8D/3R 2D/7R 2D/28R 27R 1D/25R

Larry Sabato 119 Seats in Play Likely D Lean D Toss Ups Lean R Likely R 12 22 31 19 35 10D/2R 13D/9R 29D/2R 19R 35R

76 Republicans/10 Democrats Roll Call 86 Seats in Play 76 Republicans/10 Democrats

State Breakdown - Seats in Play California Florida State Breakdown - Seats in Play Aggregate CA, PA, IL, FL, MN, VA Toss up are one thing Now going to look at seats in play Four or five or six top seats Or do them all and he can delete them

Real Clear Politics Toss Ups 2 in New York OH1 3 in Pennsylvania 3 in Texas UT4 2 in Virginia WA8 WI1 WV3 2 in Minnesota 5 in California CO6 FL26 2 in Iowa 2 in Illinois 2 in Kansas KY6 2 in Michigan

Current House Leadership Speaker: Paul Ryan (WI) House Majority Leader: Kevin McCarthy (CA) Energy & Commerce Chairman: Greg Walden (OR)

What a Democratic House Would Look Like Speaker:  Nancy Pelosi (CA-12) ??? House Majority Leader:  Steny Hoyer (MD-5) ??? Ways & Means Chairman: Frank Pallone, Jr. (NJ-6)

Gubernatorial Races Tennessee State House Ohio State House Pictures who are these people-captions Ohio State House

Current Governors 16 1 33 Democrats Independent Republicans

38 Governors Up Democratic Leans D Toss Ups Leans R 3 Likely CT CO AK IA IL+ ME+ AZ OH PA MI+ FL TN 3 Safe MN GA CA NM+ KS HI OR NV NY RI OH WI

Real Clear Politics: 2018 Gubernatorial Toss up Elections AL: Walker (I) Dunleavy (R) Begich (D) AZ: Ducey (R) Garcia (D) + FL: Desantis (R) Gillum (D) + GA: Kemp (R) Abrams (D) Tie NV: Laxalt (R) Sisolak (D) + OH: Dewine (R) Cordray (D) + TN: Lee (R) + Dean (D) WI: Walker (R) + Evers (D)

Real Clear Politics Gubernatorial RCP Averages Kansas Kelly (D) +1.0 Ohio Cordray (D) +1.6 Nevada Sisolak (D) +1.0 Arizona Garcia (D) +1.0 Georgia Abrams (D) Tie Florida Gillum (D) +2.5 Wisconsin Evers (D) +3.5

Cook Political Report: 2018 Gubernatorial Toss up Elections FL: Open (R) IA: Reynolds (R) ME: Open (R) MI: Open (R) NV: Open (R) OH: Open (R) MN: Open (D) CT: Open (D) AK: Walker (I)

Sabato’s Crystal Ball: 2018 Gubernatorial Toss up Elections AK: Walker (I) CO: Open (D) CT: Open (D) MN: Open (D) FL: Open (R) IA: Reynolds (R) MI:Open (R) NV: Open (R) OH: Open (R)