Educational Attainment and Economic Prosperity Educational Attainment & Economic Prosperity November 14, 2018

Agenda State Goals & Trends Benefits of Postsecondary Attainment Demographic Trends Understanding the Need and Impact of Attainment Reaching the Goal Benefits of Postsecondary Attainment Economic Societal Benefits

State Postsecondary Goals & DEMOGRAPHIC Trends

Goals The Virginia Plan for Higher Education: Be the best-educated state by 2030 70 percent of adults with high quality credential or degree, 1.5 million awards What are the goals/priorities? Access/affordability Student success and completion Traditionally underserved populations Innovation and efficiency Workforce needs/economic development/Research

Virginia’s goal to be best-educated state

Overall population change is increasing about the same as the national average, but there are differences across age, racial/ethnic groups, and regions Source: American Community Survey Data, 2016

While younger aged Virginians make up the largest proportion of total residents, seniors and older workers represent fastest growing population

And Hispanic residents represent the fastest growing demographic population Source: American Community Survey Data, 2016

While Virginia is among the top 10 States in levels of attainment…

…Within these total figures, there are stark differences in educational attainment among different populations. Virginia’s Black, Hispanic and Native American populations are on average ~20 points behind the White majority population.

There are also significant regional disparities across the state Falls Church City 84.5% Sussex – 12.1% Listing by locality provided in appendix Source: Lumina Foundation http://strongernation.luminafoundation.org/report/2017/#nation Source: Lumina Foundation

There are differences in the rates of working age populations with some college, but no degree by race.

BENEFITS OF POSTSECONDARY ATTAINMENT

Economic Impact Educational attainment data are a key component to many state rankings (Best State for Business, Best State to Live and Raise a Family) A one point increase in the percentage of postsecondary educated people lifts their wages 1.5%, and the earning of other citizens by 1.1% A one point increase in the percentage of people with post-secondary degrees and credentials increases overall economic growth over ten years by one–half percentage point

Individuals with postsecondary credentials typically earn higher income and are more likely to be employed Source: American Community Survey Data, 2016

Attainment Impacts Income EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT AND PERSONAL INCOME, BY VIRGINIA REGION, 2010-2014 Percentage of Population with a Bachelor’s Degree or Better 11.1% to 15% 15.1% to 20% 20.1% to 25% 25.1% to 30% 30.1% to 35% 35% or higher Northern $65,296 Eastern $40,781 Valley $38,056 Central $48,044 West Central $37,808 Southwest $32,561 Southside $32,160 Hampton Roads $44,790 Prepared by the Council on Virginia’s Future, 2017, Using the nine cultural regions designated for its work. 15 15

Societal Benefits Notes: Public Assistance = any public assistance in past 22 months Supplementary Security Income = Social Security for those with  disabilities preventing them from working, and their dependents in  past 22 months Source: American Community Survey Data, 2016

Benefits to the Commonwealth Source: It’s Not Just the Money, Lumina Foundation https://www.luminafoundation.org/resources/its-not-just-the-money

Benefit to Individuals & Communities Individuals with an associate degree or higher are….. 38% more likely to have health benefits 79% more likely to volunteer 30% more likely to vote in an election …than individuals with a high school diploma Source: It’s Not Just the Money, Lumina Foundation https://www.luminafoundation.org/resources/its-not-just-the-money

Reaching the Goal

By 2020, 67% of jobs in Virginia will require postsecondary education Source: Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce, Projections of Jobs through 2020, https://cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/recovery-job-growth-and-education-requirements-through-2020/

Virginia Compared to the Nation and Other States Virginia’s educational attainment rate ranks 6th in the nation for working-aged adults Virginia is at 51% However, Virginia’s educational attainment rate ranks 11th for its younger population (ages 25 – 34) Note: Certificate and credential data based on estimates developed by Georgetown Center on Education and Workforce Source: Lumina Foundation http://strongernation.luminafoundation.org/report/2017/#nation

Younger Cohort Falling Behind Global Competition: Where We Are Now Massachusetts Maryland 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 80% Educational Attainment (Bachelor’s and Above) of Virginia and Key Competitors, 2015 Ages 25 to 34 Ages 25 to 64 Virginia Korea Canada Japan UK France US SOURCE: Country Data - Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Education at a Glance, 2016/ State Data – SCHEV staff analysis of US Census and Lumina foundation data NOTE: State data represents 2014 while country data shows 2015 data. 6 Prepared by the Council on Virginia’s Future, 2017

Virginia’s Educational Attainment Virginia’s Educational Attainment by Age Group Graduate or professional degree Bachelor’s Associate Some college Virginia’s Educational Attainment Rates by Age and Type Educational attainment rates vary by age. 35-44 year olds have the highest percentage of postsecondary degrees. This could shift in the coming years as more individuals ages 25-34 earn a degree. Source: American Community Survey, 2015 1-year Estimates, B15001.

Number of High School Graduates is Relatively Flat Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, 2016. knocking.wiche.edu * Total is the sum of Public School graduations and does not include Private School graduations, which data was not available in a disaggregated form. A table that includes Private School totals is included in the appendix. The Public Schools Total will not exactly equal the sum of the races/ethnicities columns, which are projected separately. Academic Year refers to the K-12 calendar running fall to spring and may include graduates from any point in that school year, including the summer after the year end.

Of 100 high school graduates in VA . . . 72 students in 2015 enrolled within 16 months at a: 4-year public, 4-year private, or 2-year institution Little change in the percentage of HS graduates enrolling Enrollment in postsecondary remained between 71-72% from 2008 to 2015 Source: Virginia Department of Education. Postsecondary enrollment report https://p1pe.doe.virginia.gov/postsec_public/postsec.do?dowhat=LOAD_REPORT_C11

Percentage of 2015 HS Graduates Going to College Source: Virginia Department of Education. Postsecondary enrollment report https://p1pe.doe.virginia.gov/postsec_public/postsec.do?dowhat=LOAD_REPORT_C11

School Divisions w/ Lowest Percent of HS Graduates Enrolled in College Total Students Number Enrolled Percent Enrolled King and Queen County 39 15 38% Page County 263 110 42% Westmoreland County 97 42 43% Caroline County 229 102 45% Charles City County 49 25 51% Petersburg City 172 89 52% Staunton City 171 Appomattox County 167 87 Amelia County 125 66 53% Richmond City 990 530 54% Total Number of Lowest = 1,155

School Divisions w/ Greatest Number of HS Graduates Attending College Total Students Number Enrolled Percent Enrolled Fairfax County 12,048 10,111 84% Prince William County 5,338 4,052 76% Loudoun County 4,458 3,825 86% Virginia Beach City 4,546 3,313 73% Chesterfield County 4,165 2,984 72% Henrico County 3,125 2,246 Chesapeake City 2,767 2,106 Stafford County 2,102 1,526 Spotsylvania County 1,620 1,053 65% Arlington County 1,247 1,026 82% Total of top 10 = 32,242

HS Graduate College Enrollment Trends by Race White/ 2 or more races Black Hispanic Hispanic Source: Virginia Department of Education. Postsecondary enrollment report https://p1pe.doe.virginia.gov/postsec_public/postsec.do?dowhat=LOAD_REPORT_C11

Where Did 2015 HS Graduates Go to College? Percent of Graduates Enrolling by Institution Type 4-year public 4-year private 2-year Source: Virginia Department of Education. Postsecondary enrollment report https://p1pe.doe.virginia.gov/postsec_public/postsec.do?dowhat=LOAD_REPORT_C11

Pell Undergraduate Enrollment Distribution 2016-17 Source: All students http://research.schev.edu//fair/pell_trend_report.asp

Pell Undergraduate Enrollment Trends Percent of Total Enrollments by Institution Type Public 2-year Public 4-year Source: http://research.schev.edu//fair/pell_trend_report.asp

Virginia Plan Measure: Success Target: Annually improve completion rates that close the gap between underrepresented populations and traditional students by 2030 Underrepresented populations Non-underrepresented populations Completion/Success Index for Public Institutions Note: Underrepresented populations include those who are minority race/ethnicity, students ages 25 and older, low-income or from areas of the state in the lowest quintile for postsecondary attainment. Completion is measured by the student success index which includes students who graduate or remain enrolled at any Virginia institution within the measurement timeframe. The Student Success index is a broader measure than traditional graduation rates as it includes all students, including full-time, part-time, transfer and first-time in college students. In addition, success is counted by students who either graduate at their institution or another institution or remain enrolled after the measurement period. Source: http://research.schev.edu/gradrates/success_index.asp 2011-12 for 4-year/2013-14 for 2-year within 100% time frame

Success Index Public 4-Year (Normal time)

Success Index Public 2-Year (Normal time)

6-year graduation rates by income are improving, but gaps remain largely the same Source: http://research.schev.edu//gradrates/CHL_EconTrendsHeac.asp

Attainment Rates in Rural Virginia Educational attainment in the Commonwealth’s “rural horseshoe” lags the remainder of the state If the rural horseshoe were its own state of nearly 2.1 million residents, it would be tied with Arkansas at 50th and ranked between Mississippi and West Virginia with only 19% of its residents holding a bachelor’s degree or higher – and 19% of adults fail to graduate high school Nearly 1 in 3 adults are not in the workforce in Southside and Southwest Virginia Source: Virginia Community Colleges, Rural Virginia Horseshoe Initiative

Individuals with Credits Earned and No Degree at a VA Public or Private, Nonprofit Institution Total Individuals Earning wages less than $44k 0-10 credits 318,808 257,315 11-29 credits 180,752 152,302 30-59 credits 101,861 87,643 60-89 credits 33,450 31,696 90+ 13,039 12,301 Total Credits 647,910 541,257 Source: SCHEV research Notes: Credits--Virginians Enrolled in Public and Nonprofit Private Colleges between 1992-93 and 2012-2013 who Passed at Least One Class with a "D" or Better. Earnings—Earnings are based on years 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, or 2015

Virginia Plan Measure: Awards Target: Grant 1.5 million undergraduate degrees and workforce credentials by 2030, including those that close the gap in unfilled jobs Actual and Projected Cumulative Awards to reach 1.5 million Target by 2030 Projections Actuals Source: Commonwealth Degree, Certificate Completion Scorecard http://research.schev.edu/completions/completion_scorecard.asp

Strategy Labs StrategyLabs.LuminaFoundation.org

Virginia Attainment Rates by County and Independent City Source: Lumina Foundation

Virginia Attainment Rates by County and Independent City In NCHEMS data from the 2000 Census, Virginia had the widest gap between counties (not cities), which was 61.2%.  Not only was it the widest, it far exceeded most others.  The second widest was in New Mexico, at 57.6%; but then the gap sizes dropped off significantly -- i.e., the third widest was 48.6% (Texas), with the number dropping slowly to the 14.0% (the narrowest gap) in Delaware.   Lumina’s 2017 Stronger Nation Report indicates the data remains very similar (this analysis includes cities and counties):  Virginia gap = 71.4 (85.2 - 13.8); New Mexico still appears to be second = 57.5 (74.8 - 17.3) and Texas comes in third = 53.7 (60.0 - 6.3)  Lowest is Delaware = 11.0 (44.5 - 33.5) but they are very small and homogeneous. Source: Lumina Foundation

Virginia High School Graduations Source: www.knocking.wiche.edu

Virginia High School Graduations .  Source: www.knocking.wiche.edu