SmartDrivingCars & Older People: Sooner Rather Than Later by Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering Director, Program in Transportation Faculty Chair, PAVE (Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering) Princeton University Presented at 95th Annual Meeting of Transportation Research Board January 11, 2016 Washington, DC

As we Age… Traffic Safety… http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/812005.pdf

As we Age… Biggest Impact of Losing One’s Driving Privilege… Loss of Independence Impact faced by many Others: The Young (12->17) The Handicapped (Blind/Visually Impaired, Physically Impaired) The Poor (Especially the Rural Poor, no access to Public Transportation) Mobility also becomes enormously EXPENSIVE We now need to be chauffeured!... Meaning a substantial Labor Charge Challenging to share that Labor Charge even in the presence of good public transportation … Public Transportation relies on personal mobility capabilities to access the vehicles at widely separated stations/stops

How can Smart Driving Cars Help? Substantially Reduce Accidents of Elderly still driving Now Available… “NHTSA Level2” ADAS (Automated Driver Assistance Systems) Provide Door2Door On-Demand Mobility in 55+ Gated Communities Now Available… “Slow-Speed, NHTSA Level4” Driverless Systems

How can Smart Driving Cars Help? Substantially Reduce Accidents of Elderly still driving Now Available… “NHTSA Level2” ADAS (Automated Driver Assistance Systems) Provide Door2Door On-Demand Mobility in 55+ Gated Communities Now Available… “Slow-Speed, NHTSA Level4” Driverless Systems

How can Smart Driving Cars Help? Substantially Reduce Accidents of Elderly still driving Now Available… “NHTSA Level2” ADAS (Automated Driver Assistance Systems) Provide Door2Door On-Demand Mobility in 55+ Gated Communities Now Available… “Slow-Speed, NHTSA Level4” Driverless Systems

How can Smart Driving Cars Help? Substantially Reduce Accidents of Elderly still driving Now Available… “NHTSA Level2” ADAS (Automated Driver Assistance Systems) Provide Door2Door On-Demand Mobility in 55+ Gated Communities Now Available… “Slow-Speed, NHTSA Level4” Driverless Systems

How can Smart Driving Cars Help? Substantially Reduce Accidents of Elderly still driving Now Available… “NHTSA Level2” ADAS (Automated Driver Assistance Systems) Provide Door2Door On-Demand Mobility in 55+ Gated Communities Now Available… “Slow-Speed, NHTSA Level4” Driverless Systems

How can Smart Driving Cars Help? Provide Inexpensive Door2Door Mobility to all w/o Driver Privilege Obviously enormous societal benefits; HOWEVER…. Requires “NHTSA Level4” Driverless “autonomousTaxi” Else it must incur a labor cost Bad News….Unlikely Soon… California Proposed Regulations Forbid Testing of “Driverless” on Public Streets We have yet to go the “first meter” Driverless on an “unprepared” Public Street Good News…. Experience with the near-term “Level2” & “slow-speed Level 4” will prepare us to achieve the general “NHTSA Level4” Driverless aTaxi”

Discussion! Thank You alaink@princeton.edu www.SmartDrivingCar.com

Where are we really? autonomousTaxis (aTaxis; Adam Jonas Upper RD Quad) Driverless (where less can be zero) “Mass” Transit system of the future. Chauffeured from A2B True Horizontal Elevator Level-of-Service Shares existing roads with human drivers Shares the ride Enormous opportunity to Reduce the cost Reduce the environmental Consequences of increased PMT Eliminates congestion

Where are we really? autonomousTaxis (aTaxis; Adam Jonas’ Upper RH Quad) Fact: We have yet to go even “one meter” Driverless in an “unprepared” environment. But in moderately “prepared” environments we can get started Recommendation #3: Let’s focus on as many as possible “Deployments” in “Gated Communities” Low speed (under 25mph), Last mile, …. And gradually serve more “unprepared”… We’ll get to that “first meter” Unprepared.

How can Smart Driving Cars Help? Near-term “NHTSA Level2” ADAS (Automated Driver Assistance Systems) Substantially Reduce Accidents of Elderly that are still driving Near-term “Slow-Speed, NHTSA Level4” Driverless Systems Provide Door2Door On-Demand Mobility throughout 55+ Gated Communities

How can Smart Driving Cars Help? Near-term “NHTSA Level2” ADAS (Automated Driver Assistance Systems) Substantially Reduce Accidents of Elderly that are still driving Near-term “Slow-Speed, NHTSA Level4” Driverless Systems Provide Door2Door On-Demand Mobility throughout 55+ Gated Communities

How can Smart Driving Cars Help? Near-term “NHTSA Level2” ADAS (Automated Driver Assistance Systems) Substantially Reduce Accidents of Elderly that are still driving Near-term “Slow-Speed, NHTSA Level4” Driverless Systems Provide Door2Door On-Demand Mobility throughout 55+ Gated Communities

How can Smart Driving Cars Help? Near-term “NHTSA Level2” ADAS (Automated Driver Assistance Systems) Substantially Reduce Accidents of Elderly that are still driving Near-term “Slow-Speed, NHTSA Level4” Driverless Systems Provide Door2Door On-Demand Mobility throughout 55+ Gated Communities

How can Smart Driving Cars Help? Near-term “NHTSA Level2” ADAS (Automated Driver Assistance Systems) Substantially Reduce Accidents of Elderly that are still driving Near-term “Slow-Speed, NHTSA Level4” Driverless Systems Provide Door2Door On-Demand Mobility throughout 55+ Gated Communities

How can Smart Driving Cars Help? Near-term “NHTSA Level2” ADAS (Automated Driver Assistance Systems) Substantially Reduce Accidents of Elderly that are still driving Near-term “Slow-Speed, NHTSA Level4” Driverless Systems Provide Door2Door On-Demand Mobility throughout 55+ Gated Communities

How can Smart Driving Cars Help? Long-term “NHTSA Level4” ADAS (Automated Driver Assistance Systems) Substantially Reduce Accidents of Elderly that are still driving Near-term “Slow-Speed, NHTSA Level4” Driverless Systems Provide Door2Door On-Demand Mobility throughout 55+ Gated Communities

Where are we really?

Where are we really?

Past There seems to be a new Transportation Technology realization… What started out in “1939” as Automated Highways

AHS: Automated Highway Systems: 1939 - 1997 “Waterloo”: No feasible way to get started

V2V: Connected Vehicles: 1997 - “Waterloo”: Little value until a substantial market penetration is achieved. Again a non-starter

Automated Vehicles (rather than Automated Highways) : 2004 - Focus on making one Automated Vehicle co-exist with today’s infrastructure and human drivers; then simply replicate Real beauty is in its “autonomy” (forgo the “Systems” concept) : Each replicated vehicle benefits (Cost of Replication is Small) ! CityMobil2

Present: Safety is an Issue! NHTSA: Car Crashes cost US $871B/yr (~ $2,800/person 5/29/14) The Sensors, Actuators and Algorithms are on the verge of being able to Drive as well as the best of us without needing any infrastructure improvements in enough places at enough times to make a substantial difference in Safety.

But you say… Alain… Safety doesn’t Sell! Look… Few drive Volvos, Public-sector Mandates and Threatens : Up until now we have focused on crash mitigation (This saves lives  , but hasn’t reduced costs  )

Present: Safety is an Issue! NHTSA: Car Crashes cost US $871B/yr (~ $2,800/person 5/29/14) Buses: The Sensors, Actuators and Algorithms are on the verge of being able to Drive as well as the best of us without needing any infrastructure improvements in enough places at enough times to make a substantial difference in Safety.

More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/Subaru%20EyeSight_Commercial60secCrashTest.mp4 More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies

More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yARbNYcjPQM More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies

More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWj44GjrSs0 More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies

Discussion! Thank You alaink@princeton.edu www.SmartDrivingCar.com