Tank Car NAR Data Breakdowns 2017 Preliminary Source of data: PHMSA on-line NAR data and data provided by Canadian Class 1 railroads Todd Treichel ttreichel@aar.org All data in these slides are for tank car non-accident releases of hazmat/dangerous goods only. They are compiled for the AAR Tank Car Committee and the North American NAR Reduction Task Force, whose focus is also restricted to tank cars at present. Tank cars experience the large majority of NARs compared to other packages, and also represent a larger hazard because of the quantities of lading in the tanks (though NARs almost always involve a very small loss compared to tank capacity). 7/11/18 PRELIMINARY

Sources for the NAR Data The main source for incidents in the US is PHMSA’s 5800.1-based data Canadian Class 1s also voluntarily provided data on incidents in Canada Railroads are voluntarily adding BOE Cause Codes to their 5800.1 reports More precision than PHMSA Cause Codes However, this process was introduced mid-2017 and needed considerable follow-up to complete the dataset The North American NAR Reduction Task Force has scope covering all of North America, so data from both US and Canada are included. BOE=Bureau of Explosives. BOE uses its own cause codes because they offer a somewhat finer-grained breakdown. NARRI Scores account for both the actual consequences of a specific event and the potential consequences based on chemical hazard and other factors, according to a well-defined formula used by the reporting railroads. How preventable the securement problem should have been when the car was released to transportation is also weighed in the score. 7/11/18 PRELIMINARY

Further Notes on NAR Data Some gaps Cause Codes for most US short lines Canadian short line incidents Did not attempt to include Mexican incidents 2017 data do include US short line incidents, while previous years lacked many of those – but they are excluded from the trend graphs for comparability with previous years While the 2017 dataset is finalized, the graphs shown here are preliminary because there has not been a full review of the various counts The North American NAR Reduction Task Force has scope covering all of North America, so data from both US and Canada are included. BOE=Bureau of Explosives. BOE uses its own cause codes because they offer a somewhat finer-grained breakdown. NARRI Scores account for both the actual consequences of a specific event and the potential consequences based on chemical hazard and other factors, according to a well-defined formula used by the reporting railroads. How preventable the securement problem should have been when the car was released to transportation is also weighed in the score. 7/11/18 PRELIMINARY

Tank Cars with NARs by Year US & Canada * The Canadian NAR reduction program was expanded to the US as well in 1996. Recent years had seen sustained progress, 2014 shows some regression. Crucially though, the total volume of tank car hazardous materials shipments has reached record levels in recent years. 63% reduction since 1996 32% reduction since 2007 7/11/18 PRELIMINARY

Top Commodities for NARs Top 15 in Tank Car NARs in 2017 US & Canada The Task Force looks first at causes and commodities with the highest numbers of NARs, because that’s where the potential for big improvements lies. Ten years ago, AA and LPG were the leaders, but they have been reduced drastically. Crude oil and Alcohols NOS have surged ahead, although in both cases, this is due to the huge increase in shipment volume. Also of interest: Pet. Crude 3 7/11/18 PRELIMINARY

Multiple Tank Car NARs During 2017 from the Same Origin Point 323 origins had 1 NAR, 40 had 2 NARs, etc. 7 origin locations had 5 or more NARs in 2017 Note that Alcohols NOS stays around or below the average of all hazmats, indicating that the unprecedented huge volume of trips is driving the high NAR counts. Crude oil had ranked somewhat above average, but not in 2013. Most of these rates fell in 2013, and the rest were essentially stable. 2014 shipment data are not available yet. 7/11/18 PRELIMINARY

Alcohols NOS Trend 7/11/18 PRELIMINARY Alcohols NOS NARs have settled in at a level, as has shipment volume. Due to the magnitude of that volume, it remains an opportunity to eliminate a large number of NARs through one community of shippers. The NAR reduction program is based on raising awareness, and is not punitive, which is why there is an emphasis on count data over rate data. NARs of some types and commodities are easier to detect while still in transportation. Furthermore, a high rate based on only two or three NARs is not a big opportunity for reduction of the overall number of NARs, whereas a low rate but high count may be a chance to affect a large number of NARs at once. Alcohols NOS NAR levels are volume-driven. That is, the levels are high, but the rate per shipment is average among hazmats. 7/11/18 PRELIMINARY

Anhydrous Ammonia Trend This commodity is a huge success story. AA reached 90 to 100 NARs annually in years before 2004. 7/11/18 PRELIMINARY

Crude Oil Trend 7/11/18 PRELIMINARY Shipment volume is increasing drastically, and NARs are coming along with it. 116 of the 165 NARs in 2014 occurred in the first half of the year. 7/11/18 PRELIMINARY

LPG Trend 7/11/18 PRELIMINARY Shipment volume is increasing drastically, and NARs are coming along with it. 116 of the 165 NARs in 2014 occurred in the first half of the year. 7/11/18 PRELIMINARY

Tank Car NARs per 1,000 Originations Selected Commodities Note that Alcohols NOS stays around or below the average of all hazmats, indicating that the unprecedented huge volume of trips is driving the high NAR counts. Crude oil had ranked somewhat above average, but not in 2013. Most of these rates fell in 2013, and the rest were essentially stable. 2014 shipment data are not available yet. 7/11/18 PRELIMINARY

Tank Car NARs per 1,000 Originations Selected Commodities HCl Excluded Note that Alcohols NOS stays around or below the average of all hazmats, indicating that the unprecedented huge volume of trips is driving the high NAR counts. Crude oil had ranked somewhat above average, but not in 2013. Most of these rates fell in 2013, and the rest were essentially stable. 2014 shipment data are not available yet. 7/11/18 PRELIMINARY

Components Involved in NARs Non-pressure Cars 2017 “Manway” includes all of the different manway systems found on various non-pressure cars, including hinged and bolted and acid car arrangements. Manway NARs were on the rise, until 2013, when they dropped by 42 NARs. Fill hole and safety vent NARs are down considerably. Vacuum relief valves are inching up again. The rest are mostly little-changed. “Other” generally includes vandalism and causes we don’t have a code for yet, such as swing bolts fouling manway covers so they don’t close, loss of vacuum between tanks on a DOT-113 car (not included in this graph), etc. Fifteen is a high number, and we will investigate why this is occurring. 7/11/18 PRELIMINARY

Top Specific Causes for Non-pressure Cars 2017 “Manway” includes all of the different manway systems found on various non-pressure cars, including hinged and bolted and acid car arrangements. Manway NARs were on the rise, until 2013, when they dropped by 42 NARs. Fill hole and safety vent NARs are down considerably. Vacuum relief valves are inching up again. The rest are mostly little-changed. “Other” generally includes vandalism and causes we don’t have a code for yet, such as swing bolts fouling manway covers so they don’t close, loss of vacuum between tanks on a DOT-113 car (not included in this graph), etc. Fifteen is a high number, and we will investigate why this is occurring. 7/11/18 PRELIMINARY

Components Involved in NARs Pressure Cars 2017 “Manway” includes all of the different manway systems found on various non-pressure cars, including hinged and bolted and acid car arrangements. Manway NARs were on the rise, until 2013, when they dropped by 42 NARs. Fill hole and safety vent NARs are down considerably. Vacuum relief valves are inching up again. The rest are mostly little-changed. “Other” generally includes vandalism and causes we don’t have a code for yet, such as swing bolts fouling manway covers so they don’t close, loss of vacuum between tanks on a DOT-113 car (not included in this graph), etc. Fifteen is a high number, and we will investigate why this is occurring. 7/11/18 PRELIMINARY

Top Specific Causes for Pressure Cars 2017 “Manway” includes all of the different manway systems found on various non-pressure cars, including hinged and bolted and acid car arrangements. Manway NARs were on the rise, until 2013, when they dropped by 42 NARs. Fill hole and safety vent NARs are down considerably. Vacuum relief valves are inching up again. The rest are mostly little-changed. “Other” generally includes vandalism and causes we don’t have a code for yet, such as swing bolts fouling manway covers so they don’t close, loss of vacuum between tanks on a DOT-113 car (not included in this graph), etc. Fifteen is a high number, and we will investigate why this is occurring. 7/11/18 PRELIMINARY