The Need for Change Pete Lindsay – UK Space Agency

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Presentation transcript:

The Need for Change Pete Lindsay – UK Space Agency 21 May 2018

The Space Industry Act 2018 The Space Industry Act received Royal Assent on 15 March. It is a major milestone in establishing the environment for safe, responsible and commercial operations from UK spaceports. It is the result of collaboration across UK Government Departments. Safety of the uninvolved general public is at the heart of this Act. The Act’s provisions also ensure that spaceflight activity taking place from the UK is carried out in compliance with the UN space treaties.

Modelling Risk A framework for modelling overall (financial) risk Pi Determine loss distribution for probability of scenario Probability Pi of ith scenario Value of loss, Vi, of ith scenario (e.g. impact) Law of total probability (Pi, Vi) pairs Orbital environment scenario impact model Orbital environment scenario probability model Initial orbital environment data Background population System implementation (e.g. Constellation architecture) Spacecraft specifications Physics: Time-dependent physics models Propagators Collision/interaction models Fragmentation Statistical Analysis: Uncertainty quantification Sensitivity analysis Data ensembles Time-dependent orbital environment data/models SRP Atmospheric conditions CONOPS input Pi Time-dependent asset value data/models Revenue Depreciation Dynamic economic models: Redundancy State/company economic interactions Non-linear repercussions Vi Initial asset value data Cost of spacecraft Launch cost A framework for modelling overall (financial) risk What is the probability of a particular scenario occurring? What is the cost of a particular a scenario? What are the expected losses? Scenario physical impact e.g. assets damaged

GEOF/HERL (Herstmonceux) Current Capability Starbrook (Cyprus) GEOF/HERL (Herstmonceux) CASTR (Chilbolton) UK SpOC RAF Fylingdales 5

Key Questions What services should Government provide? How to source data? Build or buy? Better data? Increased analytical capability? New Sensors? Radars? Telescopes? Laser ranging systems? Orbital surveillance systems? Something Else?

Thank You Peter.Lindsay@ukspaceagency.gov.uk