Lecture 27: Things Fall Apart May 28, 2010
Questions That Should Have Been Asked Before the Invasion but Weren’t Is Saddam deterrable? What changed in 2003? Is democracy so easy? What happens when a historically victimized group takes power? Effect on regional balance of power What if Iraqis don’t love being occupied? Could invasion play into al-Qaeda’s hands? What if things go wrong?...
Most Egregious Blunders in the Occupation Not enough troops Disdain for expertise, triumph of ideology “De-Baathification” Dismantling the Iraqi army Early elections Breakdown of security Insurgency Capture of state by one sectarian group
Unintended Consequences… Costs Blood: 95-105,000 (Iraqbodycount.org) 655,000 (Lancet, 2006) Iraqis, 4,700 Americans Treasure: $900 billion so far, $7 billion a month, (estimated) $3 trillion overall State collapse civil war (2006-07) New balance of power in Middle East
“Shia Crescent”
Unintended Consequences… Costs Blood: 95-105,000 (Iraqbodycount.org) 655,000 (Lancet, 2006) Iraqis, 4,700 Americans Treasure: $900 billion so far, $7 billion a month, (estimated) $3 trillion overall State collapse New balance of power in Middle East Refugees
Refugees
Unintended Consequences… Costs Blood: 95-105,000 (Iraqbodycount.org) 655,000 (Lancet, 2006) Iraqis, 4,700 Americans Treasure: $900 billion so far, $7 billion a month, (estimated) $3 trillion overall State collapse New balance of power in Middle East Refugees “Winning” the “war on terror”? Rumsfeld (2003): “Are we capturing, killing or deterring and dissuading more terrorists every day than the madrassas and the radical clerics are recruiting, training and deploying against us?” Anti-Americanism