Autonomous (ADAS) Bus & Truck Retrofits: Implications on Public Safety, Occupational Safety and Enhanced Trans-Hudson Mobility by Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering Director, Program in Transportation Faculty Chair, PAVE (Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering) Princeton University Presented at Strategic Market Alignment for Roadway Technologies (SMART) Meeting December 2, 2015 Kierman Plaza Albany, NY

A Few Realizations about… Safety Deaths/yr.: ~ 32K US; ~1.25M World Leading cause of death for ages of 5 -> 35 One of the most dangerous occupations Worse than coal mining NHTSA: Car Crashes cost US $871B/yr (~ $2,800/person 5/29/14) ($2.8K/person); 1/3 Cash Liability expenses 2013 (Transit Buses, US) $500M/yr. $6,300/bus/yr (120 fatalities/yr) > 90% involve Human error

A Few Realizations about… Safety Effectiveness of Automated Collision Avoidance Systems: Early Systems: 20% reduction Google Estimates for Google Car: 78% reduction Reasonable Expectation of Mature ACAS: 50% Implications of @ the 10% adoption level: 1,600 lives saved per year (~5 lives/day) $45B/yr Economic Savings; $15B/yr. Cash @$3K/System; Cash savings purchases 5M ACA Systems/yr. 1/3 new car sales Implications of @ the 20% adoption level: 3,200 lives saved per year (~10 lives/day) $90B/yr Economic Savings; $30B/yr. Cash @$3K/System; Cash savings purchases 10M ACA Systems/yr. 2/3 new car sales

A Few Realizations about… Safety For Buses Implications of @ the 10% adoption level: $25M/yr Cash Savings (6 Fatalities/yr) @$5K/System; Cash savings purchases 5K ACA Systems/yr. 6% of bus Nationwide bus fleet Implications of @ the 20% adoption level: $50M/yr Cash Savings (12 Fatalities/yr) @$5K/System; Cash savings purchases 10K ACA Systems/yr. 12% of bus Nationwide bus fleet

A Few Realizations about… Safety Implications: For New Buses: a $5k; 50% effective ACAS has an RoI of less than 2 years Over the 14 year life of a bus, it will produce a NetPresentValue (NPV) > $25K ACAS Prints money!!! Also: Lives saved, injuries averted, Occupational Safety Improved!

What about retrofit Opportunites? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yARbNYcjPQM What about retrofit Opportunites?

A Few Realizations about… Safety Implications: Action: NY Must require ACAS on each new Bus Purchase NY Must retrofit each Bus having > 2 yr service life NY Must do the same for much of its fleet of other road vehicles

Implications: Action: NY Must require ACAS on each new Bus Purchase NY Must retrofit each Bus having > 2 yr service life NY Must do the same for much of its fleet of other road vehicles

What are the Bottlenecks in Trans-Hudson Mobility Automobiles Forget about it Rail The Amtrak Tunnels Few stations Buses PABT 495 viaduct Lincoln Tunnel

Can Anything be Done?

Just a Note: Application of Existing Automated Collision Avoidance Systems (Which include: Lane Keeping & Intelligent Cruise Control) (What exists today in Mercedes, Volvo & Tesla) To the 3,000 buses that currently use the XBL today 3,000 x $5,000 = $15M (0.15% of $10B) Could increase the capacity of the XBL by 50% From 700 to 1,050 buses/hr (adding 17,500 commuters/hr = added capacity of new rail tunnel) But ONLY if the $10B spent on the new terminal is designed to accommodate this 50% increase in throughput.

What are the Bottlenecks in Trans-Hudson Mobility Implications: Action: PANYNJ Must Seriously Consider the role of ACAS-equipped buses in the design and operation of the new bus terminal. (This is the dog, not the tail)

Discussion! Thank You alaink@princeton.edu www.SmartDrivingCar.com

Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Business Case The Trend is NOT Good!

Automated Collision Avoidance Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Business Case   2013 Nationwide Bus Casualty and Liability Expense Source FTA NTD Casualty and Liability Amount Vehicle-related 119 Fatalities 15,351 Injuries  $499,872,628. Total Buses Commuter Bus (CB), Motor Bus (MB), Bus Rapid Transit (RB), Demand Responsive (DR) 80,795 Sub-Total Casualty and Liability Amount Per Bus $6,187/Bus/Year

Present: Safety is an Issue! NHTSA: Car Crashes cost US $871B/yr (~ $2,800/person 5/29/14) The Sensors, Actuators and Algorithms are on the verge of being able to Drive as well as the best of us without needing any infrastructure improvements in enough places at enough times to make a substantial difference in Safety.

Port Authority Bus Terminal (PABT) New York City Source: Google Earth 2013

Potential Increased Capacity of Exclusive Bus Lane (XBL) Using Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC) (Assumes 45 foot (13.7 m) buses @ with 57 seats) Average Interval Between Buses (seconds) Average Spacing Between Buses (ft) Average Spacing Between Buses (m) Buses Per Hour Additional Buses per Hour Seated Passengers Per Hour Increase in Seated Passengers per Hour 1 6 2 3,600 2,880 205,200 164,160 47 14 1,800 1,080 102,600 61,560 3 109 33 1,200 480 68,400 27,360 4 150 46 900 180 51,300 10,260 5 (Base) 212 64 720 - 41,040

Increasing Bus Capacity To Mid-town Manhattan Would Involve Three Elements:    Increasing the capacity of the PABT, particularly to accommodate outbound passengers in the PM peak*   Increasing the capacity to feed buses into the terminal for PM outbound service, either by making bus storage space available in Manhattan or by expediting the PM eastbound flow of buses through the Lincoln Tunnel. Increasing the AM peak hour flow of buses through the XBL *currently under study

But you say… Alain… Safety doesn’t Sell! Look… Few drive Volvos, Public-sector Mandates and Threatens : Up until now we have focused on crash mitigation (This saves lives  , but hasn’t reduced costs  )

Present: Safety is an Issue! NHTSA: Car Crashes cost US $871B/yr (~ $2,800/person 5/29/14) Buses: The Sensors, Actuators and Algorithms are on the verge of being able to Drive as well as the best of us without needing any infrastructure improvements in enough places at enough times to make a substantial difference in Safety.

More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/Subaru%20EyeSight_Commercial60secCrashTest.mp4 More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies

More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWj44GjrSs0 More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies

More Viable Future: For Example Driving a Bus is NOT Simple and Very Stressful Requires Continuous Diligence 2 bus drivers in NYC arrested for striking a pedestrian while simply trying to do their job Driving is one of the most dangerous occupation

Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Political Case Driving a Bus is NOT Simple and Very Stressful Requires Continuous Diligence 2 bus drivers in NYC arrested for striking a pedestrian while simply trying to do their job Driving is one of the most dangerous occupation Drivers need help and ACA systems are available to help! Transit Unions & OSHA need to be demanding deployment of ACAS on all buses!

Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Business Case Bus Collisions are Expensive!

Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Business Case Bus Collisions are Expensive! In the next five days the bus transit industry will spend $6.8 million in casualty and liability expenses

Fundamental Business Model Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Business Case Bus Collisions are Expensive! Fundamental Business Model We are near a point where: Cost of Automated Collision Avoidance Technology < Present Value {Expected Liability Savings over life of bus}

Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Business Case Bus Collisions are Expensive!

Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Business Case Bus Collisions are Expensive!

Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Business Case Bus Collisions are Expensive! Plus: Lives Saved, Injuries Avoided, Disruptions Averted, and Arrests not Made All for Free!!!

Fundamentally Strong Business Case! Future Evolve the Sensors, Actuators and Algorithms to be Cheaper & Drive Better than the best of us without needing any infrastructure improvements in More places at More times While continuing to improve Safety, AND Revolutionize Mobility for All Substantially Reduce Energy Consumption Pollution, and Green House Gases (GHG) Fundamentally Strong Business Case!

Fundamentally Strong Business Case! an Enormous Amount of Work But, an Enormous Amount of Work Needs to be Done

Over the Past 3 Years A Number of US have been Meeting: To Leverage the Region’s Assets: Home of major NA HQ: Insurance, Auto OEM, Technology, Communications and University Research Re-purposing of PU’s Forrestal Campus, Fort Monmouth & Bell Labs To Create the Research, Certification & Commercialization Environment: That Develops Automated Vehicle (AV) Technology such that: PriceSDT < NetPresentValue { Expected {AccidentLiability w/o AV } - Expected {AccidentLiability w AV }} To Create Jobs while Improving Safety, Mobility and the Environment

Over the Past 3 Years We’ve created : Center for Automated Road Transportation Safety (CARTS) Initial Board of Governance: Initial Focus on Automated Collision Avoidance A Scope that includes Research Certification & Commercialization That Spans all Road modes: Cars Buses Trucks And Recognizes the Importance of After-market as well as OEM

Automated Collision Avoidance CARTS Focus: Automated Collision Avoidance Modal Dimension Sector Dimension Commercialization Certification Research Transit Cars Trucks CARTS Activity Matrix

After-market/Retrofit CARTS Focus: Automated Collision Avoidance Center’s Activity Tensor Trucks After-market/Retrofit Modal Dimension Transit OEM Cars Research Certification Commercialization Sector Dimension

After-Market/Retrofit After-Market/Retrofit CARTS Focus: Automated Collision Avoidance Center’s Activity Tensor Research Certification Commercialization Trucks Trucks Transit Modal Dimension Transit After-Market/Retrofit Cars After-Market/Retrofit Cars OEM OEM Research Certification Commercialization Sector Dimension

Next Steps Launch the CARTS Research Activities @ PU’s Forrestal Campus, Prepare for the CARTS Certification Activities @ Fort Monmouth, and Prepare for the CARTS Commercialization Activities @ Bell Works

Discussion! Thank You alaink@princeton.edu www.SmartDrivingCar.com

Just a Note:

Just a Note: Application of Existing Automated Lane Keeping & Intelligent Cruise Control (What exists today in Mercedes, Volvo & Tesla) To the 3,000 buses that currently use the XBL today 3,000 x $5,000 = $15M (0.15% of $10B) Could increase the capacity of the XBL by 50% From 700 to 1,050 buses/hr (adding 17,500 commuters/hr = added capacity of new rail tunnel) But ONLY if the $10B spent on the new terminal is designed to accommodate this 50% increase in throughput.

The following slides will NOT be used

McAfee Office Building Princeton University Center for Research, Certification & Commercialization of Automated Vehicles at Fort Monmouth McAfee Complex 1250’ x 865’ ~ 25.8 acres Vehicle Bays McAfee Office Building ~ 100,000sf Support Buildings

Center for Automated Road Transportation Safety McAfee Complex 1250’ x 865’ ~ 25.8 acres Vehicle Bays McAfee Office Building ~ 100,000sf Support Buildings

Princeton University Center for Research, Certification & Commercialization of Automated Vehicles at Fort Monmouth Secure Test Center ~ 80 acres

Mixed Use of Roadways in Princeton University Center for Research, Certification & Commercialization of Automated Vehicles at Fort Monmouth Mixed Use of Roadways in ½ the Fort ~ 1 sq. mile Exclusive Use Roadways

APM: Automated People Mover: 1968 - “Waterloo” limited to serve “Few to Few” demand

PRT: Personal Rapid Transit: 1968 - Attempt to serve “Many to Many” but “Waterloo” may well be the word “Personal” & Exclusive Guideway?

Quality of Life 101: Important Elements Environment Clean air, water, … Employment “High Quality” Jobs Correlated with Crime/Personal Safety Mobility Personal Desire with Societal Oversight Priorities: Safety, Efficiency, Equity, Comfort, Convenience, …

Installed Cost ($C) of that Technology Founding Premise Automated Vehicle Technology can evolve such that: If added to a single vehicle, The probabilities that this vehicle will be involved in various types of accidents are substantially reduced. Overall the expected Liability Cost Savings ($L) attributed to those avoided accidents > Installed Cost ($C) of that Technology

If ($L) > ($C) of that Technology Founding Premise If ($L) > ($C) of that Technology Then there is an enormous Business Case for the adoption of that technology by that vehicle and every other vehicle. The technology more than pays for itself from the savings that it delivers. PLUS: The created “High Quality” Jobs, Improved Personal Safety Avoided Personal Disruptions Improved the Environment, and Arguably Improved: Efficiency, Equity, Comfort, Convenience, … All Come for FREE!

Fundamental Focus of the NJ Center for AV@ Fort Monmouth: Advancing AV Technologies that ($L) > ($C) Facilitating Fundamental R&D on enabling sensor and control technologies, and Vehicle<->driver/rider<->WWW<->Vehicle… interface elements Quantifying the Expected Accident Probability implications of those AV Technologies. To enable positive insurance and risk mitigation interests to propel adoption that also greatly benefits Testing and Certification of those AV Technologies Support Technically the Public Oversight/Regulation of those AV Technologies Support Technically the Commercialization of those AV Technologies

Assets We Have: Enabling State Legislation S-734 passed NJ Senate 35-0 Assembly bill waiting to move. We can help.

Assets We Have: McAffee Center 25 acre Campus Eastern Gated Test Site Enabling State Legislation S-734 passed NJ Senate 35-0 Assembly bill waiting to move. We can help. Option on Facilities McAffee Center 25 acre Campus 100,000 ft2 office 2 large 1st class garages Eastern Gated Test Site 80 acres Existing streets and buildings Limited use of Fort’s exiting roadways

Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS) Princeton University Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS) at Fort Monmouth McAfee Complex 1250’ x 865’ ~ 25.8 acres Vehicle Bays McAfee Office Building ~ 100,000sf Support Buildings

Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS) at Fort Monmouth Princeton University Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS) at Fort Monmouth Exclusive Use Roadways Area ~ 60 acres Vehicle Bays McAfee Office Building ~ 100,000sf Support Buildings

Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS) Princeton University Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS) at Fort Monmouth Mixed Use Roadways ½ The Fort ~ 1 sq. mile Exclusive Use Roadways

Assets We Have: Many interested entities Enabling State Legislation S-734 passed NJ Senate 35-0 Assembly bill waiting to move. We can help. Option on Facilities McAffee Center Eastern Gated Test Site Limited use of Fort’s exiting roadways Many interested entities Universities: Princeton, UTRC2, U Md, Monmouth, NJIT Insurance: Munich Re, WSTIP, ICNJ, NJM, Technology Co: Siemens, MobilEye, Rosco, Soterea, Lam Cloud Foundations & Corporations: DCH Autogroup, Teen Safety Foundation, Comcast, Verizon, Public & non-Profits: NJ Transit, GCTC, APTA, ATRA, Consultants: HNTB, EPS, Public Sector: NJ DoT, MVC, PANYNJ, NJTPA, L&PS

Organizational Stucture: Example: Insurance Institute for Highway Safety http://www.guidestar.org/ReportOrganization.aspx?personid=JOHN%20MULLEN&ein=53-0246204 Mission Statement The Insurance institute for highway safety is an independent, nonprofit, scientific and educational organization it identifies and evaluates ways to reduce the human and economic losses resulting from motor vehicle crashes and communicates the results of that research to the public, federal, state, and local highway and vehicle safety officials, vehicle manufacturers, insurers, the media, the research community and others (IIHS) The NJ center for automated vehicles @ Ft. Monmouth is an independent, nonprofit, scientific and educational organization. It advances and evaluates automated vehicle technologies to reduce motor vehicle crashes and communicates the results of that research to the public, federal, state, and local highway and vehicle safety officials, vehicle manufacturers, insurers, the media, the research community and others (NJ CAV@FM)

Organizational Stucture: Example: Insurance Institute for Highway Safety http://www.guidestar.org/ReportOrganization.aspx?personid=JOHN%20MULLEN&ein=53-0246204 Impact Statement Research projects undertaken identify and evaluate methods of reducing the personal injuries and property damage resulting from the use of motor vehicles (IIHS) Research projects undertaken: Advancing AV Technologies that ($L) > ($C) Facilitating Fundamental R&D on enabling sensor and control technologies, and Vehicle<->driver/rider<->WWW<->Vehicle… interface elements Quantify the Expected Accident Probability implications of those AV Technologies. Test and Certify those AV Technologies Support Technically the Public Oversight/Regulation of those AV Technologies, and Support Technically the Commercialization of those AV Technologies (NJ CAV@FM)

Business Plan/Membership Stucture: Example: Insurance Institute for Highway Safety : 501 C6 http://www.guidestar.org/ReportOrganization.aspx?personid=JOHN%20MULLEN&ein=53-0246204 Membership: http://www.iihs.org/iihs/about-us/member-groups ~ 100 Members (Munich Re, USAA, Progressive, GEICO , … Not: WTSIP) & 3 “Funding Associations (American Insurance Association, National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies, Property Casualty Insurers Association of America )

Business Plan/Membership Stucture: Create a 501 c6 (Mon-profit Trade Association) Tax exempt Contributions not tax deductible Companies write-off contributions as business expense Revenue can not be funneled to a single partner/member Can participate in joint project with members as long as sponsoring entity funds Center and Member separately Proposed Membership levels For NJ-CAV@FT: Founding/Charter Members Supporting Members Affiliated Members Public Agency & Non-Profit Members University Members Associate Members

Business Plan/IPO (Initial Private Offering): All have an OPTION to Join at Chosen Level OPTION expires on April 1. Level Board composition Annual commitment pledged for four years Founding/Charter Members 1 per member, senior board positions $250,000/yr Supporting Members 0.3 per member Junior board positions $100,000./yr Public Agency & Non-Profit 0.25 per member Contract authority University Members 0.2 per member $5,000/yr Associate Member No board representation $25,000/yr

Supporting Collaborator Associate Collaborator Budget Center Membership (Revenue $ in thousands)   Founding/ Charter Supporting Collaborator Associate Collaborator Sum Revenue ($) Note Founder's Fee (one-time) $ 250 $ 100 $ 25 Annual Contribution $ 250 Founding Members 5 15 $ 1,875 EoY 1 Members 6 7 20 $ 2,375 EoY 2 Members 10 27 $ 3,000 Steady-state Members 12 34 $ 4,000 FTE/member EoY 1 2 1 0.5 4 FTE/member EoY 2 3 FTE/member Steady-state 16 Office Space (sf) EoY 1 1,800 1,050 525 3,375 150 sf/FTE Office Space (sf) EoY 2 3,150 3,000 750 6,900 Office Space (sf) S-S 15,000 9,000 900 24,900 Garage Space (# bays) EoY 1 1.75 0.7 Garage Space (# bays) EoY 2 2.5 Garage Space (# bays) S-S 14 1.2 18 Center Management (Expense$ in thousands)   Numbers Expenditure ($) Note Founding Staff 2 EoY 1 Staff 4 EoY 2 Staff 5 Steady-state Staff 7 Office Space (sf) Start 300 $ 6 150 sf/FTE @ $20/sf Office Space (sf) EoY 1 600 $ 12 Office Space (sf) EoY 2 750 $ 15 Office Space (sf) S-S 1,050 $ 21 Salary*2.5 ($) Start $ 625 $125 Overhead ($) EoY 1 $ 1,300 $130 Overhead ($) EoY 2 $ 1,688 $135 Overhead ($) S-S $ 2,450 $140 Research ($) EoY 1 $ 1,150 Revenue$-Office$-Salary$ Research ($) EoY 2 $ 950 Research ($) S-S $ 1,263

Value to Your Organization: Contributions from around the room

Strategic Market Alignment for Roadway Technologies (SMART) Meeting

AHS: Automated Highway Systems: 1939 - 1997 “Waterloo”: No feasible way to get started

V2V: Connected Vehicles: 1997 - “Waterloo”: Little value until a substantial market penetration is achieved. Again a non-starter

Automated Vehicles (rather than Automated Highways) : 2004 - Focus on making one Automated Vehicle co-exist with today’s infrastructure and human drivers; then simply replicate Real beauty is in its “autonomy” (forgo the “Systems” concept) : Each replicated vehicle benefits (Cost of Replication is Small) ! CityMobil2

A Capacity Bonus for NJ TRANSIT Exclusive Bus Lane (XBL) to New York City Source: Port Authority of New York and New Jersey

Port Authority Bus Terminal (PABT) New York City Source: Google Maps 2013