R/Evolution of SmartDrivingCars in the US Where did we come from; Where are we? Where are we going? by Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD Professor, ORFE (Operations Research & Financial Engineering) Director, CARTS (Consortium for Automated Road Transportation Safety) Faculty Chair, PAVE (Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering) Princeton University Presented at 2018 World Transport Convention June 19, 2018 Beijing, China

Have You Noticed??? Google/Waymo’s Buying Spree by Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD Professor, ORFE (Operations Research & Financial Engineering) Director, CARTS (Consortium for Automated Road Transportation Safety) Faculty Chair, PAVE (Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering) Princeton University Presented at ITS America 2018 June 5, 2018 Detroit, MI

Dynamics of Google/Waymo’s Deployment of Driverless Year 10K 100K 1K 1M 10M 100 10 1 Cars “Purchased” In 2009 Google/ Waymo went to the local Lexus Dealership and “purchase” about 2 Priuses 2009

Dynamics of Google/Waymo’s Deployment of Driverless Year 10K 100K 1K 1M 10M 100 10 1 Cars “Purchased” In 2012 Google/ Waymo went back to the local Lexus Dealership and “purchase” about 20 Lexus 2009 2012

Dynamics of Google/Waymo’s Deployment of Driverless Year 10K 100K 1K 1M 10M 100 10 1 Cars “Purchased” In about 2014-5 Google/Waymo built about 200 “Fireflies” 2009 2012 2014-5

Dynamics of Google/Waymo’s Deployment of Driverless Year 10K 100K 1K 1M 10M Cars “Purchased” Late in 2016, Google/Waymo bought about 2,000 Fiat-Chrysler Pacificas 2009 2012 2015 2017

Dynamics of Google/Waymo’s Deployment of Driverless Year 10K 100K 1K 1M 10M 100 10 1 Cars “Purchased” Early this year They ordered 2,000 Jaguar I-PACE electric cars 2009 2012 2015 2017 2018.2

Dynamics of Google/Waymo’s Deployment of Driverless Year 10K 100K 1K 1M 10M 100 10 1 > 10X every 2 years (Waymo’s Kornhauser Law) Cars “Purchased” A few weeks ago They ordered 60,000 more Fiat-Chrysler Pacificas. This curve is starting to look like a “hockey stick”! But it is a semi-log plot which means that the growth is greater than “exponential”. In the “Moore’s Law” context of continued rapid growth, I’ve suggested Waymo’s “Kornhauser Law”: Waymo’s Purchase of Driverless Cars grows by 10 times every two (2) years. That implies that in “2020” they’ll order 200,000 driverless cars and in 2022 they’ll order 2 million and by 2025 they’ll order enough to serve essentially every person Trip in the US during a typical day (about 20 Million autonomousTaxis would readily serve the about 1Billion vehicular personTrips that take place on a typical day. To do that well, the service must serve many personTrips on a shared ride basis and must complement existing high quality urban public transit and intercity rail and airplane services. More on that later. 2018.5 2009 2012 2015 2017 2018.2

+ 60,000 Chrysler Minivans

+ 60,000 Chrysler Minivans

Where will Waymo Deploy 20,000 + 60,000 autonomousTaxis Maybe they’ll “Spread the Mobility Experience” Start by operating 1K in 20 different “cities” Geo-fenced “communities of ~ 300,000” (serve 5% of personTrips) Add 2K to 1st 20 (grow to 15% personTrip share) + 1K in 20 more “Communities of 300k

Where will Waymo Deploy 20,000 autonomousTaxis Maybe they’ll “Spread the Mobility Experience” operate 1K in 20 different “cities” How about “Central New Jersey” ? Microcosm of USA Pop: ~300K Intra-area Trips/day: ~ 1.0M/day 1K aTaxis would serve ~ 5% personTrips Numerous Mobility Disadvantaged whose quality-of-life would be improved substantially! h

Discussion! Thank You alaink@princeton.edu www.SmartDrivingCar.com