Introduction & Guidelines For LULCC Workshop June 20, 2014 Scenario Planning Introduction & Guidelines For LULCC Workshop June 20, 2014

Outline What is scenario planning? Why and when to use scenario planning? Overview of the scenario planning process

What is scenario planning? A way of thinking about the future A tool to develop and test management strategies/decisions under a range of plausible futures NOT a tool to predict the probable future A “rehearsal” for the future

Why scenario planning? What we don’t know we don’t know Scenarios work here What we know we don’t know What we know Based on a slide by The Scenario Planning Institute, 2013

When to use scenario planning? From Peterson et al. 2003

1. Develop focal question What is the question that scenario planning will help you think about? Example: How can Mongolian pastoral systems adapt to a changing climate?

2. Identify key factors What are all the factors that affect your focal question? Adapted from The Scenario Planning Institute, 2013

2.2 Rank key factors by impact Which factors have the biggest impact? High Low IMPACT Adapted from The Scenario Planning Institute, 2013

3. Rank key factors by relative uncertainty High UNCERTAINTY Low Low IMPACT High Adapted from The Scenario Planning Institute, 2013

4. ID Critical Uncertainties High UNCERTAINTY Low Low IMPACT High Adapted from The Scenario Planning Institute, 2013

5. Develop Scenarios High High Low Low Adapted from The Scenario Planning Institute, 2013

Scenario Plan example From Weeks et al. 2011

Water Water Conservation Development Cottonwood Russian Olive Slight Climate Change Extreme Climate Change Colorado Blue Spruce Ponderosa Pine Water Conservation

6. Wind Tunneling High High Low Low Adapted from The Scenario Planning Institute, 2013