New Orleans Hospitality Outlook

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Presentation transcript:

New Orleans Hospitality Outlook October 10, 2017

Components of Hotel Occupancy

Group and Transient Occupancy Trend New Orleans Downtown Hotels STR: August 2017

STR: August 2017

2018 Monthly/Quarterly Convention Booking Outlook 1 Year Out 2018 as of 2017 LY % Chg 3 Yr % Chg Jan 104,163 -11.54% 7.67% Feb 89,170 32.65% 4.55% Mar 160,420 33.13% 33.08% Q1 353,753 15.80% 16.92% Apr 156,459 60.88% 23.06% May 122,783 1.19% -6.54% Jun 121,654 -18.85% -10.19% Q2 400,896 8.79% 1.76% Jul 105,230 -26.94% -11.97% Aug 78,207 26.90% 34.01% Sep 70,093 34.90% 24.97% Q3 253,530 -1.59% 8.35% Oct 148,435 45.23% 57.68% Nov 75,861 -40.29% -15.07% Dec 22,564 -57.87% -47.74% Q4 246,860 -12.71% 8.92% Total 1,255,039 3.35% 8.46%

Existing/New Hotel Inventory by Neighborhood

5,307 AirBnB Rentals Available in New Orleans Citywide Estimated Occupancy – 40.6% Estimated Nightly Rate - $200 Source: Inside AirBnB, Sept 2017

AirBnB Rates in Select Neighborhoods $187 $153 $195 $205 $252 $133 $321 $173 $225 $265 $180 $281 Source: Inside AirBnB, Sept 2017

New Orleans Occupancy and ADR 2017F Occ 2018F 2016 ADR 2017F ADR 2018F ADR New Orleans 68.7% 69.0% 69.1% $148.65 $147.57 $149.39 Atlanta 69.8% 69.4% $103.60 $106.55 $109.52 Dallas 71.4% 70.2% 69.7% $103.50 $105.36 $107.19 Houston 62.3% 59.9% 59.4% $104.65 $104.21 $104.35 Nashville 74.7% 73.4% 72.1% $134.48 $138.08 $141.58 Orlando 75.5% 76.3% 76.0% $115.96 $119.92 $122.79

New Orleans Occupancy and ADR vs. US   Occupancy (growth) ADR (growth) 2016 2017 YTD 2017F 2018F Total United States 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% -0.2% 3.1% 2.3% 2.5% New Orleans, LA -1.3% 0.4% -1.0% -0.7% 1.2% Source: Smith Travel Research, Sept 2017

Market Occ ADR Market Occ ADR 2017 Growth Rank Growth 2018 Growth Rank    2017 Growth Rank Growth Market Occ ADR 1 Seattle, WA 2.2% 4.8% 2 Norfolk-Virginia Beach, VA 3.0% 2.4% 3 Washington, DC-MD-VA 0.0% 5.1% 4 Orlando, FL 1.1% 3.4% 5 Detroit, MI 1.0% 6 Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA -0.3% 4.7% 7 San Diego, CA 3.2% 8 Oahu Island, HI -0.2% 4.2% 9 Tampa-St Petersburg, FL -0.5% 3.8% 10 Phoenix, AZ -0.4% 3.6% 11 Atlanta, GA -0.6% 2.8% 12 Chicago, IL 0.3% 1.5% 13 St Louis, MO-IL -0.9% 2.6% 14 Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA 2.0% 15 Boston, MA 1.9% 16 Nashville, TN -1.8% 2.7% 17 Denver, CO -1.5% 18 New York, NY 0.9% -0.7% 19 Dallas, TX -1.6% 1.8% 20 Philadelphia, PA-NJ -1.3% 1.4% 21 Minneapolis St Paul, MN-WI -1.0% 22 San Francisco-San Mateo, CA 0.2% 23 New Orleans, LA 0.4% 24 Miami-Hialeah, FL -2.1% 25 Houston, TX -3.7%    2018 Growth Rank Growth Market Occ ADR 1 San Francisco-San Mateo, CA 0.7% 3.4% 2 Tampa-St Petersburg, FL 0.3% 3.6% 3 San Diego, CA -0.4% 4.0% 4 Oahu Island, HI 2.7% 5 Seattle, WA 0.6% 2.6% 6 Minneapolis St Paul, MN-WI 2.4% 7 Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA 0.2% 2.8% 8 Detroit, MI 0.8% 2.1% 9 St Louis, MO-IL 1.9% 10 Atlanta, GA -0.1% 11 Boston, MA 1.1% 1.6% 12 Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA 2.9% 13 Phoenix, AZ 1.7% 14 Denver, CO -0.3% 15 Philadelphia, PA-NJ 0.0% 16 Orlando, FL -0.5% 17 Chicago, IL -0.2% 2.0% 18 Washington, DC-MD-VA -0.6% 2.2% 19 New Orleans, LA 0.1% 1.2% 20 Norfolk-Virginia Beach, VA 1.5% 21 New York, NY 22 Dallas, TX -0.7% 23 Nashville, TN -1.8% 2.5% 24 Miami-Hialeah, FL -1.2% 25 Houston, TX -0.8%

Growth of Supply, Demand & Revenue   Supply (room nights, growth) Demand (room nights, growth) Revenue (USD, growth) 2016 2017 YTD 2017F 2018F Total United States 1.5% 1.8% 2.0% 2.1% 1.6% 2.5% 1.9% 4.7% 4.9% 4.3% 4.4% Top 25 Markets Anaheim/Santa Ana, CA 2.8% 2.2% 2.3% 7.1% 6.5% 4.8% Atlanta, GA 1.4% 0.9% 7.5% 3.7% 5.0% Boston, MA 3.4% 2.7% 1.2% 0.4% 4.2% 3.9% Chicago, IL 0.5% 2.6% 4.1% Dallas, TX 3.1% 3.2% 8.0% 3.5% 4.5% Denver, CO 3.6% 4.0% 1.1% 2.9% 2.4% 6.6% 5.9% Detroit, MI 5.7% 8.5% 6.9% Houston, TX 5.6% 4.6% -3.9% 0.7% -7.5% 1.0% 0.2% Los Angeles/Long Beach, CA -0.1% 10.8% 5.5% Miami/Hialeah, FL 3.3% -1.5% -0.9% Minneapolis/St Paul, MN-WI 3.8% 3.0% 9.1% 5.1% Nashville, TN 10.3% 6.8% New Orleans, LA 1.7% New York, NY 5.2% 5.8% 5.3% Norfolk/Virginia Beach, VA 0.1% 6.7% 8.1% Oahu Island, HI 5.4% 0.6% 9.4% 7.3% Orlando, FL -0.4% Philadelphia, PA-NJ Phoenix, AZ 6.4% San Diego, CA San Francisco/San Mateo, CA 0.8% -0.7% -1.8% Seattle, WA 11.6% 10.1% St Louis, MO-IL Tampa/St Petersburg, FL Washington, DC-MD-VA 1.3% 6.3% 9.7%

Supply year-end (% growth in average rooms at year-end)   2016 2017F 2018F Total United States 1.7% 2.2% 2.1% Top 25 Markets Anaheim/Santa Ana, CA 3.1% 3.0% 0.9% Atlanta, GA 1.3% 1.9% 2.7% Boston, MA 4.5% 2.3% 2.8% Chicago, IL 1.5% 2.9% Dallas, TX 3.4% Denver, CO 3.5% 4.6% Detroit, MI 0.8% Houston, TX 6.3% 3.9% Los Angeles/Long Beach, CA 0.3% 4.1% Miami/Hialeah, FL 4.7% Minneapolis/St Paul, MN-WI 6.2% 1.0% Nashville, TN New Orleans, LA 3.3% 1.1% New York, NY 5.1% 3.8% Norfolk/Virginia Beach, VA -1.2% 0.7% Oahu Island, HI 0.4% 2.6% Orlando, FL Philadelphia, PA-NJ 2.0% Phoenix, AZ 1.4% 0.6% San Diego, CA San Francisco/San Mateo, CA 0.5% Seattle, WA 4.4% St Louis, MO-IL 1.2% Tampa/St Petersburg, FL -1.3% Washington, DC-MD-VA 1.8% 2.5% 2.4%

Bottom Line New Orleans hospitality industry is strong through 2017 Remains strong through 2018 City is not overbuilt in hotel inventory as long as transient demand remains strong 2018: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4