JIT: Ebola Weekly Update 21 January, 2015 Lets Beat Ebola in 2015 Rashid A. Chotani, MD, MPH Adjunct Professor, GWU Chotani@gwu.edu lecture by Rashid A. Chotani Uploading date: January 27, 2015  Original file - http://www.pitt.edu/~super7/52011-53001/52971.ppt   Bibliotheca Alexandrina(BA) Just in Time (JIT) Ebola Virus Disease Supercourse http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/ResearchMethods/Ebola.htm

Highlights as of 21 January, 2014 Total Reported Cases = 21,724 [HCW: 828] Total Reported Deaths = 8,641 [HCW: 499] Overall CFR = ~40% [~60%] Case incidence Case incidence continues to fall in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, with a halving time of 1.4 weeks in Guinea, 2.0 weeks Liberia, and 2.7 weeks in Sierra Leone A combined total of 145 confirmed cases were reported from the 3 countries in the week to 18 January: 20 in Guinea, 8 in Liberia, and 117 in Sierra Leone Mali has been declared free of EVD after completing 42 days since the last case tested negative Surveillance and information sharing will be increased in the border districts of Guinea-Bissau, Côte d’Ivoire, Mali and Senegal adjacent to the 3 intense-transmission countries Each of the intense-transmission countries has sufficient capacity to isolate and treat patients, with more than 2 treatment beds per reported confirmed, probable and suspected case The planned numbers of beds in each country has now been reduced in accordance with falling case incidence Each country has sufficient capacity to bury all people known to have died from EVD People aged 45 and over are almost 4 times more likely to be affected than are children Phase-3 trials of two candidate Ebola vaccines are set to begin at the end of January and early February in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea It will take about six months for results from the phase-3 trials to be known The production of vaccines will go on while the trials are underway Huge stock of millions of doses of vaccine available by mid-year Source: WHO/CDC/SOS International/ProMed Source: WHO/CDC/SOS International/ProMed

Weekly Cases as of 21 January, 2015 These numbers are subject to change due to ongoing reclassification, retrospective investigation and availability of laboratory results. Source: WHO/CDC/SOS International Senegal declared outbreak free: 17 October Nigeria declared outbreak free: 19 October Spain declared outbreak free: 02 December Mali declared outbreak free: 21 January Mali 8 Cases & 6 Deaths Nigeria 20 Cases & 8 Deaths USA 4 Cases & 1 Death Senegal 1 Case 0 Death Spain 1 Case 0 Death UK/Scotland 1 Case 0 Death These numbers are subject to change due to ongoing reclassification, retrospective investigation and availability of laboratory results. Source: WHO/CDC/SOS International

Weekly HCW Status as of 21 January 2015 For each country the first three bars represent cases & the subsequent three bars represent deaths NOT New Cases* *The marked increase from the total of HCW infections reported last week is due to additional cases reported from Sierra Leone that have occurred since the onset of the epidemic. These are not infections that have occurred between the two most recent reporting periods. These numbers are subject to change due to ongoing reclassification, retrospective investigation and availability of laboratory results. Source: WHO/CDC/SOS International Total Cases 828 Total Deaths 499 Case-Fatality Rate ~ 60% One death in USA was a HCW infected in Guinea Mali 2 Cases & 1 Deaths Nigeria 11 Cases & 5 Deaths USA 3 Cases & 1 Death Spain 1 Case 0 Death UK 1 Case 0 Death *The marked increase from the total of HCW infections reported last week is due to additional cases reported from Sierra Leone that have occurred since the onset of the epidemic. These are not infections that have occurred between the two most recent reporting periods. These numbers are subject to change due to ongoing reclassification, retrospective investigation and availability of laboratory results. Source: WHO/CDC/SOS International

Overall Status as of 21 January, 2015 Guinea reported its lowest weekly total of new confirmed EVD cases since the week ending 17 August 2014. Case numbers remain low in Liberia, with no confirmed cases nationally for the final 2 days of the week ending 11 January, and the lowest weekly total of confirmed cases since the first week of June 2014. Sierra Leone has now reported a decline in case incidence for the second week running, and recorded its lowest weekly total of new confirmed cases since the week ending 31 August 2014. These numbers are subject to change due to ongoing reclassification, retrospective investigation and availability of laboratory results. Source: WHO These numbers are subject to change due to ongoing reclassification, retrospective investigation and availability of laboratory results. Source: WHO

Cumulative number of confirmed and probable cases by Gender and Age Strata in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone Country Cumulative Cases By Gender* (per 100,000 population) By Age Strata# Male Female 0-14 years 15-44 years 45+ years Guinea 1341 (25) 1438 (26) 443 (10) 1572 (34) 742 (47) Liberia 2538 (128) 2444 (124) 831 (48) 2653 (155) 1015 (190) Sierra Leone 4879 (171) 5150 (178) 2243 (93) 5634 (218) 2331 (315) Total 8758 9032 3517 9859 4088 These numbers are subject to change due to ongoing reclassification, retrospective investigation and availability of laboratory results. Source: UNDESA/WHO NOTE: Total for Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea where sex is known but age may not be known. Cases per capita are available in the WHO external situation report. Population figures are based on estimates from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. *Excludes cases for which data is not available on gender. #Excludes cases for which data on age are not available. These numbers are subject to change due to ongoing reclassification, retrospective investigation and availability of laboratory results. Source: UNDESA/WHO

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