The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in Italy.

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The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in Italy. The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in Italy. (A) Seroprevalence rates by age as observed in a serosurvey conducted at the end of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in Italy (55) and as estimated by the calibrated model. (B) Epidemic growth rate over time r(t) as estimated from the weekly incidence of new ILI cases in Italy over the course of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic and the best-fitting linear model from week 35 to week 41 in 2009 (scale on the left axis). Weekly incidence of new ILI cases in Italy over the course of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic (scale on the right axis). Data are available at the ISS Influnet website (old.iss.it/flue/). Note that, over the period from week 35 to week 51 in 2009, schools were regularly open in Italy. (C) Temporal pattern of the mean weekly exponential epidemic growth rate (r) resulting from the analysis of the data-driven model calibrated on the 2009 H1N1 influenza seroprevalence data. The colored area shows the density distribution of r(t) values obtained in the single realizations of the data-driven model. Quan-Hui Liu et al. PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.1811115115 ©2018 by National Academy of Sciences