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Presentation transcript:

Constantly forgotten Hein Stigum Presentation, data and programs at: http://folk.uio.no/heins/ Talks, Constantly forgotten Confounding and interaction, Kleinbaum and Kupper, Jægtvolden Nov-18 Nov-18 H.S. 1

Agenda Example Concepts Methods Prevalence, risk and odds Regression models RD RR OR Nov-18 Nov-18 H.S. 2

Smoking among 10th graders ? What is the probability that my 10th grader is smoking? Nov-18 Nov-18 H.S. 3

Constant term, sex Constant term, intercept Nov-18 Nov-18 H.S. 4

Constant term, age Nov-18 Nov-18 H.S. 5

Prevalence and risk Prevalence Incidence proportion Risk of having disease Incidence proportion Risk of getting disease Having a cold Having a disease prone gene Nov-18 Nov-18 H.S. 6

Generalized linear models, GLM Smoking as outcome y=0/1, x = covariates E(y|x) = P(y=1|x) = p family: y|x~Binomial identity RD link: log RR logit OR Nov-18 Nov-18 H.S. 7

RD versus RR and OR 1 RD -1 1  RR, OR Nov-18

Linear binomial model, RD Variable RD Confidence interval Risk at reference 0.000 Sex Boy Girl 0.120 (0.107 , 0.132) Parents marital status Living together Single 0.104 (0.088 , 0.119) Educational plans Academic Secondary 3 years 0.057 (0.027 , 0.088) Secondary 1 year 0.107 (0.069 , 0.145) Vocational 0.130 (0.113 , 0.147) Family economy Well off Short of mony 0.086 (0.038 , 0.134) Girl, with single parents, academic plans and well off: Prevalence= 0.000+0.120+0.104=0.223 =22.3% Nov-18 Nov-18 H.S. 9

Log binomial model, RR Girl, with single parents, Variable RR Confidence interval Risk at reference 0.043 Sex Boy 1 Girl 2.45 (2.21 , 2.72) Parents marital status Living together Single 1.94 (1.77 , 2.12) Educational plans Academic Secondary 3 years 1.55 (1.26 , 1.90) Secondary 1 year 2.04 (1.68 , 2.46) Vocational 2.26 (2.05 , 2.48) Family economy Well off Short of mony 1.45 (1.21 , 1.74) Girl, with single parents, academic plans and well off: Prevalence= 0.043 * 2.45 * 1.94=0.203 =20.3% Nov-18 Nov-18 H.S. 10

Odds and probability Nov-18 Nov-18 H.S. 11

Disease frequency depicted Show: Prevalence Incidence proportion, closed pop, no loss to follow up Incidence rate, takes observation time into account, (could also have loss to follow up) Nov-18 Nov-18 H.S. 12

Logistic model, OR Girl, with single parents, Variable OR Confidence interval Odds at reference 0.039 Sex Boy 1 Girl 3.01 (2.65 , 3.41) Parents marital status Living together Single 2.30 (2.05 , 2.58) Educational plans Academic Secondary 3 years 1.70 (1.31 , 2.19) Secondary 1 year 2.44 (1.90 , 3.13) Vocational 2.82 (2.49 , 3.19) Family economy Well off Short of mony 1.71 , 2.24) Girl, with single parents, academic plans and well off: Prevalence odds= 0.039 * 3.01 * 2.30=0.269 Prevalence=21.2% Nov-18 Nov-18 H.S. 13

Summing up Reporting constant Technical Increases information a lot! 0 must be part of the range Not for traditional Case Control Nov-18 Nov-18 H.S. 14