From Parsons et al (2001).

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Presentation transcript:

from Parsons et al (2001)

Parsons et al (2001)

Bay area shocks during the 75 years before 1906

Bay area shocks during the 75 years after 1906

Bay area is a system of roughly parallel faults

Bay area faults may have fallen under a stress shadow in 1906 from Harris & Simpson (1998) and Parsons (2003)

1992 M=7.3 Landers shock increases stress at Big Bear Landers Big Bear Los Angeles First 3 hr of Landers aftershocks plotted from Stein (2003)

1992 M=7.3 Landers shock promotes the M=6.5 Big Bear shock 3 hr later Los Angeles First 3 hr of Landers aftershocks plotted from Stein (2003)

…and promotes the M=7.1 Hector Mine shock 7 yr later Hector Mine Los Angeles First 7 yr of aftershocks plotted from Stein (2003)

Earthquakes converse through the transfer of stress

Shinji Toda

Tom Parsons Tom Parsons

Aykut Barka 1952-2002

Jian Lin

Jim Dieterich

Now what? å

But can one explain the time decay?