LEAN DECISION MAKING CHOOSING BY ADVANTAGES PhD Randi Christensen, Head of Lean, Value Management and Innovation, Lower Thames Crossing, COWI

We have a responsibility to do our best!

Considerations Environment Safety Stakeholders Communities Client

How do we make decisions?

Lower Thames Crossing £3.5-6.8bn, 4 km tunnel, 23 km new roads Meeting the needs of the communities affected by the scheme and ensuring they have their say Improving performance on local roads and the Strategic Road Network Environment, sustainability, Third Party Infrastructure ……

PREFERRED ROUTE ANNOUNCEMENT STATUTORY CONSULTATION DCO APPLICATION APPLICATION PREPARATION: Environmental Impact Assessment Land Referencing Planning Statement PREFERRED ROUTE ANNOUNCEMENT STATUTORY CONSULTATION DCO APPLICATION April 2017 2018 2019 STUDIES: Environmental Traffic Modelling Ground Investigations DESIGN FINALISATION DESIGN DEVELOPMENT DCO GRANTED; START ON SITE OPENING 2027 Still at an early stage and we have some challenges to overcome We considered the +47,000 responses very carefully, carried out further assessment of the options before making our recommendation to Government. We will further develop the design and assessment of the preferred route, informed by this consultation feedback. Next stage includes environmental surveys, more detailed air quality, noise, visual and land impact assessments, further traffic modelling, assessment of a three-lane rather than two-lane route, and design work around, for example, the number of junctions. There will be further opportunities to comment on the proposals, through further public consultation which will be undertaken as part of the statutory planning and consents process. We are already engaging with local communities and businesses, as well as land and property owners to help them understand potential impacts, their options and their rights. As we develop the design of the scheme we will be taking into account plans and proposals for the South East. The Growth Commission, the South East Local Enterprise Partnership, Kent and Essex County Councils and others have set out ambitious plans for the area and have made it clear that a new crossing is essential to help make these plans a reality. We will continue to work with these and other organisations and local communities to deliver a scheme that best meets the needs of road users, communities, the environment and business. CONTINUOUS ENGAGEMENT

What type of decisions? A conscious choice between alternatives Prediction of outcome and risks Multiple criteria

Example: Choose a construction method A is more safe than B B is 10 times more productive than A Both A and B are safe and comply with regulations All rises. If you choose B sit down! A is significant more safe than B B is 10 times more productive than A However both A and B is safe and live up to regulations. A is just slightly more safe.

Example: Choose a construction method Alternative A Alternative B Safety Very Safe Safe Productivity Productive 10 x more productive than Alternative A All rises. If you choose B sit down! A is significant more safe than B B is 10 times more productive than A However both A and B is safe and live up to regulations. A is just slightly more safe. But what about cost? Your company’s reputation? Are you payed by the hour? Other risks? Environment? If there were 5 alternatives?

Have you ever heard?

Transparency Building Consensus Continuous learning A process that can be trusted and documented Outcomes that can be efficiently documented and communicated Transparency Optimising the whole – not the pieces Avoids conflicts and power games All teams are heard Building Consensus Enables iterations and learning Saves time and resources in a structured process Continuous learning

CBA developed by Jim Suhr (1999) CBA was developed by Jim Suhr . If wou are interested in learning more about CBA, you can read heis book, called “the choosing by advantages decisión making system” or attend to his 2-day workshops.

Process From Paz Arroyo 1. Identify alternatives 2. Define factors 3. Define must have/want to have criteria for each factor 4. Describe the attributes of each alternative 5. Decide the advantages of each alternative 6. Decide the importance of each advantage 7. Evaluate cost data Process 27/11/2018 From Paz Arroyo

Example Decision: Location of the tunnel portal Example Case Step 1: Identify the alternatives Short Tunnel? Long Tunnel? This is a constructed and simplified decision to illustrate the CBA method

Example Case Step 2: Define factors & Step 3: Define criteria Underline the least preferred attribute in each factor Factor (Criterion) Short Tunnel Long Tunnel Env. impact – distance to RAMSAR (greater is better) Noise & air quality – distance from houses (greater is better) Construction programme (Less is better) Supports local redevelopment (More is better) Total Importance This is a constructed and simplified decision to illustrate the CBA method

Example Case Step 4: Describe the attributes of each alternative Underline the least preferred attribute in each factor Factor (Criterion) Short Tunnel Long Tunnel Env. impact – distance to RAMSAR (greater is better) Att: c.20m to RAMSAR site Att: c.1200m to RAMSAR site Noise & air quality – distance from houses (greater is better) Att:  c.400m to houses Att: c.1000m to houses Construction programme (Less is better) Att: No increase to programme Att:  3 month increase to programme Supports local redevelopment (More is better) Att: £0 potential redevelopment value Att: £20m+ potential redevelopment value Total Importance This is a constructed and simplified decision to illustrate the CBA method

Example Case Step 5: Decide the advantages of each alternative Factor (Criterion) Short Tunnel Long Tunnel Env. impact – distance to RAMSAR (greater is better) Att: c.20m to RAMSAR site Att: c.1200m to RAMSAR site Adv: c.1180m greater Noise & air quality – distance from houses (greater is better) Att:  c.400m to houses Att: c.1000m to houses Adv: 600m greater Construction programme (Less is better) Att: No increase to programme Att:  3 month increase to programme Adv: 3 months less Supports local redevelopment (More is better) Att: £0 potential redevelopment value Att: £20m+ potential redevelopment value Total Importance Adv: £20m+ more This is a constructed and simplified decision to illustrate the CBA method

Example Case Step 6: Decide the importance of the advantages Factor (Criterion) Short Tunnel Long Tunnel Env. impact – distance to RAMSAR (greater is better) Att: c.20m to RAMSAR site Att: c.1200m to RAMSAR site Adv: c.1180m greater Imp: 80 Noise & air quality – distance from houses (greater is better) Att:  c.400m to houses Att: c.1000m to houses Adv: 600m greater Imp:70 Construction programme (Less is better) Att: No increase to programme Att:  3 month increase to programme Adv: 3 months less Imp:100 Supports local redevelopment (More is better) Att: £0 potential redevelopment value Att: £20m+ potential redevelopment value Adv: £20m+ more Imp: 40 Total Importance 100 190 This is a constructed and simplified decision to illustrate the CBA method

Scale of Importance 100 No increase to programme 90 80  Greater distance to RAMSAR 70  Greater distance to houses 60 50 40 Greater redevelopment value 30 20 10 This is a constructed and simplified decision to illustrate the CBA method

Choosing by Advantages Prioritise preparation  Explore alternatives and value added opportunities Start documentation up front (A3) Facilitate to give the opportunity to listen, think and speak (facts and opinions should be separate) All CBA decisions are based on the importance of advantages and a recommendation is reached in plenum

Feedback from the team "…I have been impressed by the sense of shared ownership that CBA has instilled in the team, and the momentum which is now emerging. I know we are now taking decisions on a "best-for-project" basis, and that has given me the confidence we can deliver."  Chris Walker, Technical Integration Manager "…CBA provides a sound and consistent process for identifying and weighing up all of the relevant considerations, and is likely to be viewed as a positive thing by external stakeholders." Tim Wright, DCO Lead 

Get in touch From improvement culture to innovations RMCH@COWI.COM For more information on CBA. Free webinar November 8! www.collabdecisions.com