Calm Before the Storm The Recession’s Impact on Homelessness

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Presentation transcript:

Calm Before the Storm The Recession’s Impact on Homelessness Nick Falvo Carleton University Canadian Economics Association Annual Conference May 28-30, 2010 Quebec City

Outline of Presentation Historical Impact of Recessions The 2008-2009 Recession Impact on the Ground The Lag Effect Policy Responses Policy Recommendation

Strong Historical Link The United States Canada

Which Recession Will Be Worse for Homelessness? 1990-1991 2008-2009 Depth of GDP Drop 3.4% 3.6% Length of GDP Drop 4 Quarters 3 Quarters ↓ in Unemployment Rate 4.2 % 2.5% Household Debt $0.91 $1.40 UI/EI Coverage 81-85% 39-45% Social Assistance $11,400 $7,352 CCTB/NCB (OCB) N.A. $3,300 ($1,100) UCCB $100/month per child Social Housing (Ontario) 7,000 New Units Annually 2,250 New Units Annually Homelessness Services Sparse Comprehensive

Social Assistance

Shelter Occupancy

Toronto 1988-1996 Average Nightly Shelter Occupancy

Policy Responses $1 billion: Social Housing Repair $475 million: Affordable Housing for Seniors and Disabled

Policy Recommendation Rent Supplements/Shelter Allowances

Thank You