Anatomy of the Blockchain Evolution
Global Blockchain $7.7b ‘24 Public Transportation Sector Healthcare Tech, Media, Telecoms Consumer Products Financial Services ▲ http://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/ blockchain-technology-market ▲ CAGR - Compounded Annual Growth Rate
Adoption Curve ▲ Blockchain Industry Adoption Innovators 2.5% Early Adopters 13.5% Early Majority 34% Late Majority 34% Laggards 16% 2017 2008 2013 2022-27F ? ? time Satoshi Nakamoto White Paper ICOs & Altcoin Blockchains Mainstream Recognition “Diffusion of Innovations” by Everett Rogers, ©1995 ▲ Geoffrey A. Moore, Crossing the Chasm, ©1999
Trough of Disillusionment Blockchain Hype Cycle 2017 Plateau of Productivity Peak of Inflated Expectations Slope of Enlightenment Trough of Disillusionment Technology Trigger
Cryptocurrency Balancing Act Threats? Regulation Anonymity vs. Control vs. Decentralization? Scalability Transactions per second Blockchain size, mining latency Stability Vertical & Horizontal markets Opportunity Efficiency Less middle-men Programmatic Trust Cost Savings Automated, Optimized, Open Source Big Data Analytics International, Sharing, Humanitarian
Blockchain Opportunities Statistical Humanitarian Analysis Research Data Data Mining Analytics Blockchain Financial Currency Payments Insurance Trading Crowd Funding Government Criminal Records Land Registration Voting Notary Birth & Death Certificates Internet of Things Smart Homes Self-driving Cars Robots & Drones Intelligent Devices Medical Medical History Genome Mapping Patient Records Life Diary ICT Super Computing Data Statistics P2P Resourcing Distributed Databases ▲ ICT = Information Communication Technology
1. Online Remittance 250x cheaper 2+ billion 4+ billion 5+ billion No Access to Banking No Access to Internet No Access to Int’l finance 5%-30% fees Europe: $620 billion Global: $6900 billion M. East: $180 billion OECD: $4000 billion A. Pac: $1100 billion 4+ billion S. Asia: $300 billion Africa: $150 billion 5+ billion LA: $530 billion 250x cheaper ▲ www.worldbank.org ▲ http://www.internetlivestats.com/internet-users/ ▲ http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/video/2016/03/10/2 -billion-number-of-adults-worldwide-without-access-to -formal-financial-services
Contracts That Execute Autonomously When Certain Conditions Are Met 2. Smart Contracts Programmable Money Escrow Savings Accounts Domain Name Registry Crowd Funding Market Prediction Contracts That Execute Autonomously When Certain Conditions Are Met Self-Enforced Contracts Voting Systems Corporate Governance Property Ownership Intellectual Property Insurance Contracts
3. Smart Assets Internet of Things Intelligent Devices by 2020 Unique Key Asset Exchange Digitally Authenticated Inventory & Tracking Intelligent Devices by 2020 26 billion devices 7 trillion US$ market Real estate – land registration Corporate assets Automobile – used or new
4. Humanitarian Curing Disease? ICANN ▲ NATO ▲ UN OECD ▲ WHO ▲ G7 Global Administration Data Freedom Shared infrastructure Shared Research Increased Transparency Curing Disease? ▲ G7 = Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, & USA ▲ OECD = Organization for Economic Co-operation & Development ▲ NATO = North Atlantic Treaty Organization ▲ ICANN = Internet Corporation for Assigned Names & Numbers ▲ WHO = World Health Organization ▲ UN = United Nations
Open Source & Transparent Redundancy & High Availability Blockchain Ideology Programmed Trust Central Control Audited By Anyone Assumed Trust Open Source & Transparent Proprietary Systems Redundancy & High Availability Single Point of Failure Minimal Fees Middle Men Anonymous Users Big Brother
Early Bird gets the Worm, But the 2nd Mouse gets the Cheese Is Disruptive Blockchain Issues Scalability & Latency Mining Control Hacking Scandals Criminals Terrorists Regulation & Bans Blockchain is currently around 80GB – or equivalent to around 16 HD movies - Phone: invented in 1876, regulated in 1913 (37 years later). - Aircrafts: invented in 1903, regulated in 1938 (35 years later). - Radio: invented in 1907, regulated in 1927 (20 years later). - Cell phones: invented in 1965, the first FCC wireless spectrum bidding process focused on mobile data in 1989 (24 years later) - Internet: invented in 1969, it has only become an area with intense regulatory focus in recent years, nearly 46 years after its development. Scalability Can only operate 7 transactions per second https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/top-10-countries-bitcoin-banned/ Bangladesh, Bolivia, China, Ecuador, Iceland, India, Russia, Sweden, Thailand, Vietnam Hacking Scandals Building resilient system constantly under open attack 24/7 (remember early Internet DNS attacks) Mining Centralization Centralization temporary; wide-spread at higher-scale; move to 16 nm, solar/hydro-powered chips China has more than 50% bitcoin mining power, the largest mining farm, fastest machines and its exchanges account for more than 50% of bitcoin trades. Mt. Gox, Ethereum DAO Silk Road, drug dealers, terrorists, criminals Blockchains are a universal technology available to all; non-criminal activity predominates National government regulation, bans Governments modernizing economic infrastructure with blockchains too; licensing, open dialogue Early Bird gets the Worm, But the 2nd Mouse gets the Cheese
Blockchain Evolution 1.0 2.0 3.0 Freedom of Money Freedom of Markets Open Ledger Anonymity Decentralized Transactions Smart Money Freedom of Markets Legal Services Internet of Things Healthcare Smart Assets & Contracts Freedom of Information Global Sharing Humanitarian Research Int’l Statistics Chaining Blockchains 1.0 2.0 3.0 Chaining Blockchains
9 out of 10 People Initially View Change as a Threat Are you the one Who Sees Opportunity? ▲ Dan Regan, https://www.facebook.com/DanReganCreative/