Questions about Climate Change & Biomass Energy Al Lucier, NCASI NCASI Biometrics Working Group March 2009

Is climate changing ? Where? Why ? How much ? Are forests at risk ? At risk of what ? How is climate changing? Warmer? Drier? Wetter? More Storms? Should we be updating forest management models of species – site relationships, stand growth & yield, treatment response, risk, etc. ? Should we plant loblolly pine in Pennsylvania ?

Are forests already changing in ways indicative of climate change impacts ? Growth increases ? Increases in mortality ? Where ? Is it possible to measure the relative contributions of climate and other factors to any observed changes in forest health and productivity ?

What effects could a federal “cap and trade” program have on forest management and wood supplies? What assumptions are necessary to model rational responses of forest managers to “carbon trading” opportunities? Future prices of forest carbon and wood Rules for “counting and accounting” forest carbon Transaction and opportunity costs of carbon trading How will “cap & trade” affect GDP, housing starts, pulp production, & demand for biomass energy?

Leading Ideas of “Cap & Trade” Proponents Major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are needed by 2050 to prevent a climate catastrophe. Threat of climate catastrophe and nation’s “addiction” to imported oil justifies breathtaking expansion of government control of US economy. In brief, federal government would design and manage a complex system that includes: Energy rationing Energy price controls Energy taxation Redistribution of energy tax revenues

What effects could biomass energy have on forest management and wood supplies? What are some plausible demand scenarios? What faction of FIA timber inventory is available for harvest at any realistic price? How and why are inventories changing? What are the potential capacities of wood production systems in the US? What are the barriers to realizing the potential capacities of wood production systems?

Total / Merchantable Biomass for Several FIA Forest Types in Georgia Longleaf Pine 1.27 Loblolly Pine 1.36 Loblolly / Hardwood 1.41 Red Oak, White Oak, Hickory 1.34 Mixed Upland Hardwoods 1.48

US Forest Area Trends

Veracel Before

Veracel Today

Harvesting at Veracel