The Model Web for Ecological Forecasting Gary Geller Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena, CA USA 22 September 2007 GEOSS Climate Change Workshop Boulder, CO

The Modeler’s Dilemma Its hard to make predictions, particularly about the future How can predictive capabilities be improved?

Improve existing models Solutions Improve existing models Create new models Increase model interoperability or or There are two ways to increase accessibility. Training is one, and is excellent. But it is expensive and also not for everybody. Alternatively, TerraLook takes the approach of just making the data and tools easier to find and use.

Model Web Improve existing models Create new models Solutions Improve existing models Create new models Increase model interoperability or or There are two ways to increase accessibility. Training is one, and is excellent. But it is expensive and also not for everybody. Alternatively, TerraLook takes the approach of just making the data and tools easier to find and use. Model Web

Typical Questions for Ecological Forecasting As the climate changes, can rare species X still exist within my park in 2057? What are the implications of climate change for the frequency and intensity of fire within my park? I need to restore part of my park: which management option is best?

Model Web: 5-10+ Year Vision (1/2) Distributed network of interoperating models (and datasets and sensors) Data format and terminology issues resolved Scope includes physical, chemical, biological, and ecological processes

Model Web: 5-10+ Year Vision (2/2) Grows organically within framework of broad goals and data exchange standards Models and datasets maintained, operated, and served independently Web access provided to researchers, managers, public…

Model and Data Space Model A Model B Dataset 1 Model C Portal Model G Model B Dataset 1 Model C Dataset 3 Portal Model D Dataset 2 Portal Model F Dataset 4 Model E

CC and Species Distribution Global Climate Model As the climate changes, can rare species X still exist within my park in 2057? TOPS Fire Model Landscape Model G E O S S Regional Climate Model Niche Model Species distribution

Initial Demonstration System Global Climate Dataset GEOSS Biodiversity IP3 project TOPS G E O S S Regional Climate Dataset Niche Model Species distribution

TOPS System Growth G E O S S Global Climate Dataset Fire Model Regional Climate Dataset Niche Model Species distribution

TOPS System Growth G E O S S Global Climate Dataset Fire risk, Intensity, etc Possible Landscapes TOPS Fire Model Landscape Model G E O S S Regional Climate Dataset Niche Model Species distribution

Model and Data Space Model A Model B Dataset 1 Model C Portal Model G Model B Dataset 1 Model C Dataset 3 Portal Model D Dataset 2 Portal Model F Dataset 4 Model E

REAL Model and Data Space Portal Portal Portal

Portal Concepts Anyone can set up a portal Decide what questions to address Decide what models to use Understand topic Provides an “answer”… But is not an automated “Decision Support System” A source of information

Next Steps Build demonstration system Continue to explore the concept Talk more with GEOSS, modelers, users… Address interoperability barriers