TRIMODE model & rail O/D data Paolo BOLSI, DG MOVE A3, Economic Analysis & Better Regulation Eurostat Rail Transport Statistics Working Group Luxembourg, 15-16 June 2017

Summary 1. TRIMODE model overview 2. Freight data overview – all modes 3. Rail freight data – gaps, issues and actions 4. Rail passenger data - gaps, issues and actions 5. Why TRIMODE needs freight segmentation by NST?

TRIMODE Model Overview Model covering all modes of passenger and freight transport for all of Europe Includes integrated sub-models: transport demand; network assignment; fleet; energy; economy. NUTS3 level zoning, plus detailed modal networks Base year 2010, validation year 2015 - 5-year-steps projections up to 2050 Phase 1 (2017) development and testing of 6 countries: AT, DE, IT, NL, SI, UK Phase 2 (2019) will extend to cover remaining European (and neighbouring) countries Access to good data is crucial to success: - in the model development and testing currently underway - based on Eurostat data to the maximum extent feasible - to simplify updating of the model in future years by EC DGs

Overview: OD Data Availability & Completeness Requirement for 2010 is a complete OD tonnes matrix segmented by NUTS3 x NUTS3 x NST2007 (type of goods) x Mode Eurostat data availability in 2010 for Phase 1 countries is OD matrix – Origin Destination matrix of tonnes transported Road will use 2011 NUTS3xNUTS3 data to spatially disaggregate 2010 control totals IWW port locations will be used to disaggregate from NUTS2 to NUTS3xNUTS3 level. Air initially allocate all tonnes to NST class 15: mail and parcels. Later after further analysis, reallocate some from NST15 to other consumer goods NSTs. Maritime needs some processing but the basic ingredients needed are available. Due to the major gaps in Eurostat tables we will need to rely on national data sources for pipeline tonnages. However, pipeline network is of limited size and has just NST 2: crude oil & NST 7: refined petroleum products - so this task appears feasible. Rail freight data is the main issue to be discussed in later slides. We already have UK rail OD matrices for 2010 and 2015 from within the team (NUTS3xNUTS3xNST).

Overview: National Data Coverage & Consistency Requirement is that the tonnes transported are defined in a fully consistent fashion across all combinations of: Countries – Modes – Years Otherwise, if the model matched well to the 2010 pattern it would be guaranteed to be wrong for 2015 Eurostat consistency of tonnes for Phase 1 countries is: Mode Yearly total Country NST Yearly NST Road OK DE, NL, SI, UK have some issues IWW OK except IT: 2011 &15 IT, UK have issues – small flows Air OK – NST:15 - freight & mail Maritime Cargo type - OK Pipeline Gaps Rail Gaps except 2012 &14 Some years OK IT, NL, UK have issues Road - NST consistency issues are mainly in the earlier years and in general can be worked around IWW – Consistency seems good throughout for the major flows Air and Maritime - both appear consistent throughout Rail – has some major gaps and issues

Rail Freight Data Issues – OD matrices, 2010 Only 12 European countries match to the total tonne-km aggregate within 1% of difference No OD data at all for Austria, Belgium, Romania For other Phase 1 countries major missing OD tonnage data for Italy (-24%) and Netherlands (-14%) smaller missing tonnages for Slovenia (-5%) and UK (-7%) Germany matches fully Source: comparison of Eurostat tables for annual national totals <rail_ga_typeall> for 2010 OD based totals <tran_r_rago>

Comparison of Eurostat 2010 total rail tonnes (000s): national <rail_ga_typeall> OD based <tran_r_rago>

Rail Freight Data Issues - NST No NST segmentation at all in the rail OD dataset NST only available at country level - at best! not zonally even at NUTS1 level Half of all European countries have data gaps in their total national tonnes For Phase 1 countries: AT (83%), IT (64%) & NL (31%) of expected totals But DE (100%), UK (100%) and SI (96%) do match OK in 2010 Source: comparison of Eurostat tables for annual national totals <rail_go_typeall> for NST based totals <rail_go_grpgood> Major issues need to be resolved so to use rail OD data segmented by NST for base year 2010

Comparison of Eurostat 2010 total rail tonnes (000s): national <rail_ga_typeall> NST based <rail_go_grpgood>

NST national consistency over time, Phase 1 countries – Rail A constant 12.5% spread of colours over 8 years & 20 NSTs would suggest consistent data for country AT, DE and SI appear broadly OK IT is missing some or all NSTs in 2008, 2010 & 2013 NL is missing some or all national and transit traffic 2008-2011 UK shows inconsistencies between early and later years for various NSTs Source: Eurostat NUTS0 table ‘rail_go_grpgood’

Freight data - National sources Requirement is: complete 2010 (calibration) and 2015 (validation) OD rail tonnes matrices segmented by NUTS3 x NUTS3 x NST2007 (20 types of goods) otherwise a close approximation to these segments plus meta-data on the source of observations and processing Observed data is needed – not the output from a model

Freight OD matrix availability with NST - 1 Phase 1 countries DE (2010 only) and UK – matrices are already available AT – potentially available from Directorate Business Statistics – Transport NL – potentially available from inputs to BasGoed model SI - contact Slovenian Ministry of Infrastructure and the Slovenian statistical office IT – possibly available from: Italian Ministry of Transport – inputs to SIMPT model RFI - inputs to SAVEF model

Freight OD matrix availability with NST - 2 Phase 2 countries BE– potentially available from Belgian Federal Planning Bureau – inputs to PLANET model SE – potentially available from inputs to SAMGODS model NO – potentially available from inputs to national model Other countries Hopefully similar national sources can be made available

Passenger data - National sources Requirement is complete 2010 (calibration) and 2015 (validation) OD rail passenger matrices segmented by NUTS3 x NUTS3 otherwise a close approximation to these segments plus meta-data on the source of observations and processing Observed data is needed – not the output from a model

Comparison of Eurostat 2010 total rail passengers (000s): national <rail_pa_total> OD based <tran_r_rapa>

Passenger OD matrix availability Phase 1 countries UK – matrices are already available though require significant processing AT – possibly available from Statistik Austria DE - possibly available from DESTATIS NL – to fill major gaps and to obtain OViN mobility data, contact CBS - statistical agency and Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment SI - contact Slovenian Ministry of Infrastructure and the Slovenian statistical office IT – Unlikely to be further data available Phase 2 countries Hopefully similar national sources can be made available

Tonne kilometres (bn) by NST by reporting country, 2010: (note difference in scales and in pattern across NSTs) Rail Road Why is it important to have our freight matrices segmented by NST / type of goods in a consistent fashion for each mode across years? tkm across Europe differ in relative importance by NST class between road and rail: Road: NST4 – food products; NST1 - agricultural goods have highest tkms Rail: NST19 – containers; NST7 - refined petroleum products have highest tkms But note total tkm for NST7 is around 50 billion for both road and rail – difference in scale. The model needs to segment by NST in order to pick up these important differences in competitiveness between modes.

EU total by distance class & NST07 class, road, 2013 Tonnes (million) lifted Vehicle-kilometers (billions) Looking just at different units of measurement provide different insights for policy making: NST3 – ores and quarry products have the largest tonnes lifted But they are mainly loaded on large trucks (heavy bulk products) moving short trip lengths (blue<50kms) so generate lower impacts on traffic congestion (vkms) than might otherwise be expected. NST4 – food products are moved long distances with low tonnes per truck (light goods – individually packaged sometimes in smaller trucks used for local deliveries) often into urban areas and so have much larger impacts on road congestion than is indicated just by their tonnes lifted. NST18 – grouped goods is similar to NST4

Conclusions TRIMODE is an important modelling project for the European Commission, which will support the analytical work accompanying the policy initiatives in the transport field Network-based models are data-intense and require O/D detailed data for development and calibration. Using high quality detailed data is a precondition for reliable results! DG MOVE looks forward any detailed O/D data in rail transport, possibly at NUTS3 level, and by type of goods.

Thank you for your attention! paolo.bolsi@ec.europa.eu