Global Word Mineral Production Trends office@geologie-weber.at Global Word Mineral Production Trends Why are some Minerals critical for the European Union ? L. Weber 1 & C. Reichl 2, Vienna 1 Vice Chairman IOC World Mining Congress 2 Austrian Federal Ministry for Science, Research and Economy

World mining production, by groups of minerals office@geologie-weber.at 4,4 % 8,6 % 86,5 % ∆ 2011 / 2012 = +2,02% ∆ 2000 / 2012 = +49,00 % World mining production 1984 - 2012 by groups of minerals (without construction minerals, in Mio metr. t) Source: REICHL, C., SCHATZ, M. & G. ZSAK: WORLD MINING DATA 2014 Astana, 12 – 13 June 2014

World mining production, by continents office@geologie-weber.at 5,0 % 5,8 % 6,8 % 14,4 % 9,6 % 58,4 % World mining production 1984 - 2012 by continents (without construction minerals, in Mio metr. t) Source: REICHL, C., SCHATZ, M. & G. ZSAK: WORLD MINING DATA 2014 Astana, 12 – 13 June 2014

Source: REICHL, C., SCHATZ, M. & G. ZSAK: WORLD MINING DATA 2014 World mining production, by economic blocs office@geologie-weber.at World mining production 1984 - 2012 by economic blocks or cartel-like associations: European Union, BRICS Countries (without construction minerals, in Mio metr. t) Source: REICHL, C., SCHATZ, M. & G. ZSAK: WORLD MINING DATA 2014 Astana, 12 – 13 June 2014

Source: REICHL, C., SCHATZ, M. & G. ZSAK: WORLD MINING DATA 2014 World mining production, by economic blocs office@geologie-weber.at World mining production 1984 - 2012 by economic blocks or cartel-like associations: World, Europe,, European Union (without construction minerals, in Mio metr. t) For comparison only: mining production of the recently formed Eurasian Economic Union Source: REICHL, C., SCHATZ, M. & G. ZSAK: WORLD MINING DATA 2014 Astana, 12 – 13 June 2014

World mining production, by political stability office@geologie-weber.at World mining production 1984-2012 by political stability of the producer countries acc. WGI by World Bank Group (without construction minerals, in Mi metr. t) Source: REICHL, C., SCHATZ, M. & G. ZSAK: WORLD MINING DATA 2014 Astana, 12 – 13 June 2014

20 largest producer countries, by production office@geologie-weber.at China 4,515 Mrd. metr.t ≈ 26,4 % of world mining production USA 1,999 Mrd. metr.t ≈ 11,7 % of world mining production China is the world largest producer of 28 mineral commodities: (4 iron- and steel alloying metals, 12 non ferrous metals, 1 precious metals, 9 industrial minerals, 2 energy fuels) 20 largest producer countries 2012 (without construction minerals, in Mio metr. t) Astana, 12 – 13 June 2014

Source: REICHL, C., SCHATZ, M. & G. ZSAK: WORLD MINING DATA 2014 20 largest producer countries, by value office@geologie-weber.at China 859 Billion US$ USA 547Billion US$ 20 largest producer countries 2012 (without construction minerals, in Billion US$) Source: REICHL, C., SCHATZ, M. & G. ZSAK: WORLD MINING DATA 2014 Astana, 12 – 13 June 2014

Criticality evaluation metholology office@geologie-weber.at Criteria to identify the criticality of minerals: Economic importance Supply risk displayed as xy-diagramm, and quadrants Environmental Performance Index environmental risk index: e.g. shut down due to insufficient environmental measures critical Non critical Astana, 12 – 13 June 2014

Supply risk office@geologie-weber.at SRi supply risk σi substitutability σi = Σ A is σis (factor 0…1) ρi recycling rate (factor 0…1; quotient from used materials/EU-demand) HHIWGI WGI-weighted Herfindahl-Hirschmann Index The supply risk rises for political instable countries, showing high rates of world production, low substitutability and low recycling rates of the particular commodity Astana, 12 – 13 June 2014

5 enterprises with each 20% market share: Herfindahl-Hirschmann Index (HHI) office@geologie-weber.at Herfindahl-Hirschmann Index (HHI) is a commonly accepted measure for market concentration, calculated by squaring the market share of each firm competing in the market and then summing the resulting figures. The HHI ranges between 1 and 10000 (monopol) Example: 1 enterprise only (100% market share): HHI = 1002 = 10.000 5 enterprises with each 20% market share: HHI = 202+202+202+202+202 = 2.000 HHI: < 1.000 low market concentration HHI: 1.000…2.000 moderate market concentration HHI: 2.000…10.000 high market concentration 27.11.2018 Astana, 12 – 13 June 2014

Herfindahl-Hirschmann Index (HHI) office@geologie-weber.at Example: High concentration due to few producer countries only unbalanced distribution Source: WORLD MINING DATA 2014 Astana, 12 – 13 June 2014

HHIWGI = Σ (Sic)2 WGIc Herfindahl-Hirschmann Index (HHI) office@geologie-weber.at Since 2008 the HHI is used as a modified HHI(ct) in the annual publication WORLD MINING DATA, published by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Science, Research and Economy. The modified HHI reflects the country concentrations of a particular mineral commodity. The figures are used by the European Commission for criticality assessment. HHIWGI = Σ (Sic)2 WGIc HHIWGI WGI-weighted modified Herfindahl-Hirschmann Index Sic Share of a country in World production WGIc World Governance Index (Worldbank) pol. stability, corruption … values between -2,5 bis + 2,5 27.11.2018 Astana, 12 – 13 June 2014

EIi = 1/GDP Σ AisQs Economic importance office@geologie-weber.at EIi economic importance of a particular mineral commodity Ais share of material consumption i of the respective „End-User Sector“ („Mega-Sector“) Qs economic importance of the particular sector s, using this mineral commodity, by value The economic importance is the quotient of the weighted sums of the single megasectores (expressed as the added value) and the European GDP (EUROSTAT data). 27.11.2018 Astana, 12 – 13 June 2014

Critical minerals 2010 office@geologie-weber.at List of „Candidate Materials 2010“ = 41 Aluminium Antimony Barytes Bauxite Bentonite Beryllium Borates Chromium Clays (and Kaolin) Cobalt Copper Diatomite Feldspar Fluorspar Gallium Germanium Gypsum Indium Iron ore Limestone (high grade) Lithium Magnesite Magnesium Manganese Molybdenum Natural Graphite Nickel Niobium Perlite Platinum Group Metals Rare Earth Elements Rhenium Silica Sand Silver Talc Tantalum Tellurium Titanium Tungsten Vanadium Zinc

Critical minerals 2010 office@geologie-weber.at List of „Critical Materials 2010“ = 14 Aluminium Antimony Barytes Bauxite Bentonite Beryllium Borates Chromium Clays (and Kaolin) Cobalt Copper Diatomite Feldspar Fluorspar Gallium Germanium Gypsum Indium Iron ore Limestone (high grade) Lithium Magnesite Magnesium Manganese Molybdenum Natural Graphite Nickel Niobium Perlite Platinum Group Metals Rare Earth Elements Rhenium Silica Sand Silver Talc Tantalum Tellurium Titanium Tungsten Vanadium Zinc 27.11.2018

Rare Earth Elements - Heavy Rare Earth Elements - Light Critical materials 2014 office@geologie-weber.at List of „Candidate Materials 2014“ = 54 Aluminium Antimony Barytes Bauxite Bentonite Beryllium Borates Coking Coal Chromium Clays (and Kaolin) Cobalt Copper Diatomite Feldspar Fluorspar Gallium Germanium Gold Gypsum Hafnium Indium Iron ore Limestone (high grade) Lithium Magnesite Magnesium Manganese Molybdenum Natural Graphite Natural Rubber (Kautschuk) Nickel Niobium Perlite Phosphate Rock Platinum Group Metals Potash Pulpwood (Faserholz) Rare Earth Elements - Heavy Rare Earth Elements - Light Rhenium Sawn Softwood (Schnittholz) Scandium Selenium Silica Sand Silicon Metal Silver Talc Tantalum Tellurium Tin Titanium Tungsten Vanadium Zinc 27.11.2018 Astana, 12 – 13 June 2014

Rare Earth Elements - Heavy Rare Earth Elements - Light Critical materials 2014 office@geologie-weber.at List of „Critical Materials 2014“ = 20 Aluminium Antimony Barytes Bauxite Bentonite Beryllium Borates Coking Coal Chromium Clays (and Kaolin) Cobalt Copper Diatomite Feldspar Fluorspar Gallium Germanium Gold Gypsum Hafnium Indium Iron ore Limestone (high grade) (Lithium) Magnesite Magnesium Manganese Molybdenum Natural Graphite Natural Rubber Nickel Niobium Perlite Phosphate Rock Platinum Group Metals Potash Pulpwood Rare Earth Elements - Heavy Rare Earth Elements - Light Rhenium Sawn Softwood Scandium Selenium Silica Sand Silicon Metal Silver Talc Tantalum Tellurium Tin Titanium Tungsten Vanadium Zinc 27.11.2018 Astana, 12 – 13 June 2014

Critical minerals 2010 kritisch office@geologie-weber.at Supply risk Economic importance (Data base 2008) Astana, 12 – 13 June 2014

Critical materials 2014 critical office@geologie-weber.at Supply risk (Data base 2011) Astana, 12 – 13 June 2014

Non energetic minerals Comparision 2010 / 2014 office@geologie-weber.at 2010 2014 Number of commodities investigated 41 54 Non energetic minerals + biotic materials Critical minerals / materials 14 20 splitting REE in „heavy“ and „light“ REE and scandium splitting of silica in „quartzsand“ und „Si-metal“ first assessment of coking coal, gold, hafnium, phosphate, potash, selenium und tin first assessment of pulp wood, soft wood, natural rubber Astana, 12 – 13 June 2014

Further reading… World Mining Data 2014 World Governance Index office@geologie-weber.at World Mining Data 2014 editor: Austrian Federal Ministry of Science, Research and Economy christian.reichl@bmwfw.gv.at http://www.en.bmwfw.gv.at/Energy/WorldMiningData/Seiten/default.aspx World Governance Index editor: World Bank http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.aspx#home http://ssrn.com/abstract=1682130 Report on Critical Raw Materials for the EU editor: DG Enterprise and Industry http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/policies/raw-materials/critical/index_en.htm Astana, 12 – 13 June 2014