Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Portal Elias Rodriguez School of Computer Engineering Computer Science and Electrical Engineering Polytechnic University of Puerto Rico Seychelles Martinez School of Computing and Information Sciences Florida International University REU Summer Program 8/1/2008

Outline Introduction Problem Statement Initial Goals Project schedule Challenges encountered Lessons learned 11/27/2018

Outline (cont.) Accomplishment Current project status Next week Future challenges 11/27/2018

Introduction What is WRF? Weather Research and Forecasting Developed by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Widely accepted in meteorology The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) code is the latest numerical model developed by the national Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) for both operational forecating and atmospheric research. A measure of its success is that WRF has been adopted by meteorological services and researchers worldwide. 11/27/2018

Introduction (cont.) What is Ensemble Forecasting? Purpose: account for errors in forecasting system due to chaotic nature of atmospheric dynamics Different models created in parallel with different initial conditions. Models, then, combined to produce a probabilistic forecast Ensemble forecasting is a method used by modern operational forecast centers to account for uncertainties and errors in the forecasting system which are crucial for the prediction errors due to the chaotic nature of the atmospheric dynamics (sensitive dependency on initial conditions). Many different models are created in parallel with slightly different initial conditions or configurations. These models are then combined to produce a forecast that can be fully probabilistic or derive some deterministic products such as the ensemble mean. 11/27/2018

WRF conf Netcdf file Netcdf file WRF conf WPS or WRF Web Based Portal Real Pert M 1 M 2 M 3 Aggreg M n Web Based Portal WRF conf Real Pert M 1 M 2 M 3 Aggreg M n Job-Flow Manager Netcdf file Meta-Scheduler Netcdf file Walk through idea (literal) GCB 11/27/2018 GCB Vis Mind FSU UNF WRF conf WPS or WRF

Problem Statement Meteorologist are encumbered by CS intensive labor using WRF Ensemble Forecasting is slow WRF software is processor heavy The motivation for creating this portal is to provide a comprehensive, easy to use, high-level tool for meteorologist to simulate and perform ensemble runs using the WRF forecasting model. Likewise the idea is to help scientists visualize the output statically or dynamically via MPEG/GIF or Google maps with relevant information where one can zoom in and out, respectively.   This will help the meteorologists, who are currently occupied with the particulars of the computer science aspect of weather forecasting, concentrate on their own science. With a readily available tool created for them, a meteorologist does not have to be bothered by the business logic of the program; much in the same way a person who uses a telephone does not need to be aware of the circuitry inside to use it to his or her advantage. In this way the science of meteorology will not be hindered by the cumbersome task of creating tools for themselves, but rather can concentrate on their own science and achieve research and other scientific goals quicker and more efficiently. 11/27/2018

Initial Goals: 1st Goal: Portal provides an appropriate interface for meteorologists to be able to specify what is in the ensemble that would like to be run Amount of ensemble members What input should the ensemble members receive (or, How should they be perturbed?) Perturbation algorithms: i.e. random, uniformly, normally, log-normally, Monte Carlo, etc. How the output should be aggregated Aggregation Algorithms: i.e. Mean, median, max, min, etc. 1 goal: Portal provide appropirate intrefaces for metoriologist to be able to specify what I s the ensemble that he would like to run How many esnsemble members Ensemble members: what input they should receive (how it hould be perturen bed) How output should be aggregated Goal: web based portal to compose workflow that encapsulates the Aggregate 3 phases: diamond – 5 -6 Provide interface for meteorologist w/ list for diff option how to create perturbed input file Define ensemble members Perturbation algorithm Agregation algorithm 2 goal: interface w/ the job-flow manager define API to interact w/ job flow manager (receive a work flow document response return result of execution) Give job flow manager XML that contains pertubation and aggregation algorithm and # of ensemble members Generate worklfow pass it to job flow mananger Ask job flow mangaer status of worklfow Get result of document 3 goal: to be able to keep the profile of user w/ resepct to what are the ensemble user fiends When they were run (history) User logs out, system should still be running keep results of past results 11/27/2018

Initial Goals (cont.): 2nd Goal: Define an API to interact with the job-flow manager. Action: Send a work flow document Response: Return result of the execution Generate workflow, pass it to the job-flow manager Ask job flow manager status of the workflow Get results of execution 1 goal: Portal provide appropirate intrefaces for metoriologist to be able to specify what I s the ensemble that he would like to run How many esnsemble members Ensemble members: what input they should receive (how it hould be perturen bed) How output should be aggregated Goal: web based portal to compose workflow that encapsulates the Aggregate 3 phases: diamond – 5 -6 Provide interface for meteorologist w/ list for diff option how to create perturbed input file Define ensemble members Perturbation algorithm Agregation algorithm 2 goal: interface w/ the job-flow manager define API to interact w/ job flow manager (receive a work flow document response return result of execution) Give job flow manager XML that contains pertubation and aggregation algorithm and # of ensemble members Generate worklfow pass it to job flow mananger Ask job flow mangaer status of worklfow Get result of document 3 goal: to be able to keep the profile of user w/ resepct to what are the ensemble user fiends When they were run (history) User logs out, system should still be running keep results of past results 11/27/2018

Initial Goals (cont.): 3rd Goal: To be able to keep the user’s profile with respect to: What is in the user’s ensemble’s fields When the ensembles were run (history) Keep results of past runs A logged out user’s runs should still be running on the system 1 goal: Portal provide appropirate intrefaces for metoriologist to be able to specify what I s the ensemble that he would like to run How many esnsemble members Ensemble members: what input they should receive (how it hould be perturen bed) How output should be aggregated Goal: web based portal to compose workflow that encapsulates the Aggregate 3 phases: diamond – 5 -6 Provide interface for meteorologist w/ list for diff option how to create perturbed input file Define ensemble members Perturbation algorithm Agregation algorithm 2 goal: interface w/ the job-flow manager define API to interact w/ job flow manager (receive a work flow document response return result of execution) Give job flow manager XML that contains pertubation and aggregation algorithm and # of ensemble members Generate worklfow pass it to job flow mananger Ask job flow mangaer status of worklfow Get result of document 3 goal: to be able to keep the profile of user w/ resepct to what are the ensemble user fiends When they were run (history) User logs out, system should still be running keep results of past results 11/27/2018

Project Schedule Research Documentation (on Wiki page): Implementation On autonomic computing (Jun 2) Documentation (on Wiki page): Initial “Requirements Specification” (Jun 2) Initial “Software Architecture” (Jun 23) User Manual Final “Requirements Specification” (Jul 31) Final “Software Architecture” Implementation 11/27/2018

Accomplishments Design of portal Creating, Editing, and Deleting ensembles Design and implementation of Database Maintaining user history Self Generating template for JFM Work-Flow Working demo  11/27/2018

Accomplishments (cont.) 11/27/2018

Accomplishments (cont.) (BPEL) Business Process Execution Language 11/27/2018

Challenges Learning about WRF and meteorology related information Finding information on ensemble forecasting Communicating with the other layers of the system (i.e. JFM) Creating an ensemble run 11/27/2018

Lessons Learned WRF and ensemble forecasting Communication through layers Grid enablement Autonomic Computing Software Architecture 11/27/2018

Current project status Completed documentation: Requirements Specification Software Architecture Document User Manual Implementation Create, edit, and delete an ensemble forecast Generate the BPEL template to communicate with the JFM 11/27/2018

Next Week Complete an ensemble run Send functional workflow to JFM Calling API method Organize Wiki page with all documentation Write technical report The wiki page will have all the information from the email archives, group forums, detail of the design and implementation documents, all the other related documents. 11/27/2018

Future Research Challenges Dynamically allow for multiple met_em files to be uploaded according to number of domains Visualizations Perturbation and aggregation functions implemented Creating distinct ensemble members 11/27/2018

Demo http://wrf.cs.fiu.edu:8008/WRF/wrfPortal_1.2/ 11/27/2018

References Gargi Dasgupta, Onyeka Ezenwoye, Liana Fong, Selim Kalayci, S. Masoud Sadjadi, and Balaji Viswanathan. Runtime fault-handling for job-flow management in grid environments. In Proceedings of the 5th IEEE International Conference on Autonomic Computing (ICAC-2008), Chicago, IL, June 2008. Khalid Saleem, S. Masoud Sadjadi, and Shu-Ching Chen. Towards a self-configurable weather research and forecasting system. In Proceedings of the 5th IEEE International Conference on Autonomic Computing (ICAC-2008), Chicago, IL, June 2008. Lavanya Ramakrishnan1, Brian O. Blanton4, Howard M. Lander1, Richard A. Luettich, Jr.3, Daniel A. Reed1, Steven R. Thorpe2, 1 Renaissance Computing Institute, 2MCNC, 3UNC Chapel Hill Institute of Marine Sciences, 4Science, Applications International Corporation Real-time Storm Surge Ensemble Modeling in a Grid Environment S. Masoud Sadjadi, Liana Fong, Rosa M. Badia, Javier Figueroa, Javier Delgado, Xabriel J. Collazo-Mojica, Khalid Saleem, Raju Rangaswami, Shu Shimizu, Hector A. Duran Limon, Pat Welsh, Sandeep Pattnaik,`Anthony Praino, David Villegas, Selim Kalayci, Gargi Dasgupta, Onyeka Ezenwoye, Juan Carlos Martinez, Ivan Rodero, Shuyi Chen, Javier Muñoz, Diego Lopez, Julita Corbalan, Hugh Willoughby, Michael McFail,Christine Lisetti, and Malek Adjouadi1 Transparent Grid Enablement of Weather Research and Forecasting 11/27/2018

Questions 11/27/2018