Spatio-temporal information in society: land change Gilberto Câmara Licence: Creative Commons ̶̶̶̶ By Attribution ̶̶̶̶ Non Commercial ̶̶̶̶ Share Alike http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/

source: Global Land Project Science Plan (IGBP)

Land change: A quintessential spatial problem Soybeans Loggers Small-scale Farming Competition for land Temos que avaliar a potencialidade de uso das area em relacao aos seus usos Ranchers Source: Dan Nepstad (Woods Hole)

Food Security Stock : 457 Mt = 2.5 mois Trade : 265 Mt = 12% /utilis. 18% Others 14% Maize 35% Rice 20% Wheat Stock : 457 Mt = 2.5 mois Trade : 265 Mt = 12% /utilis. 31% Source : WASDE december 2009 © GEO Secretariat

Changes in dietary patterns: Meat consumption FAOSTAT 2007

Food challenge: prices are increasing

Where is the food coming from and going to? graphics: The Economist

Net trade on food (FAO)

Food trade networks

Biodiesel and bioethanol

The food challenge: search for new land graphics: The Economist

The food challenge: technology gaps source: Nature

At what cost bio?

The Chinese are coming… to Africa Trade between China and Africa surpassed $120 billion in 2010. China gives more loans to poor African countries than the World Bank. graphics: The Economist

Modelling collective spatial actions: potential GIScience contributions Space Agent Agent Space Benenson and Torrens, “Geographic Automata Systems”, IJGIS, 2005 (but many questions remain...)

Spatially-explicit land change models Explain past changes, through the identification of determining factors of land use change; Envision which changes will happen, and their intensity, location and time; Assess how choices in public policy can influence change, by building different scenarios considering different policy options.