NS4960 Spring Term, 2018 China: Expanded Renewables

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Presentation transcript:

NS4960 Spring Term, 2018 China: Expanded Renewables Oxford Analytica China Coal Trends Signal Deep Economic Shifts, April 2016

Overview Government has announced a $363 billion investment program in renewable energy Part of its 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20) Continues the twin strategies of Increasing the share of non-fossil fuel in the energy mix and Supporting the growth and internationalization of China's renewable energy manufacturing industry

Chinese Five Year Plans I The Eleventh Five Year Plan (2006-10) placed great emphasis on reducing energy intensity The Twelfth highlighted the need to invest in renewable energy, particularly wind and solar Goals were Containing the rise of carbon dioxide emissions Reducing air pollution and Promoting the renewable energy manufacturing industry The government supported this strategy by introducing feed-in tariffs (payments for energy users for the renewable electricity they generate) for the first time and Investing billions of renminbi in renewable energy research and development and manufacturing

Chinese Five Year Plans II The installed capacity of grid connected wind energy and solar PV in 2015 exceeded the planned targets giving China the largest wind and solar PV capacity in the world. Total non-fossil fuel capacity doubled (including hydro, nuclear and biomass) taking the share from 27% to 35% of the national total China also became the leading manufacturer by quantity, flooding the international market and driving down prices for wind and solar equipment

Chinese Five Year Plans III However actual availability of renewable electricity did not match the success in constructing new generating capacity. Hydroelectricity generation fluctuates annually, depending on rainfall Wind farms and solar arrays have been contributing an unexpectedly small amount of electricity owing to Poor location Technical failures and Lack of connection to the grid Even as these problems were solved, the grid companies remained unwilling to prioritize use of renewable energy generating capacity because of the high cost and the lack of flexible load to balance the intermittency

Chinese Five Year Plans IV The 13th Five Year Plan (2016-20) Released in April 2016 set objectives for Reducing carbon dioxide emissions intensity by 18% and Increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in total primary consumption from 12% to 15% An estimated 2.5 trillion renminbi is to be spent on 500 billion renminbi on hydro 700 billion on wind 1 trillion on different forms of solar power and The rest on biomass, solar water heating and geothermal power The investment program is expected to create 3 million new jobs bringing the total in the renewable energy sector to 13 million

Chinese Five Year Plans V Notable features of the new plan includes A slowdown in the construction of conventional hydro capacity A new emphasis on pump-storage hydro and A surge in the growth of solar PV and solar thermal capacity Shift of emphasis away from constructing large-scale hydroelectric plants may reflect a belated recognition of the social and environmental costs of such projects Priority given to pump-storage hydro is in response to the shortage of reactive power rto balance the growing capacity in intermittent renewable energy

Chinese Five Year Plans VI The planned increase of capacity in solar PV and solar thermal capacity results from the realization that these technologies offer huge opportunities in large parts of the country -- provided appropriate economic incentives are put in place. Likely that targets for installed capacity will be met Wider challenge is to maximize the actual use of non-fossil-fuel generating capacity At a time of slower and less energy intensive economic growth and When more than 200 GW of coal-firec capacity is still under construction

Chinese Five Year Plans VII During 2016 Curtailment rates for wind and solar PV exceeded 40% in some provinces and Some nuclear power stations were used to provide following load rather than bas e load Nuclear power stations operate most efficiently if they are generating electricity all of the time However in China some are only used when coal-fired plants cannot supply sufficient power to meet demand

Assessment The Five-Year Plan sends a clear signal that China is serious about developing renewable energy both as a manufacturing industry and form of energy The challenge for the industry is to improve technical reliability and sophistication The challenge for the government is to maximize the use of installed renewable generating capacity by the grid and Consumption of non-fossil fuel electricity