Attribution Of Haze Case Study for Nevada Jarbidge Wilderness Area Nevada Division of Environmental Protection Bureau of Air Quality Planning Attribution Of Haze Case Study for Nevada Jarbidge Wilderness Area Lori Campbell

Nevada Division of Environmental Protection Jarbidge Wilderness, Nevada dv=1 Bext=11 VR=350 km Jarbidge Visual Range = 350 km Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning March 8, 2005

Nevada Division of Environmental Protection Jarbidge Wilderness, Nevada dv=28 Bext=156 VR=25 km Jarabidge Visible Range 25 km Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning March 8, 2005

Nevada Division of Environmental Protection According to IMPROVE monitoring data, the average aerosol extinction for the 20% worst visibility days at Jarbidge Wilderness Area is 25 Mm-1. The contribution from ammonium sulfate is approximately 14%, or about 3.8 Mm-1. The contribution from ammonium nitrate is approximately 6%, or 1.7 Mm-1 Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning March 8, 2005

Nevada Division of Environmental Protection While the model clearly does not predict the monitoring data perfectly, comparisons between the timelines should focus on whether the species seasonal trends and episodes are similar. Next Slide…Table Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning March 8, 2005

Nevada Division of Environmental Protection Table: Comparison of Monitoring to Modeling Data Modeling Results 20% Worst Days Sulfate: 25% Nitrate: 27% OM: 33% EC: 9% Soil: 4% CM: 2% 20% Best Days Sulfate: 49% Nitrate: 15% OM: 26% EC: 5% Soil: 3% I found this table for the monitoring data on the attribution of haze report, but not for modeling results. Might be nice to have the modeling results in a comparison table.. Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning March 8, 2005

Nevada Division of Environmental Protection The next few slides represents the source apportionment results for sulfate and nitrate. This graphic compares sulfate apportionment results from the TSSA (Model) and TRA (Monitor) methods. Both apportionment methods identify Nevada as the most significant geographic source of sulfate (TSSA estimates ~12% contribution; TRA estimates ~10% contribution). The remaining sulfate is attributed to nearby states and further U.S. regions (up to ~10% contribution for a single geographic source region NWUS), with the largest discrepancy between the apportionments identified with Idaho (TSSA ~12%; TRA ~1%), California (TSSA ~5%; TRA ~15%) and Oregon (TSSA ~11%; TRA ~9%). The “Other” contribution in the TSSA results is ~35%, and this may include some of the Pacific contribution indicated in the TRA results. Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning March 8, 2005

Nevada Division of Environmental Protection This graphic presents sulfate (top) and nitrate (bottom) apportionment results from the TSSA analysis. The TSSA results for sulfate and nitrate show a similar pattern of source strength from all geographic regions, with these exceptions: point sources dominate the sulfate attribution; mobile sources dominate the nitrate attribution; and the estimated contributions from Nevada differ (sulfate ~12%; nitrate ~8%). The graph still show Idaho, Oregon, and California influence as much or sometimes more for SO4 and NO3. Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning March 8, 2005

Nevada Division of Environmental Protection This shows California as a big influence…. On both the 20% worst monitored days and all monitored days at Jarbidge. Not to concerned about this because California has already has strict controls and projects in place, so we are back to looking at Nevada for reductions. Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning March 8, 2005

Nevada Division of Environmental Protection Next Steps Reviewed the emissions inventories Looked at Meteorology – where the emission might be coming from State emissions maps Back Trajectories and Residence Time Maps Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning March 8, 2005

Nevada Division of Environmental Protection Organic Materials - Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning March 8, 2005

Nevada Division of Environmental Protection Review of the state SO2 and NOx emissions maps confirms that there are significant sources of both species within Nevada and nearby states, and within the area of meteorological influence suggested by the residence time back trajectory map for Jarbidge WA (Figure 3-6). Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning March 8, 2005

Nevada Division of Environmental Protection Review of the state SO2 and NOx emissions maps confirms that there are significant sources of both species within Nevada and nearby states, and within the area of meteorological influence suggested by the residence time back trajectory map for Jarbidge WA (Figure 3-6). Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning March 8, 2005

Nevada Division of Environmental Protection Views trajectories that end at the site for a given day. 4 trajectories shown on each map correspond to different arrival times in which an air parcel following the display trajectory arrives at the monitoring site. Red at 0500 hrs, white at 1100 hrs, green at 1700 hrs, and black at 2300 hrs. Each plot indicates an air parcel position 3 hours older than the next parcel along the trajectory line. Complete trajectories go back 5 days. BackTrajectories Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning March 8, 2005

Nevada Division of Environmental Protection The color scaling on the residence time map indicates the fraction of the total time that back trajectory paths fell in a given grid cell. The darker blue regions indicate predominant flow patterns from west of the park. Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning Causes of Haze Assessment (COHA) March 8, 2005

NOW WHAT?

Nevada Division of Environmental Protection Control Strategies – SO2 & NOX BART-eligible Sources Mohave Power Plant will be closing which is 81% of the SO2 total & 43% of the NOX total from Bart-eligible sources. Nevada Cement – closing and opening a newer plant with BACT, giving us a reduction in NOX Mobile Sources – Federal Regulations and Fleet Turnover Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning March 8, 2005

Guidance for Estimating Natural Visibility Conditions under the Regional Haze Rule (page B-3) Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning March 8, 2005

Nevada Division of Environmental Protection 9.90 7.90 4.54 This is what we ultimately need to accomplish, according to the rule, we need to get back to natural background conditions by 2064. By 2018 we need to meet the first milestone. Formula from pages 1-4, 1-5, 1-6 from same report: Haze Index=10 ln (27mm-1)/10) – 9.9 9.9-4.54=5.39/60 years= .09dv/yr .09 * 14yrs = 1.26 9.16-1.26=7.90 dv 2002 2002 2018 2034 2050 2064 Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning March 8, 2005

Conclusions?? 2018 Projection EI reflect these changes Control Strategies (ie Closures) meet our 2018 milestone Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning March 8, 2005

Nevada’s attribution to neighbor states Example: Zion National Park, Utah Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning March 8, 2005

Nevada Division of Environmental Protection SO4 20% worst days shows nevada’s influence on neighboring states. Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning March 8, 2005

Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning March 8, 2005

Nevada Division of Environmental Protection SO4 – For Model Results - Nevada Point Sources Power Plants For Monitoring Results – Nevada very small Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning March 8, 2005

Nevada Division of Environmental Protection Showing Nevada attribution of SO4 and NO3 Model So4 results – same as previous slide Model NO3 results – nevada less than 10%, about ½ point, ½ mobile Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning March 8, 2005

Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning March 8, 2005

Zion National Park Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning March 8, 2005

Nevada Division of Environmental Protection Jarbidge Wilderness This is what we are working towards! Questions? Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning March 8, 2005