Scenario Project „Yamal Oil and Gas 2040“ Purpose and Goals About Scenarios Overview of a construction process Role of other Work Packages

Scenario Project Purpose and Goals Purpose of the scenario project in the context of WP5: Improve Arctic rights- and stakeholders’ capacity for adapting effectively to changing conditions and opportunities Making policy relevant information accessible, helping policy planners to make better policy Goals Creating scenarios to find alternative answers to the questions what oil and gas extraction in the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug cold look like by 2040 Analyse the consequences for multiple stakeholder Derive strategic implications and maybe even some options to handle uncertain futures re the scenario topic

About Scenarios Are group products About Scenarios Are group products. Scenario construction is a group process Scenarios approach is a communication platform. The participants generate scenarios. Scenarios are constructed in a series of brainstorming and consolidation/reflection sessions. The scenarios are not the product of a computer model.

About Scenario Overview of a construction process WS 1 WS 2 WS 3 1 Scoping Defining the focal question Defining the scenario topic 2 Environment Scanning List of descriptors (≈30-50) 3 Descriptor Assessment Uncertainty-impact matrix List of key uncertainties (8) 4 Key Uncertainty Projections Definitions, current state Alternative outcomes 5 Scenario Construction Abstract scenario frameworks 6 Scenario Description Pictures of the future Histories of the future Scenario descriptions 7 Consequences Opportunities and threats 8 Strategic Implications Robust strategic options 9 Dissemination Reports Transfer workshops Environment scanning: What is influencing my scenario topic? Find out about Arctic/non-Arctic influences affecting Russian oil and gas development Ex: climate, weather, oil price, geopolitics, domestic politics, technology, governance, legal developments etc. Description assessment: Trends (3-4) definitions, current state, alternative outcomes Uncertainties (8-12) definitions, current state, alternative outcomes Take all this in a coherent product!  adding refinement, information etc. 2-4 scenarios can be expected, 3 min., 5 max scenarios should be planned for

About Scenarios Participants are knowledge carriers About Scenarios Participants are knowledge carriers. They bring their respective “background knowledge” to the table Knows about resource/drilling innovation Knows about potential CC impacts in 2040. Knows what we cannot know about it today Scenario Construction Participant with background in economics in politics in technology in law in climate change in societal change in geology Knows about Russian politics as well as UNFCCC process Knows about risk calculation of energy companies and about global oil price development Knows about geological uncertainties in YNAO and Kara Sea

Scenarios in our context Integrate background knowledge through researchers from other WPs GERICS WP 1

Needed from experts Participation in the workshops (funding is provided for through Russia case study) 1st workshop: 7 and 8 December 2017, Moscow 2nd workshop: Spring 2018 3rd workshop: Autumn 2018 No exact data needed We cannot define what kind of input we are going to need before we actually start the discussions in the workshop. The participants as a group will define their influential factors and they will also select what to focus on for the scenario construction. So some flexibility demanded from participants, bit difficult to prepare

Needed from experts Input as to projections of sea ice cover and thickness in the Kara Sea and along the Northern Sea Route – seasonal (especially differentiated between winter and summer) and decadal (until 2040) projections of temperature increase for the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug – seasonal (especially differentiated between winter and summer) and decadal (until 2040) projections of changes in wind, cloudiness and precipitation in the Yamal-Nenets AO – seasonal (especially differentiated between winter and summer) and decadal (until 2040); projections of permafrost thaw in the Yamal-Nenets AO by 2040 potential innovations in the field of weather and climate prediction reliability of the models behind it, error margins of estimates, diverging expert opinions; and deviating models/projections help with the interpretation of the climate data and possible innovations for the specific needs and interests of the engaged stakeholders But here are some ideas as to what kind of information is likey to be relevant for the workshops