Largest individual Plains fire outbreak in modern history Unique: Multiple megafires occurred (>100,000 acres burned) Megafires are high intensity fires that can cause immense damage and extremely poor air-quality “Commonly understood to be very large, intense, and uncontrollable fires (Larkin et al., 2015)” (Gabbert, 2017) Perryton Fire March 8, 2017, Perryton, TX (abc Amarillo)

Perryton Fire 3rd largest in TX history Starbuck Fire: 662,687 acres Starbuck Fire surpassed 2015 Anderson Creek Fire as largest fire in OK & KS history Perryton Fire 3rd largest in TX history Only 10 megafires previously documented on the Southern Great Plains in the modern era (Lindley et al., 2017) Perryton Fire: 318,056 acres

GOES-16 Satellite March 6, 2017 GOES infrared image shows the heat energy or fire temperature signatures from the outbreak on March 6 Wind shifts from westerly-southwesterly to northerly. This made the fires especially dangerous as flank fires nearly 40 miles long became the new headfires as the wind shifted. *To access this animated .gif, please go to this website: http://cig.mesonet.org/~mdeming/ChadGravelle_PYXfire.gif

Where We Are Now and What to Expect (Lindley et al., 2017) Frequency of fires is decreasing Size and severity is increasing

Wildfires in the U.S. The driving force in the future will be fuel, land use, and mitigation.

It’s looking pretty dry! Left image shows number of consecutive days with less than a tenth of an inch of rain. Parts of the panhandle haven’t seen that much rain in well over 100 days. As of February 8, Kenton is at 131 days! This year, there was a wet spring in 2017, followed by a mild summer What that means is we had vegetation and fuel growth without much of it dying off. Then we had a very cool, wet August. Perfect set up of moisture and fuel followed by drought (wet-dry coupling)

Potential for a pretty active fire season!

It’s important to monitor weather conditions and look for these short- and long-term indicators! Resources: Storm Prediction Center (SPC) fire outlooks: www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/ National Weather Service (NWS) fire info and forecasts: www.weather.gov/fire/ Oklahoma Mesonet: www.mesonet.org West Texas Mesonet: www.mesonet.ttu.edu Kansas Mesonet: mesonet.k-state.edu/ OKFire products: www.mesonet.org/index.php/okfire/home Drought Monitor: droughtmonitor.unl.edu ENSO Index: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

Thank you! Contact: Monica Mattox, Assistant State Climatologist| Oklahoma Mesonet E-mail: mmattox@Mesonet.org Phone: 405-325-1788