The Scientific and Social Challenges of Global Warming Jeffrey T. Kiehl Climate Change Research Section National Center for Atmospheric Research 11/28/2018 jtkon@ucar.edu

Outline History of climate change science How has the climate changed? How will the climate change? How are we involved in the change? How to communicate information to the public? 11/28/2018

History of Climate Change Science 11/28/2018

Joseph Fourier Asked: What determines the temperature of Earth? 1824 & 1827 works noting that atmosphere keeps Earth warm 11/28/2018

The Greenhouse Effect T 11/28/2018

The Greenhouse Effect T 11/28/2018

John Tyndall In 1860s measured what gases absorb thermal radiation Found that water vapor and carbon dioxide are major absorbers 11/28/2018

The Greenhouse Effect T T 11/28/2018

Svante Arrhenius In 1896 noted that industrial input of carbon dioxide would build up Calculated Earth would warm by 4 °C for a doubling of carbon dioxide 11/28/2018

Dave Keeling In 1950s to present Keeling measured the increase in carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere 11/28/2018

The Keeling Curve 11/28/2018

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IPCC(2007) 11/28/2018

How has the climate changed? 11/28/2018

What is Changing? Temperature (increase) Rainfall (increased intensity) Snow cover (decrease) Sea ice cover (decrease) Ocean heat (increase) Ocean acidity (increase) Sea Level (increase) Glacial coverage (decrease) Ecosystems (decrease/shifts) 11/28/2018

Ammann et al. (2006) 11/28/2018

Ammann et al. (2006) 11/28/2018

IPCC Temperature Trends 11/28/2018

IPCC (2007) 11/28/2018

Nghiem et al. (2007) 11/28/2018

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How will the climate change? 11/28/2018

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Change in Temperature from Present Where we are heading Crowley(2001) 11/28/2018 Present Past

September Sea Ice Conditions Gradual forcing results in abrupt ice transitions From 80 to 20% extent in 10 years. Winter maximum shows Smaller, more gradual decreases “Abrupt” transition Observations Simulated 5-year running mean 11/28/2018 (Holland et al., 2006)

Chapter 11 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report US Regional Temperature Increase 11/28/2018

US South West Is the current drought just the start? IPCC Distribution Multi-Model Outlook: 20th century 21st century 11/28/2018 Seager et al. 2007

How are we involved in the change? 11/28/2018

Human Factors Contributing to Global Warming Growth in Population Growth in Demand for Energy Changes in Technology Changes in Consumption 11/28/2018

US is 5% of global population, but 25% of global emissions 11/28/2018

Environment Humans 11/28/2018

Leiserowitz(2004) 11/28/2018

How public values the environment Given all of this scientific information, why has little been done to address the problem of global climate change? How public values the environment Ineffective communication of information Special interests distortion of information Reluctance of public to accept information 11/28/2018

Valuing the Environment Utilitarian value What nature can provide for us Intrinsic value Inherent value in nature independent of us Type of value determines our way of relating to the environment 11/28/2018

Personality Structure} Beliefs {Science, Education, Media, IT} {Social Constructs, Political Systems, Economic System} {Religious Systems, Family Systems, Personality Structure} Beliefs Information Values Behaviors Social Norms 11/28/2018

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Information to the Public? How to Communicate Information to the Public? 11/28/2018

Communication Challenges (How to Deliver Information) What is the Role of Affect in Conveying the Message? Is Information by Itself Enough? How Can the Message be Better Delivered? 11/28/2018

The Role of Affect in Conveying Information Tendency to defend against depressing news (Negative effect) What has been missing to date is the neglect of affect of information (Positive effect) Moser (2007) 11/28/2018

Mechanisms to Deal with Affects Denial of threat Belief problem won’t effect me Projection of responsibility onto someone else Fatalism Wishful thinking or rationalization Refusal to change Uncertainty trap Displacement of attention to other issues Numbing (Apathy) Moser (2007) 11/28/2018

Is Information Enough? Existing belief that information is sufficient to change attitudes and behaviors But information is not enough to change attitudes Importance of: Who is delivering the information? How is the information delivered? “The most important thing to know for motivating behavior is your audience’s beliefs and values” Chess & Johnson (2007) 11/28/2018

Culture & Information Issue Cultures: Social problems that become a concern for society (e.g. 9/11 & security) Bridging Metaphors: Scientific ideas are encoded in a distinct language that need to be decoded for the public Cultural Whirlwinds: Rapidly evolving sequences of events that create a vortex Ungar (2007) 11/28/2018

Information Transformation Scientific Observations Public Awareness Affect Laden Metaphors Narratives Value Systems Behavior Theory Models 11/28/2018

Without deep reflection, we have taken on the story of endings, assumed the story of extinction… We need new stories…a new narrative that would imagine another way, to learn the infinite mystery and movement at work in the world. Linda Hogan 11/28/2018

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