The American Health Care Act: Economic & Employment Consequences for States Leighton Ku, PhD, MPH Professor of Health Policy & Management & Director, Center.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Projections for Coverage and Exchange Participation Special Committee on Financial Institutions and Insurance Topeka, Kansas October 24, 2011 Suzanne Cleveland,

Advertisements

Mission: To promote responsible and equitable fiscal policies through research and education Joy Smolnisky, Director 808 N. West Ave., Sioux Falls, SD.

Medicaid expansion in sc. today’s talk  Background  Politics of expansion  Impact on People  Impact on Business  Impact on the Economy  Final Thoughts.

What does REMI say? sm Medicaid Expansion; Are You In or Are You Out? Presented by Chris Brown Senior Economic Associate.

Prepared for the Committee for Health Care for Massachusetts December 14, 2005 ACTION COSTS LESS The Health Care Amendment Standards and Options for Reform.

Medicaid Opportunities & Challenges Task Force June 26, 2013 Jeff Bechtel, Senior Consultant Summary of Congressional Budget Office Reports and Analysis.

Health Care Forecasting Conference James Baumgardner Deputy Assistant Director for Health Policy Congressional Budget Office February 19, 2009.

HEALTH INSURANCE REFORM: HIGHLIGHTS OF MERGED SENATE DEMOCRATIC BILL.

The Tattered Safety Net James G. Anderson, Ph.D. Purdue University.

Major Health Issues The Affordable Healthcare Act.

The Importance of Economic Census Data for Federal Policy Katharine G. Abraham Member, Council of Economic Advisers Hi-Beams for the Economic Road Ahead.

The Hilltop Health Care Reform Simulation Model Hamid Fakhraei, Ph.D. July 2012.

Oklahoma SoonerCare and the Affordable Care Act: Changes on the Horizon Buffy Heater, MPH Director of Planning & Development October 12,

A Few Facts 1.Federal spending in FY 2000 and 2001 as a percent of GDP is the lowest since Federal government spending (not including social security,

Exhibit 1. Fifteen Million Young Adults Ages 19–25 Enrolled in or Stayed on Their Parents’ Health Plan in Past 12 Months Distribution of 15 million adults.

The Affordable Care Act. What is it? Affordable Care Act was designed to: – Increase the quality and affordability of health insurance – Decrease the.

E L P ASO C OUNTY C OLORADO E L P ASO C OUNTY C OLORADO Sequestration Impacts Nicola Sapp County Budget Officer November 13, 2012.

Comparison of Major Health Care Reform Proposals BushKerry Aims to Cover All Americans X Tax Credits for Premiums XX Automatic Enrollment/ Individual Mandate.

Understanding Health Reform CHOICE Regional Health Network.

Excess cost growth in Medicare, Medicaid, and all other health care spending Source: CBO, A Federal Perspective on Health Care Policy and Costs, 2008.

HEALTH IN COLORADO GOVERNOR HICKENLOOPER’S VISION.

Medicare, Medicaid, and Health Care Reform Todd Gilmer, PhD Professor of Health Policy and Economics Department of Family and Preventive Medicine 1.

THE COMMONWEALTH FUND The 2009 Congressional Health Reform Bills: Insurance Coverage Sara R. Collins, Ph.D., Vice President Rachel Nuzum, M.P.H., Senior.

Domestic Policy Social Welfare and Health. 3 The Evolution of Social Welfare Policies  Most of our major federal social welfare programs were developed.

Delaware Health Care Commission February 17, 2005 Alice Burton, Director AcademyHealth.

Medicaid “Reform” and Mental Health Leighton Ku Senior Fellow Presentation at NAMI Conference, June 2005

Perspectives on Economic Policy and the Economy SIEPR Economic Summit 2012 Stanford University March 9, 2012 Laura D. Tyson S.K. and Angela Chan Professor.

Medicaid Expansion in McLennan County. Health spending increases Amount of federal taxes paid by Texas (Greater Waco) citizens and firms is not impacted.

An Overview of the Affordable Care Act An Overview of the Affordable Care Act.

Impact of Health Reform on: The Uninsured # of uninsured reduced from 46 million today to ~23 million in Safety net hospital funding through Medicare.

Leading Through Health Reform Karen Minyard, Ph.D.

Genevieve Kenney The Urban Institute National Health Policy Conference February 12, 2007 The Employer-based Health Care System - Shifting Responsibilities:

Modeling Health Reform in Massachusetts John Holahan June 4, 2008 THE URBAN INSTITUTE.

2013 QHP Eligible Uninsured Better Health Together.

2013 QHP Eligible Uninsured Cowlitz Family Health Center.

1. ACA Progress to Date - Summary Coverage 10.2 million enrolled on Marketplaces as of March 31, million additional Medicaid enrollees since.

What Can States Do About the Uninsured? Kenneth E. Thorpe, Ph.D. Robert W. Woodruff Professor and Chair Department of Health Policy and Management Rollins.

Marketplaces Alan D. Albright Senior Associate General Counsel Anthem, Inc.

The American Health Care Act

The Health Insurance Provisions of the 2009 Congressional Health Reform Bills: Coverage, Affordability and Costs Sara Collins, Ph.D. Vice President The.

Health Policy & Advocacy in Changing Times

The Great American Health Care Debate Continues…

How Would the American Health Care Act Change Medicaid?

Health Reform Update: Work in Congress and by the Administration

Change in Washington… Is seismic

Impact of the AHCA on Medicaid

The Impact of Health Reform

HEALTH CARE POLICY.

Medicaid: Big Decisions Ahead

CBO Projects the Number of People Without Health Insurance Would Nearly Double to 51 Million by 2026 Under the AHCA Difference of 23 million by 2026 Congressional.

Percent of population under age 65 uninsured, 2013−2016

OACT Analysis of Health Reform Legislation

Additional Amount Spent in Annual Premiums Each Year Due to Repeal of Individual Mandate vs. Average Tax Cut in Senate Bill, 2019–2027 Additional amount.

Additional Amount Spent in Annual Premiums Each Year Due to Repeal of Individual Mandate vs. Average Tax Cut in Senate Bill, 2019–2027 Additional amount.

Additional Amount Spent in Annual Premiums Each Year Due to Repeal of Individual Mandate vs. Average Tax Cut in Senate Bill, 2019–2027 Additional amount.

The Current State of the Uninsured in Wisconsin

The Impact of Health Reform

Sales across state lines

Health Insurance Coverage and Uninsured Trends

Family Voices of CA Health Summit

Key Points From CBO Analysis of American Health Care Act (AHCA)

Millions of uninsured, ages 0–64 Romney Baseline Affordable Care Act

New Coverage for 45 Million Uninsured 12m 19m 13m <1m

President Bush’s Health Plan

CBO estimate of Affordable Care Act of 2010

Source of Insurance Coverage Under the Affordable Care Act and Governor Romney’s Plan Compared with Baseline, 2022 Among million people ages 0–64.

Major Sources of Savings and Revenues Compared with Projected Spending, Net Cumulative Effect on Federal Deficit, 2010–2019 Dollars in billions CBO estimate.

CBO estimate of Affordable Care Act of 2010

Uninsured young adults ages 19–29 Federal Poverty Level Percent

Coverage and Changes in Spending Compared to Current Law, 2020

Presentation transcript:

The American Health Care Act: Economic & Employment Consequences for States Leighton Ku, PhD, MPH Professor of Health Policy & Management & Director, Center for Health Policy Research June 2017

Purpose and Methods CBO and others have examined effects of American Health Care Act (AHCA) on insurance coverage and costs. 23 million more uninsured 14 million fewer covered by Medicaid due to phase down of Medicaid expansions, per capita caps and other changes. We assess potential effects on economies and employment in all 50 states and DC from 2018-26. Begin by using CBO estimates of changes in federal funding. Examine combined effects of changes in Medicaid, premium tax subsidies, tax repeals and other changes. Then model effects on state employment and economies using a regional economic model, PI+ from REMI.

The Rise and Fall in Employment If AHCA Enacted # of Jobs Total Employment 864,000 Baseline Health Care Employment -924,000

Key National Findings: Total Changes 2018 2026 CHANGES IN FEDERAL FUNDING: Tax Repeal $45 bil. $102 bil. Coverage-Related Spending (bil $) -$6 bil. -$160 bil. Net Change in Federal Deficit (bil $) $39 bil. -$58 bil CHANGES IN ECONOMIC OUTPUTS: Total Employment 864,000 -924,000 Health Care -24,000 -725,000 All Other 888,000 -199,000 Gross State Product (bil $) $91 bil. -$93 bil. Business Output (bil $) $160 bil. -$148 bil.

Effects of Coverage vs. Tax Changes 2018 2026 Coverage Related Changes Federal Funds -$6 bil. -$160 bil. Total Employment 24,000 -1,940,000 Health Care -100,000 -829,000 Gross State Product $5 bil. -$235 bil. Tax Repeal Changes $45 bil. $102 bil. 837,000 1,018,000 76,000 104,000 $86 bil. $142 bil. Major factor leading to job loss is the large cuts to Medicaid. Followed by changes in premium tax credits. Tax changes are less effective in stimulating growth.

Top Ten State Losses