Interactions between the Responses of North American Climate to El Nino/La Nina and to Secular Warming Trend in the Indian-Western Pacific Oceans Gabriel Lau Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA Princeton University

CORRELATION: SST(FMA) vs NINO INDEX(NDJ) MODEL OBSERVATION (Alexander et al. 2002, J.Clim., Fig.2) (Alexander et al. 2002, J.Clim., Fig.3)

200 mb Z JJA(1) IWP-CLIMO

Correlation with Great Plains Precipitation 200 mb Z Schubert et al. 2004

CORRELATION: 200 mb [Z] vs NINO3.4 in Jan(1)

SST

Fig 1

SST Sensitivity Runs Name of Experiment SST Forcing EN El Niño LN La Niña T(IWP) 50-yr Trend in Indo-Western Pacific T(IWP)+EN Sum of IWP Trend and El Niño T(IWP)+LN Sum of IWP Trend and La Niña C Climatological

Fig 4

Fig 5a

Fig 5b

Fig 6

Fig 7a

C20C A1B Fig 7b

C20C A1B Fig 7c

Fig 8

Fig2 a

Fig 2b

Fig 3

Fig 9 (alternate arrangement)

The Atmospheric Bridge

Experiment Design GFDL R30 14-Layer GCM Total of 16 realizations 1950 SST Predicted by Mixed Layer Model SST Anomaly Prescribed SST Climatology Prescribed 1950 1999 Total of 16 realizations GFDL R30 14-Layer GCM Prescribed SST in Deep Tropical Central / Eastern Pacific Two-way coupling with a variable-depth ocean mixed-layer elsewhere