4 Risk factors for instability External Internal Bad regional neighborhood Geopolitical Competition Organized crime and terrorist networks.

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Presentation transcript:

4

Risk factors for instability External Internal Bad regional neighborhood Geopolitical Competition Organized crime and terrorist networks Conflict financing systems Climate change Low GDP/capita Economic decline History of conflict Natural resource dependency Horizontal inequality Demographic patterns HIV/AIDS 5

Country capacity and resilience Constraints on state power Political institutions Legal/economic institutions Executive checks & balances Social Contract Leadership Legitimacy Expectations vs. delivery State Capacity Security Macro-economic fundamentals Public goods provision Civil Society Traditional/ religious/ interest groups 6

External stabilising factors Security Guarantees Bilateral Multilateral Political Relationships Bilateral diplomatic ties Regional organization Economic Associations Open external markets High quality FDI Remittances 7

GAO June 18, 2008 GAO-08-883T Testimony Table 3: Defense Assessment of ANP Capabilities, as of April 2008 Police units CM1Fully Capable CM2Capable withCoalition Support CM3 Partially Capable CM4Not Capable Unit Not Formed or Not Reportinga Uniformed Police Districts (365) 6 296 57 Border Police Battalions (33) 33 Civil Order Police Battalions (20) 2 10 Counter Narcotics Police Units (15) 3 Number of ANP units (433) 12 (3%) 18 (4%) 334 (77%) 69 (16%) GAO June 18, 2008 Testimony Before the Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs, Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, House of Representatives “AFGHANISTAN SECURITY” “U.S. Efforts to Develop Capable Afghan Police Forces Face Challenges and Need a Coordinated, Detailed Plan to Help Ensure Accountability” Statement of Charles Michael Johnson, Jr., Director International Affairs and Trade GAO-08-883T

Table 3: Defense Assessment of ANP Capabilities, as of April 2008 Police units CM1Fully Capable CM2Capable withCoalition Support CM3 Partially Capable CM4Not Capable Unit Not Formed or Not Reportinga Uniformed Police Districts (365) Border Police Battalions (33) Civil Order Police Battalions (20) Counter Narcotics Police Units (15) Number of ANP units (433) 18 16 22 317 61