Food Systems and Food Policy: A Global Perspective Per Pinstrup-Andersen Eurasia Center for Food Security Moscow State University November 2, 2016

What do societies want from food and agricultural systems? Food Security and good nutrition Efficient and Sustainable Resource Use Reasonable incomes for farmers Reasonable prices for consumers Meeting Non-food Demands Support of general economic growth

Action: Overriding goal Speed up eradication of food insecurity, malnutrition and natural resource degradation. Assure healthy diets for all Pursue sustainability

Total World Cereals Production +23.3%

Total World Cereals Stock +31.3% +70.8% +81.6%

World Market Price Change June 2012 – June 2015 Corn -49.8 % Wheat -25.0 % Rice -38.9 % Cereals -30.9 % Food -19.8 % Source: AMIS, July, 2015

World Market Price Change August 2015 – August 2016 Maize + 7.8% Wheat - 7.2 % Rice + 3.5 % Soybeans + 11.7 % Source: AMIS, September 2016

The Triple Burden of Malnutrition Energy and protein deficiencies: Hunger Specific nutrient deficiencies: Hidden Hunger Excessive net energy intake: Overweight & Obesity

Population growth

Annual Average Population Growth Rate, %

Diet transition

Change in the Contribution of Each Food Group to Energy Intake 1980-2005

Key Drivers of Future Food Systems Food and Water Markets and Institutions

Key Drivers of Future Food Systems Food and Water Markets and Institutions Income Growth, Urbanization and Trade

Key Drivers of Future Food Systems Food and Water Markets and Institutions Income Growth, Urbanization and Trade Research and Technological Change

Key Drivers of Future Food Systems Food and Water Markets and Institutions Income Growth, Urbanization and Trade Research and Technological Change Competition for Food, Water, Resources

Key Drivers of Future Food Systems Food and Water Markets and Institutions Income Growth, Urbanization and Trade Research and Technological Change Competition for Food, Water, Resources Land and Water Tenure

Key Drivers of Future Food Systems Food and Water Markets and Institutions Income Growth, Urbanization and Trade Research and Technological Change Competition for Food, Water, Resources Land and Water Tenure Climate Change, Nat. Res. Management

Key Drivers of Future Food Systems Food and Water Markets and Institutions Income Growth, Urbanization and Trade Research and Technological Change Competition for Food, Water, Resources Land and Water Tenure Climate Change, Nat. Res. Management Population Growth

Key Drivers of Future Food Systems Food and Water Markets and Institutions Income Growth, Urbanization and Trade Research and Technological Change Competition for Food, Water, Resources Land and Water Tenure Climate Change, Nat. Res. Management Population Growth Goals of Public Policy for food sector

Consumer Demand Challenges Poverty and uneven income distribution Intra-household power and preferences Intra-household allocation of food Preference for calorie-dense, nutrient-poor diets Lack of knowledge

Suggested aims of consumer-oriented policy Enhance employment and other poverty-reducing initiatives Reduce poor women’s time pressures Enhance education and knowledge Reduce food waste Shift relative emphasis from rural to urban food security

Supply Challenges Adaptation to climate change Coping with new Biotic and abiotic stresses Expanding production to meet future demand Sustainable management of nat. res. Adjusting the supply chain to dietary transition and nutrition and health goals Coping with anti-science sentiments

Public policy and investment for food systems Rural infrastructure investment Roads, transportation facilities Water management facilities Institutions

Public policy and investment for food systems Rural infrastructure investment Agricultural research Productivity increase Sustainable intensification Increasing commodity diversity and nutrient content

Public policy and investment for food systems Rural infrastructure investment Agricultural research Domestic input and output markets

Public policy and investment for food systems Rural infrastructure investment Agricultural research Domestic input and output markets Land and water tenure Farm size, ownership structure, scale economies Sustainable land and water management

Public policy and investment for food systems Rural infrastructure investment Agricultural research Domestic input and output markets Land and water tenure Trade and domestic price policy Role of world market in national food supplies Food security vs. food sovereignty vs. self sufficiency Global and domestic price volatility

Policy Responses to Global Food Price Volatility Decouple world market and domestic prices Compensate losers

Decouple world market and domestic prices Trade policies to reduce price transmission Direct price control Removal of VAT on food Short term supply management Production expansions

Rice Prices in the World Market, China and India, 2005-2012 Source: Baltzer (2013)

Wheat Prices in the World Market, South Africa and Bangladesh, 2005-2012 Source: Baltzer (2013)

Maize Prices in the World Market, Malawi and Zambia, 2005-2012 Source: Baltzer (2013)

Policy options to respond to food price volatility Protect price signals Emphasize targeted compensation over price interventions Risk management tools for all system agents Seek high levels of price transmission Seek low levels of trade restrictions

Policy options to respond to food price volatility (2) Increase supply elasticities for food Improve management of cereal stocks Seek competitive behavior in national and international supply chains Strengthen international agreements regarding exporter behavior Improve public-private collaboration

Sources (1) Per Pinstrup-Andersen (Editor). Food Price Policy in an era of Market Instability. Oxford University Press, 2015. Https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/food-price-era-market-instability (open access) Per Pinstrup-Andersen and Derrill D. Watson II. Food Policy for Developing Countries. Cornell University Press, 2011.