John McCain Union Research Michael Podhorzer April 26, 2008

AFL-CIO McCain Research Columbus, Dayton focus groups Sandwich test (4,000 interviews) Large scale survey – Battleground states 4,500 Active (Including 1660 “swing”) 726 Retired 791 Householders 880 Working America 10,000+ total interviews Polling Consortium AFL-CIO

Trial Heats AFL-CIO

Trial Heats over time - Active Union Members Battleground states AFL-CIO Sources: Hart, Lake 2000, 2004, 2006, 2008

How We Test Exclude Strong Partisans Develop Three Approaches Randomly Select 4 Groups of 20,000 One Group is Control; Receives No Treatment Survey 1,000 People in Each Group Compare the Results Find the Subgroups that Move the Most and the Least Roll Out the Mailing to Everyone in Those Subgroups AFL-CIO

Procedure Tested Messages Ohio Sandwich Test Procedure Tested Messages 1. Robo Call 2. 3. Robo Call AFL-CIO

Member Featured in Veterans’ Piece AFL-CIO

Impact of Veterans’ Piece D+31 D+22 Generic or named Congressional? AFL-CIO Source: Hart Research, April 2008

Vietnam Vet McCain v. President McCain AFL-CIO Source: Hart Research, April 2008

Vietnam Vet McCain v. President McCain AFL-CIO Source: Hart Research, April 2008

Vietnam Vet McCain v. President McCain AFL-CIO Source: Hart Research, April 2008

Strongest Arguments Swing Voters - Elements Rising prices (gas, food, health care costs) Business as usual (26 years in DC) Lobbyist connection Special interest connection Out of touch We need help now AFL-CIO

Weakest Arguments Swing Voters Bush economics Failed policies of the past 100 years in Iraq “Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran” AFL-CIO

Strongest Arguments Base Voters Bush economics Failed policies of the past 100 years in Iraq “Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran” AFL-CIO

We Must Define McCain for Working Americans

Labor 2008 12.3 million AFL-CIO voters in battleground states Active 4.3 Million Retired 1.2 Million Household 2.9 Million Working America 3.9 Million 12.3 Million AFL-CIO Source: AFL-CIO

Events Worksites Mail Phone E-mail Website How We Defeat McCain AFL-CIO

Plan of Attack Member-to-member phone banks Rapid Action events Worksite leaflets Microtargeting “Sandwich” mailings to “swing” voters Nationwide walks May 17 AFL-CIO

John McCain: Nowhere to Hide Rapid Action AFL-CIO

The McCain Revealed Campaign www.mccainrevealed.com AFL-CIO

Source: CNN Exit Polls, November 2004 2004 Electoral Map AFL-CIO AFL-CIO Source: CNN Exit Polls, November 2004

2004 Electoral Map Without Union Members Illinois and Oregon would turn red if union households were used AFL-CIO AFL-CIO Source: CNN Exit Polls, November 2004