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Presentation transcript:

February 2010 CPI Fan Chart 1 The Bank’s fan charts express the uncertainty about the future Forecast is conditional on the assumed policy path. In this case market interest rates

February 2010 CPI Fan Chart 2 Percentage change on year earlier

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Distributional Cross Sections 6 Inflation in 2013Q1: February 2010 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Cross-sections better highlight the balance of risks

Other Approaches: The ECB 7 Average annual percentage change 2009 2010 2011 HICP Inflation 0.3 0.8 - 1.6 0.9 - 2.1 Ranges are twice the mean absolute projection error (excluding outliers) Sources: “New procedure for constructing eurosystem and ECB staff projection ranges” December 2009 “Eurosystem staff Macroeconomic Projections for the Euro Area” February 2010

Other Approaches: The Federal Reserve 8 Full ranges from 17 individual forecasts from Fed presidents and governors “Central Tendency” excludes three highest and three lowest forecasts Source: “Monetary Policy Report to the Congress” February 2010

Other Approaches: The Riksbank 9 Source: “Monetary Policy Report ” February 2010

Early Inflation Fan Charts 10 November 1995 Trumpet February 1996 Fan

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Distributional Cross Sections: 2012Q4 15 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 February Inflation Report November Inflation Report Probability

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target 16 Probability

Assessed probability inflation will be above target 17 Probability

Assessed probability inflation will be above target 18 Probability

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target

Assessed probability inflation will be above target 19 Probability

Three Dimensional Fan Chart 20