A Low Skills Equilibrium for Northern Ireland

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Presentation transcript:

A Low Skills Equilibrium for Northern Ireland Better Skills, Better Work, Better Lives 22 March 2018 Paul Mac flynn NERI (Nevin Economic Research Institute) Belfast Paul.macflynn@NERInstitute.net www.NERInstitute.net

A Low Skills Equilibrium for Northern Ireland? Persistently low skills - 16% of 16 to 64 year olds did not have a level 1 National Vocational Qualification Persistently low productivity - 2005 GVA per head was 80.6% of the UK average, 2015 73.8% Persistently low wages - The median weekly wage in NI was 92% of the UK average in 2016 up from 91% in 2006 A link between all 3 – a Low Skills Equilibrium. Need to look at both the supply and demand for Skills.

A Low Skills Equilibrium for Northern Ireland?

A Low Skills Equilibrium for Northern Ireland?

Low Skills

Low Skills

Low Value-added

Low Value-added

An Equilibrium?

Discouraged workforce

Discouraged firms

Policy Implications Find a way to convince BOTH firms and workers of the benefit of investing in skills Trade Unions uniquely placed to facilitate this. Fall in TU density poses problem. NI is an SME economy, that is a challenge to coordinated skills policy, but not an insurmountable one. Focus on the micro. Examples where skills coordination happens. Collective agreements between staff and workforce about investment for both.