Kathleen Farley, Tomer Duman, and Claus Holzapfel How long until the next bird? Analysis of methodology in long-term monitoring in avian cloud forest communities Kathleen Farley, Tomer Duman, and Claus Holzapfel @woodcockwatchNJ Photo: Jack Baddams

Constant Effort Methods Point Counts (PC) Mist Nets (MN) Nocturnal Surveys (OE) Opportunistic (OE) Camera Traps OK

Big Conservation Questions How many seasons do you need to sample a site before you have a good sense of biodiversity? How much does biodiversity change from year to year? What role does team size and turnover play in observing biodiversity? OK

Objectives: Effort & Efficient Effort: How much time, people, $ vs. Efficient: how much you gain OK

Objectives: Effort & Efficient Effort: How much time, people, $ vs. Efficient: how much you gain Modifying the SAC yields effort & efficiency. OK

Conservation Organization: Operation Wallacea Conduct long-term biodiversity research through education-based funding model Improve conservation awareness and management Empower local communities OK

Cusuco NP, Honduras: Biodiversity Hotspot Top 100 Irreplaceable Sites (Le Saout et al. 2013) Top 25 for amphibians 102 Amphibians/Reptiles 102 Mammals 266 Birds (Martin et al. 2016) 58 endemic Mesoamerican species 33 endemic highland forest species 37% declining globally Rare habitats: Dwarf Forests OK

Rationale Cusuco National Park, Honduras * * C.I.D., Tufts For my work with Opwall, I traveled to their research site in Cusucuo NP, Honduras to work on land which was originally Mayan. Today, it is a paper park – protected on paper as unsustainable development and deforestation continue. It is worth noting that the local indigenous and environmental leaders face high levels of systemic violence in their quest to preserve land, which was evident during my season there. C.I.D., Tufts “The situation of the indigenous peoples of Honduras is critical, since their rights over their lands, territories and natural resources are not protected, they face acts of violence when claiming their rights, in a general context of violence and impunity, and they lack access to justice. In addition, they suffer from inequality, poverty and a lack of basic social services, such as education and health.” - Special Rapporteur on the rights of indigenous peoples, UN

Rationale Cusuco National Park, Honduras * * Base Camp C.I.D., Tufts Villages Dwarf Forest Coffee & Agriculture Cloud Forest

Rationale Cusuco National Park, Honduras 7 camps 28 transects * Base Camp * Capuca x Villages Dwarf Forest Coffee & Agriculture Cloud Forest

Each Method Contributes Unique Species OK

SAC Over One Season 112 Explain CI 2014 Vegan package in R. Shaded region denotes standard deviation from randomization of the model. OK

SAC Over Two Seasons 120 112 2014 2015 OK

Detected Biodiversity Changes Annually 120 112 150 2014 2015 2014 & 2015 OK

Detected Biodiversity Changes Annually 58 44 45 OK

Species Recorded Over a Decade PC Species Recorded Over a Decade New Species (by year) Total Species (by year) Cumulative Species (over all years) OK

Effort Across Seasons: PC Year Observers PCs Species 2006 6 235 88 2007 5 329 123 2008 4 372 128 2009 2 325 65 2010 3 295 91 2011 454 149 2012 7 488 144 2013 374 116 2014 339 112 2015 10 584 120 OK

Species Recorded All Years MN Species Recorded All Years New Species (by year) Total Species (by year) Cumulative Species (over all years) OK

Effort Across Season: MN Year Observers Sites Days Operated Net-Meters Species 2012 7 6 32 2965 58 2013 28 2244 41 2014 5 6000 40 2015 10 39 7200 Operated Net-meters = # nets * length of nets * days of use OK

Quantifying Effort Develop a metric for comparing efficiency across seasons Create SAC Calculate species added between each successive point Invert to get number of additional PCs needed for a new species to be added Create a model Species Accumulation Curve. n+2 n+1 Calculate species added between each successive point*. spn+2 – spn+1 PCn+2 – PCn+1 Invert to determine number of additional PCs for the next species. Species ∝ PC *smoothed by averaging 2 previous and following points OK

How to Read an Effort Graph *Hypothetical Results* Additional effort needed for 1 new species Current Samples Collected (PC, mist net days, etc.) OK

How to Read an Effort Graph *Hypothetical Results* Additional effort needed for 1 new species More effort Less effort Current Samples Collected (PC, mist net days, etc.) OK

How to Read an Effort Graph *Hypothetical Results* Slope = efficiency Less efficient Additional effort needed for 1 new species More efficient More effort Less effort Current Samples Collected (PC, mist net days, etc.) OK

How long until a new species? PC How long until a new species? Not about how many species are detected *** . ** * OK

How long until a new species? PC How long until a new species? PC_num 0.045178 0.001017 44.437 < 2e-16 *** Year2007 -2.206179 0.627687 -3.515 0.000445 *** Year2008 1.255325 0.614114 2.044 0.041014 * Year2009 2.204414 0.657487 3.353 0.000808 *** Year2010 1.308177 0.643803 2.032 0.042231 * Year2011 -2.869790 0.600723 -4.777 1.85e-06 *** Year2012 -2.679638 0.596758 -4.490 7.33e-06 *** Year2013 -1.051011 0.616468 -1.705 0.088300 . Year2014 -1.856649 0.624256 -2.974 0.002957 ** Year2015 1.491040 0.593940 2.510 0.012102 * OK

How long until a new species? PC How long until a new species? PC_num 0.045178 0.001017 44.437 < 2e-16 *** Year2007 -2.206179 0.627687 -3.515 0.000445 *** Year2008 1.255325 0.614114 2.044 0.041014 * Year2009 2.204414 0.657487 3.353 0.000808 *** Year2010 1.308177 0.643803 2.032 0.042231 * Year2011 -2.869790 0.600723 -4.777 1.85e-06 *** Year2012 -2.679638 0.596758 -4.490 7.33e-06 *** Year2013 -1.051011 0.616468 -1.705 0.088300 . Year2014 -1.856649 0.624256 -2.974 0.002957 ** Year2015 1.491040 0.593940 2.510 0.012102 * * ** *** . ANCOVA Results y ~ ax R2: 66.3% Significance Codes *** <0.001 **<0.01 *< 0.05 . <0.1 *** . ** * OK

How long until a new species? MN How long until a new species? ANCOVA Results y ~ ax R2: 88.6% ** *** Significance Codes *** <0.001 **<0.01 *< 0.05 . <0.1 *** OK

Recap Modifying SAC will yield efficiency scores for each season which are influenced by effort

Recap Modifying SAC will yield efficiency scores for each season which are influenced by effort Each method contributes unique species

Recap Modifying SAC will yield efficiency scores for each season which are influenced by effort Each method contributes unique species Effort impacts efficiency Team size & experience Sample size

Why This is Amazing Quantifies effort to increase detections Streamline & correct long-term study site efforts Applicable across taxa Next step: Factors influencing effort Using early season results to predict efficiency

The Independent Democratishe Nation of Guanales Acknowledgements Funding: Rutgers University TA/GA Professional Development Fund Jack Baddams, OpWall Anthony Brusa, Tony Cullen, Simon Garnier, Nick Henshue , Samuel Jones, Gareth Russell, Sahil Wadhwa Statistical & Scientific Support: Cusuco 2015 Science & Support Staff The Independent Democratishe Nation of Guanales