Weather, Climate, Water Operational Service Delivery Dissemination and Communication of Forecasts, Warnings and other Products

Purpose of Session Service Delivery: Public Weather Services Climate Haleh Kootval Climate Leslie Malone Hydrology and Water Resources Wolfgang Grabs 28/11/2018

WMO provides Services to meet the requirements of the community in response to: Immediate needs of the public and specialized users Tropical cyclones: strong wind, storm surge Air pollution Floods: flash, river, coastal Drought Health: vector borne diseases, heat (Humanitarian organizations) Channels for delivery Tools for such response. 28/11/2018

Elements of Successful Warning Service Elements of a successful warning service = recipients: Receive the warning; Understand the information presented; Believe the information; Personalize the information; Make correct decisions; and, Respond in an adequate manner. 28/11/2018

The Need to Warn Met/hydro experts crucial role Scientific knowledge alone not sufficient NMHSs + Hazards Community (other government organizations +local and national officials +emergency managers +media +voluntary + humanitarian organizations +weather sensitive businesses) ……. 28/11/2018

By Working Together Jointly create preparedness plans, warning systems, mitigation strategies, public education 28/11/2018

Warning System Goal WS: maximizing actions for safety Components of a WS: Detection and warning Communication: complete only after information received and understood (vs Fire and Forget) Response: actions of recipients depend on: Message content and clarity Credibility of issuing organization State of preparedness of receiving authorities supported by NMHSs 28/11/2018

Dissemination and Communication Effective dissemination: Need to cover as large an audience as possible: Backups and redundancies (Haiti) Must reach: Hazards community (including media) Other government orgs NGOs and Humanitarian orgs Businesses (tourism, transport, others) Media: indispensable partner in PWS multiple channels: traditional, mobile and Social networking Public education: avoid reinterpretation 28/11/2018

Dissemination & Communication Tools Floods 28/11/2018

Communication and EWS Communication of the message as important as the message Communication and/or dissemination inadequacies can lead to catastrophes Forecasts of impacts and uncertainty required “sole authority” principle in preparing and issuing warnings: Contradictory information from different sources leads to confusion 28/11/2018

Severe Weather Information Centre, SWIC Centralized source for media access to tropical cyclone warnings and information issued by NMHSs and RSMCc WMO Members in all tropical cyclone basins participate Displays all tropical cyclone warnings and information Displays all heavy rain/snow/thunderstorms observations Partnership with Google Ultimate goal: to develop SWIC into a Multi-hazard Information and Resource Centre 28/11/2018

Severe.worldweather.wmo.int 28/11/2018

World Weather Information Service (WWIS) website WWIS (worldweather.wmo.int) Coordinated by Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) Available in 8 languages: Arabic, Chinese, English, French, German, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish 152 Members participating in the Website Provides official weather forecasts and climatological data from NMHSs for 1,316 cities to public and media Over 10 million page visits per month 28/11/2018

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Visualizing Weather Warnings Meteoalarm www.meteoalarm.eu 28/11/2018

Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) Common Alerting Protocol is a standard message format designed for All-Media, All-Hazard communications: any and all media: (television, radio, telephone, fax, highway signs, e-mail, Web sites, RSS "Blogs", ...) any and all kinds of hazard: (weather, fires, earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, child abductions, disease outbreaks, air quality warnings, beach closings, transportation problems, power outages, ...) to anyone: the public at large; designated groups (civic authority, responders, etc.); specific people Requested by WMO Members 28/11/2018

CAP and PWS Existing warning systems are a mix of different technologies and procedures CAP will allow consistent warning messages disseminated simultaneously over many different warning systems, thus increasing warning effectiveness 28/11/2018

Climate Floods 28/11/2018

Bridging the gap between providers and users of climate information 19 28/11/2018

Elements of Climate Services Information System 20 28/11/2018

Climate Risk Management Concept An integrated climate-environment-society system Multidisciplinary cross-sectoral planning Undertanding of the user’s environment for decision-making Knowledge of the historical climate of the location(s), and potential future conditions; and improvements to present knowledge to meet user needs A sustained, collaborative, participatory process Maximizing positive and minimizing negative impacts of climate variability and change Facilitate proactive decision making within climate sensitive sectors in dealing with today’s climate variability and in adaptation to long-term climate change with a focus on: user’s environment for decision-making: User’s decision-making processes Socio-economic and environmental factors affecting user’s vulnerability and resilience User’s susceptability to climate variation and change and their climate information requirements sustained, collaborative, participatory process: Continuous, interactive dialogue/communications and engagement Co-production of knowledge; documenting and sharing experiences Effective feedback process between user and provider 28/11/2018

Climate information, products, predictions, services for CRM Risk Assessment Extensive HQ climate data; Hazard analysis; climate trends; climate predictions (monthly, seasonal to decadal) and projections Reduction of risk in crisis response and recovery Weather forecasts and warnings via Early Warning Systems; real time climate monitoring products; provider engagement with emergency planning and response communities, the public and other users; effective communications mechanisms Preparedness to reduce risk Extensive HQ climate data; Hazard analysis; climate trends; climate predictions (monthly, seasonal to decadal) and projections; joint provider/user engagement in planning Transfer of risk Data and related information for use in financial and other mechanisms Development of adaptation strategies The accumunlated knowledge of past present and future climate patterns including potential changes in extremes/hazards; joint provider/user engagement in planning 28/11/2018

…engagement of NMSs in CRM Data Information Predictions Scenarios Tools Knowledge Decision making Climate Observations Climate Data Management Climate Monitoring Seasonal Climate Outlooks Interaction with users Specialised climate products Decadal Climate Prediction Long-term Climate Projections Customized climate products Climate Application Tools 28/11/2018

Global Seasonal Climate Update Effective products (El Nino..)….expand on these Capability (GPC, RCC, RCOF…)…growing Demand…growing GSCU vision: timely; regular; expert; consensus-based; Monitoring/prediction of major features/anomalies Global/continelntal scale temperature, prediction patterns Info on robustness, uncertainty Invitation! Help shape this process/product 28/11/2018

HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES Floods 28/11/2018

Integrated Flood Management (IFM) Integration of land and water management in a river basin Provides guidance on flood-related issues http://apfm.info Let me come back to the planned IFM HelpDesk The HelpDesk is planned as a facility that will provide guidance on flood-related issues to countries that want to adopt the IFM concept The IFM HelpDesk is the central instrument for a demand-driven approach to the activies of the programme and for hands-on, customized guidance for countries that want to adopt the IFM concept. Provide guidance and momentum for reform in favour of IFM in countries or river basins in developing long-term flood management policies, strategies and institutional arrangements; Serve as a link between flood management practitioners and decision-makers and multi-disciplinary scientific expertise and best practice in various fields such as hydrology, river engineering, legal and institutional development, ecology, sociology and development economics. 28/11/2018

IFM HelpDesk provides: Quick access to flood management information Guidance for activities towards IFM A continuous and sustainable capacity development mechanism A link between flood management practitioners or decision makers and experts in various fields A link between technical and financial partners Let me come back to the planned IFM HelpDesk The HelpDesk is planned as a facility that will provide guidance on flood-related issues to countries that want to adopt the IFM concept The IFM HelpDesk is the central instrument for a demand-driven approach to the activies of the programme and for hands-on, customized guidance for countries that want to adopt the IFM concept. Provide guidance and momentum for reform in favour of IFM in countries or river basins in developing long-term flood management policies, strategies and institutional arrangements; Serve as a link between flood management practitioners and decision-makers and multi-disciplinary scientific expertise and best practice in various fields such as hydrology, river engineering, legal and institutional development, ecology, sociology and development economics. 28/11/2018

Development and Implementation of Flash Flood Guidance System with global coverage Implemented in defined Regions (SADC, Black Sea/Middle East, Mekong Basin, Hispaniola..) To strengthen regional capacity for timely and accurate flash flood warnings A diagnostic tool for Flash Flood Alerts and Warnings Indicates amount of rainfall required to cause a flash flood in small flash flood prone basins 28/11/2018

Flash Flood Guidance System Benefits Early awareness of impending local flash flood threats for all potentially vulnerable areas Enhancement of collaboration with meteorologists and hydrologists and disaster management agencies Improvement of community awareness of flash flood disaster threat and mitigation – to respond to warnings Development of products for high risk flash flood areas to effectively plan future development. 28/11/2018

WMO FLOOD FORECASTING INITIATIVE (FFI) Improved Meteorological and Hydrological Cooperation For Improved Flood Forecasting Overall Objective of global/regional activities Improve the capacity of meteorological and hydrological services to jointly deliver timely and more accurate products and services required in flood forecasting and warning. 28/11/2018

SELECTED ACTIVITIES OF THE FFI STRATEGY AND ACTION PLAN Strengthening of Observing and Information Systems Improvement of Hydrological and Meteorological Forecasting Practices and Products Strengthening of Institutional Coordination, Cooperation and Integration between NMSs and NHSs Formulation of Technical Documentation and Guidelines related to Flood Forecasting Supporting Disaster Management Addressing Climate Variability and Change in the Light of Extreme Events Demonstrating the Value of Meteorological and Hydrological Data, Information and Products 28/11/2018

Key Deliverable of the FFI Development tailor-made: Options for development of NMSs and NHSs for improved service delivery in flood forecasting Development of Integrated Products Development and Implementation of Demonstration Projects 28/11/2018

Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP) WMO Expected outcome: Integrated software coupling meteorological (tropical cyclone), hydrological (river) and ocean (storm surge) forecasting models Regions/countries for the implementation: 1. Bay of Bengal (Bangladesh) 2. Caribbean (Dominican Republic) Partners: WMO, IOC-UNESCO, Oceanographic and Hydrographic Institutions 28/11/2018

Storm Surge Watch Scheme provides WMO Open source numerical models for ocean waves and storm surges connected with tropical cyclones, and guide to conducting operational experiments with these models Open access to all products and guide to using these products for operational forecast Assistance with processing capabilities and implementation of warning services Partners: WMO, Global-Advanced Centres, IOC-UNESCO 28/11/2018

Contacts in WMO Haleh Kootval HKootval@wmo.int Leslie Malone LMalone@wmo.int Wolfgang Grabs: WGrabs@wmo.int Eliot Christian: EChristian@wmo.int 28/11/2018