THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OF CIVIL SOCIETY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION BY 2030 Key findings Goran Forbici

METHODOLOGY Broad, as well as in-depth approach: Wide online survey: 180 respondents 33 European CSO networks 147 CSOs from 24 EU member states  Desk research Review of over 30 studies, reports, academic research papers on development trends and future prospects of EU CSOs 27 interviews: members of EESC, EESC Liaison Group, CoE, Third Sector Impact academic consortium and representatives of national and European CSO platforms and global CSO network 2 workshops with members of Civil Society Europe

GENERAL INSIGHTS Differences between member states make it difficult to measure and compare national CSO sectors Comparing the number of CSOs is misleading due to vast differences in their size; a sector with a few very large CSOs carries more weight than one with many small CSOs. Diminishing differences between sectors in EU regions All three methods identified the same or very similar development factors Current societal trends will most likely continue to influence CSOs until 2030

5 MOST INFLUENTIAL SOCIETAL TRENDS AFFECTING CSOS Demographic changes Economic crisis Digitalisation Populism Shrinking civic space

EFFECT ON CSOs Stronger and changing relations with the authorities: more and more business-like -> social policies increasingly follow a social-investment-logical; CSOs have to do more to show their (social) impact; higher/increasing demand for CSOs services Changes in lifestyle: people less willing/able to commit their time to CSOs; ageing CSO management and rigid management structures, Decrease of national public funds, Revenue structures changed, Public funding returned to the pre-crisis amount. But not the character: From stakeholder to provider Decline of citizen engagement with CSOs, since people can now directly participate in public life, help a cause (without interacting with CSOs) Negative effects of digitalisation on the public discourse: lack of dialogue, in-depth discussions, loss of a lot of relevant information Increasing pressure on CSOs (Western Europe: decrease in funds for advocacy, Eastern Europe: threats to freedom of assembly and expression)

REMAINING CHALLENGES Development of new services Leadership succession; gradual, mentored and conflict-free change in CSO management structures. Attracting and keeping young staff Upgrading and re-inventing CSOs’ societal role + Showing CSO social impact Developing and promoting new activities, digital skills, importance of data security etc. Defending and re-instating the trust in basic freedoms and human rights and fostering civic education Improving CSO transparency, accountability and credibility Developing an EU funding mechanism that would offer financial and other support to opposition civil society

RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES Upgrade service delivery and increase social innovations, collaboration with other CSOs, exchange of services Proactive monitoring of implementation, quality and impact of services To acknowledge the shift from ‘trust me to prove me’ discourse: enhance transparency, accountability and social impact Support to infrastructural CSO networking and adaptation and upgrade of services + invest in CSO start-ups, similarly as they do in business Challenging the assumptions that public expenditure cuts are inevitable and privatisation the way forward Realistic approach to digitalisation, its positive effects, but also limitations. Digital technologies should not replace direct relations, but complement them Institutions should promote and financially support civic education and enhancement of media literacy Supporting and promoting the role of public media service as an important trustworthy source EU should apply the same criteria of the rule of law that are used for enlargement and neighbourhood countries to EU member states + monitor civic space in Europe and financially support advocacy and awareness-raising Promotion of Pan-European CSO solidarity: cooperation and support between national CSOs sectors, reacting to the shrinking of civic space in other countries

TACKLING CHALLENGES TOGETHER - COOPERATION OF CSOS AND NATIONAL/EU INSTITUTIONS Joint debates and awareness-raising about the importance of CSO advocacy activities Cooperation in development of new services for tackling new emerging needs Joint promotion of a giving culture, as well as volunteering (Collaborative) development of a consultation mechanism that would enable broad consultation with citizens as well as properly involve key stakeholders Capacity-building of public officials on participatory decision-making Broad promotion of RIA practices among member states Avoiding equalisation of CSO advocacy with corporate lobbying EU institutions need to address the shrinking civic space, promote civic education, democracy, rule of law and the role of CSOs Development of support mechanisms (especially funding) to help CSOs tackle the issue of shrinking civic space

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