1 Estimation and Awareness Study

Introduction Issues & Answers, a national market research company was asked to conduct a benchmark study for the Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research at The University of Montana and Montanas Tourism Advisory Council to assess the interest level for The Lewis and Clark Bicentennial Commemoration plan for

A total of 2,020 interviews were conducted by telephone using a nationally projectable sampling of the Continental U.S. less the state of Montana. Adults aged 21 and over qualified. Results are projectable with a statistical error of +/-2.18% with 95% confidence. The interviews were conducted in January All data weighted back to gender, ethnicity and age statistics. Methodology

Objectives Specific Objectives of the study are: To determine the level of awareness that exists for The Lewis and Clark Expedition To establish a benchmark of interest in attending a bicentennial celebration to be held in Montana in To provide an estimate of the number of visitors that may visit the state for the event

Profile: All Respondents Base: Total Respondents, N=2020

Profile: All Respondents Base: Total Respondents, N=2020

Profile: All Respondents Base: Total Respondents, N=2020

Traveled For Pleasure In The Past 5 Years Base: Total Respondents, N=2020 Q.1 Have you taken a pleasure trip out of your home state in the past 5 years? Q.2 Do you sometimes visit historical sites or attend historical events when you travel for pleasure?

Likelihood Of Taking An Out Of State Pleasure Trip In The Next 5 Years Base: Total Respondents, N=2020 Q.3 How likely are you to take a pleasure trip out of your home state in the next 5 years?

Interest In Visiting Montana In The Next 5 Years Base: Total Respondents, N=2020 Q.4 Do you have any interest in visiting Montana in the next 5 years?

Whether Ever Visited The State Of Montana Base: Total Respondents, N=2020 Q.5 Have you ever visited the state of Montana?

Length Of Time Since Last Trip To Montana Base: Visited State Of Montana, N=465 Q.6 How long has it been since your last trip to Montana?

Purpose Of Trip(s) To Montana Base: Visited State Of Montana, N=465 Q.7 What were the purposes of your trips to Montana?

Visited Historical Sites/Events While In Montana Base: Visited State Of Montana, N=465 Q.8 While in Montana, did you ever visit a historical site or attend a historical event?

Profile Of Those That Have Visited Historical Sites/Events While In Montana Base: Visited Historical Sites, N=182 Q.8 While in Montana, did you ever visit a historical site or attend a historical event?

Awareness Plus Level Of Knowledge Of Lewis & Clark Expedition Base: Total Respondents, N=2020 Q.10 How much do you know about the original Lewis & Clark Expedition? Would you say...

Description of the Lewis & Clark Expedition Nearly 200 years ago, Meriwether Lewis and William Clark led an expedition across western North America to establish an all-water route connecting the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Along their route, the Expedition mapped rivers, catalogued many new species of plants and animals and encountered dozens of Indian tribes who had called the West home for centuries. With the help of Sacagawea, their acquired Indican guide, the Lewis & Clark Expedition achieved their goal of reaching the Pacific Ocean and returning within three years. This journey across unknown territory began the westward movement of American settlers.

What Respondents Found Most Interesting About The Lewis & Clark Expedition Base: Heard Of Lewis & Clark, N=1732 Q.11 Based on the description I just read to you, what most interests you about the Lewis & Clark Expedition?

What Respondents Found Most Interesting About The Lewis & Clark Expedition Base: Have Not Heard Of Lewis & Clark, N=268 Q.11 Based on the description I just read to you, what most interests you about the Lewis & Clark Expedition?

What Respondents Found Least Interesting About The Lewis & Clark Expedition Base: Heard of Lewis & Clark, N=1732 Q.12 What do you find least interesting?

What Respondents Found Least Interesting About The Lewis & Clark Expedition Base: Have Not Heard Of Lewis & Clark, N=268 Q.12 What do you find least interesting?

Description of Montana Lewis & Clark Bicentennial Events Q.13 How much interest do you have in these types of events in Montana? (read description) Montana is planning to commemorate the 200 th anniversary of the Lewis & Clark Expedition through community and regional events. These events will include festivals, celebrations and guided river trips. Site tours and re- enactments of the Expeditions experiences and encounters with Indian tribes will also be offered at various sites the Expedition was known to use. How much interest do you have in these types of events in Montana?

Level Of Interest In Lewis & Clark Events After Exposure To Description Base: Total Respondent, N=2020 Q.13 How much interest do you have in these types of events in Montana? (read description)

Likelihood of Attending Lewis & Clark Bicentennial Events in Montana Base: All Respondents, N=2020

Why Wouldnt Attend Base: Would Not Attend These Types Of Events In Montana, N=230 Q.16 Why would you not attend?

Profile: Those Very Likely To Attend The 200th Anniversary Base: Very Likely to Attend N=172 Q.14 If you were provided with appropriate trip-planning information how likely is it that you would attend these types of events in Montana? Would you say...

Profile: Those Very Likely To Attend The 200th Anniversary Base: Very Likely To Attend, N=172 Q.14 If you were provided with appropriate trip-planning information how likely is it that you would attend these types of events in Montana? Would you say...

Likelihood To Spend Time Exploring Montanas Rural Areas That Trace The Expedition Route Base: Very Likely To Attend N=172 Q.15 If you were to visit Montana, how likely is it that you would spend time exploring some of Montanas rural areas that very closely trace the Expeditions route through the state?

Profile: Those Very Likely To Explore Montana's Rural Areas Base: Very Likely To Attend AND Very Likely To Explore N=118 Q.15 If you were to visit Montana, how likely is it that you would spend time exploring some of Montanas rural areas that very closely trace the Expeditions route through the state?

Profile: Those Very Likely To Explore Montana's Rural Areas Base: Very Likely To Attend Events In MT AND Very Likely To Explore Q.15 If you were to visit Montana, how likely is it that you would spend time exploring some of Montanas rural areas that very closely trace the Expeditions route through the state?

Visitor Increase Projections For Lewis & Clark Commemoration in Montana -- 2 year and 4 year Projections Base: Current Visitor Projections (ITRR) and Very Likely to Attend

Lewis & Clark Visitor Projections Montana should expect a total of 8.9 million additional visits for the Lewis & Clark Bicentennial Commemoration in addition to the base visitation that would normally be expected. If all of this increase takes place in 2005 and 2006, visitation levels would be at 16.1 million in 2005 and 14.6 million in 2006 given that 60% of the increase occurs during 2005 (because the most adventurous encounters took place in 1805). If this increase takes place over the years with 40% of the increase taking place in and 60% in , expectations are 11.7 million in 2003, 12.7 million in 2004, 14 million in 2005, and 13.2 million in 2006.

The Big Picture: What would this increase mean for Montana? Based on a June 1- October 31 visitation season and the 4-year projection, increases over base visitation are: Individuals Statewide Groups Statewide* Total Season Per DayTotal Season Per Day million 9,150583,333 3, million 14,379875,000 5, million 20, million8, million 14,379875,000 5,991 * Based on group size of 2.4 people.

Implications Marketing is the Key! Disperse visitation out over and throughout the state in order to reduce impacts. Beef-up infrastructure along the trail - especially in rural Montana (but not at the expense of marketing!). Marketing will shape how visitation will occur, while infrastructure will take care of the visitors that come. They are complimentary elements that must go hand-in- hand. Without effective marketing, Montana will be planning for the unknown.

Limitations The event is still 5 years away - a lot can happen in that amount of time. This is the first of a number of Lewis & Clark studies that will be conducted. Estimations may change as the event draws closer and more information is gathered. No proven method for converting intention to travel to realization, but these projections attempted to account for this phenomenon. This study was exclusive to Montana. The second Lewis & Clark study - due out mid-May - will provide a ranking of Montana along with the other trail states.

Thank you! Kim McMahon, Research Associate and Acting Coordinator of the University Travel Research Program Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research The University of Montana