Age based demographics of US Physicians Peter A. Boal, B.S. Associate Director UC San Diego PACE Program

AMA Physician Masterfile Data Includes current and historical data for physicians in the US about: specialties, sex, age, board cert status, state and country of practice, and major professional activity 1/3 of all physicians surveyed each year Major professional activity (MPA) classifications: Patient Care Office Based Practice Hospital-Based Practice Other Professional Activity (Nonpatient Care) Administration Research Teaching Other Activities

AMA Physician Masterfile Data Physicians who are retired, semi-retired, working part-time (less than 20 hours per week), temporarily not in practice are classified as Inactive Limitations of MPA data self-designated Lag time for updating as long as 4 years Only survey 1/3 of all docs every 3 yrs

2011 Major Professional Activity Data MPA N Mean Age Percent Administration 14,585 63.2 1.37 Hospital-Based Practice* 86,738 53.7 8.17 Residents (all years) 110,783 32.2 10.44 Inactive 131,071 76.9 12.35 Locum Tenens 1364 58.6 0.13 Medical Teaching 10,518 59.7 0.99 Not Classified 75,290 39.7 7.1 Office-Based Practice* 611,693 52.3 57.65 Other 4,806 61.0 0.45 Research 14,1176 60.8 1.34 *Active Practice

Masterfile Data Past &Present 1985 Number in active practice = 476,683 Mean age = not known % 65 or older = 9.4 (n = 44,808) 2005 Number in active practice = 672,531 Mean age = 50.0 (SD = 11.4) % 65 or older = 11.7 (n=78,340) 2011 Number in active practice = 697,340 Mean age = 52.5 (SD = 11.4) % 65 or older = 15.12 (n=105,464)

Age Distribution of Active Physicians from 1985 – 2011 (AMA Masterfile Data)   1985 2005 2011 Age Group* Number Percent <35 127,193 26.8 45,262 6.7 22,974 3.3 35-44 142,889 29.8 192,469 28.7 170,215 24.4 45-54 92,108 19.1 214,453 31.9 210,610 30.2 55-64 71,110 14.8 141,131 21 188,077 27.0 65+ 43,383 9.4 78,340 11.6 105,464 15.1 TOTALS 476,683 100 671,655 697,340 *Missing age data: n=876 (2005), n=1091 (2011) No D.O. data included in this group. Estimated number of active D.O.s in 1984 = 11,514

Differences in Opinion AMA Physician Masterfile estimates of active physicians differs from US Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS) CPS data estimates more young physicians entering the workforce and fewer older physicians remaining active Staiger et al, JAMA. 2009;302(15):1674-1680

Figure 1. Trends in CPS and Masterfile Data Estimates of the Number of Active Physicians Between 1979 and 2008, in Total and by 10-Year Age Groups. CPS indicates US Census Bureau Current Population Survey; Masterfile, American Medical Association Physician Masterfile. Each data point represents the number of physicians who were active (working ≥20 hours per week) in a given year, based on data from the Masterfile and CPS. The Masterfile data are based on a census and have no sampling errors. Standard errors on the CPS data estimates for a single year are 4% to 5% for all ages, 13% to 24% for ages ≥65 years, and 8% to 13% for all other age categories. Active physicians includes both medical and osteopathic physicians. Staiger, D. O. et al. JAMA 2009;302:1674-1680 Copyright restrictions may apply.

Differences in Estimates Continued Projected of number of active physicians in 2020 varies significantly between CPS and AMA Masterfile CPS estimates 957,000 active physicians 65+ = 86,130 (9%) 55+ = 277,530 (29%) AMA = 1,050,000 65+ = 189,000 (18%) 55+ = 409,500 (39%)

Figure 3. Percentage of Active Physicians in Various Age Groups Based on 2020 Projections Derived From the CPS and Masterfile Data CPS indicates US Census Bureau Current Population Survey; Masterfile, American Medical Association Physician Masterfile. Staiger, D. O. et al. JAMA 2009;302:1674-1680 Copyright restrictions may apply.

Americans are Aging Too In 2010, 13% of Americans were 65+ In 2020, 16.1% of Americans will be 65+ Current life expectancy at birth = 78.1

Bottom Line Physician population aged significantly over the past 25 years Estimates of physician aging over the next decade vary significantly More data is needed to make accurate predictions of the future number of physicians in practice Americans are aging and the number of people over 65 will continue to grow significantly over the next 10 years