Tehniline analüüs November 2012 Risto Sverdlik.

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Presentation transcript:

Tehniline analüüs November 2012 Risto Sverdlik

Sisukord Graafikute tüübid Trendid Toetus- ja vastupanutasemed Tehnilised indikaatorid

Mis asi on tehniline analüüs? 3

Graafikute tüübid 4

Joongraafik 5

Bar OHLC 6 6

Küünlad Kõrgeim Avanemishind Sulgemishind Sulgemishind Avanemishind Madalaim 7 7 7

Trend

Pikaajaline trend

Keskmine trend 10

Lühiajaline trend 11 11

Horisontaalne toetus ja vastupanu

Diagonaalne toetus ja vastupanu

Diagonaalne toetus ja vastupanu 14

Trendijooned AUDUSD

Trendijooned EURUSD

Trendijooned S&P500

Tehnilised indikaatorid 1) Juhtivad ehk leading indikaatorid (ostsillaatorid) Annavad signaali enne trendi muutust 2) Mahajäävad ehk lagging indikaatorid (momentum) Annavad signaali pärast trendi muutust

Libisevad keskmised Simple moving average (SMA) Andmehulga keskmine väärtus 10 perioodi SMA = viimase kümne hinna keskmine väärtus

SMA

Libisevad keskmised Exponential moving average (EMA) Arvutamine keerulisem EMA(current) = EMA(previous) + SmoothingFactor x (Price – EMA[previous]) SmoothingFactor = 2/(1+n) n = periood Kui n = 10, siis SmoothingFactor = 2/11 = 0,181818

SMA vs EMA 50-SMA 50-EMA

MACD Moving Average Convergence-Divergence MACD: (12-day EMA – 26-day EMA) Signal line: 9-day EMA of MACD Kasutatakse trendi pöördumise leidmiseks

MACD Signal MACD

Relative Strenght Index Populaarseim ostsillaator Vahemikus 0-100 Mõõdab hinnaliikumise kiirust ja muutust ehk sisuliselt üleostetust ja ülemüüdust Üldiselt: <30  ülemüüdud >70  üleostetud RSI = 100 – 100/(1+RS) RS = Average gain / average loss

RSI

Divergents Hinnagraafiku ja indikaatori lahknevus

Küünalde mustrid Doji Hammer & Hanging Man

Näited

Näited

Kokkuvõtteks Ettevõtete puhul: Piisavalt suur Likviidne (korralik käive; piisav hulk vabalt kaubeldavaid aktsiaid ehk free float) Ei tööta majandustulemuste ega muude erakorraliste sündmuste ajal

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Tänan kuulamast! Risto Sverdlik maakler risto.sverdlik@lhv.ee Käesolevas seminaris esitatud materjale ei tohi käsitleda investeerimissoovituse või -nõustamisena ega kutsena väärtpaberite omandamiseks. Finantsteenuste ostmisel tutvu alati teenuse tingimustega ning konsulteeri oma finantsnõustajaga. Fondidesse investeerimisel tutvu prospekti ja lihtsustatud prospektiga ning vaata lisainfot lhv.ee Investeerimisfondi eelmiste perioodide tootlus ei tähenda lubadust ega viidet fondi järgmiste perioodide tootluste kohta.