MAPPING CLIMATE/WEATHER RELATED HAZARDS AND RISKS IN THE PHILIPPINES

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Presentation transcript:

MAPPING CLIMATE/WEATHER RELATED HAZARDS AND RISKS IN THE PHILIPPINES Dissemination Workshop for Mapping Philippine Vulnerability to Environmental Disasters Klima Climate Change Center 8 July 2005 Center for Environmental Geomatics Climate Studies Division Manila Observatory

Source: PDI Source: PDI Source: PDI Source: PDI Source: PDI 5 July 2001, Typhoon Feria (Bacasmas, Edwin, PDI, INS) 27 May 2003, Typhoon Chedeng (Bondoc, Joan, PDI, INS) 5 July 2001 (Bacasmas, Edwin, PDI, INS) 5 July 2001 (Bacasmas, Edwin, PDI, INS) Source: PDI Source: PDI 27 May 2003, Typhoon Chedeng (Punzalan, Jim Guia, PDI, INS).

(Bacasmas, Edwin, PDI, INS) 17 September 1997 (PDI, INS). Source: PDI Source: PDI Source: PDI 27 April 2003 (Bacasmas, Edwin, PDI, INS) 18 January 1999 (PDI, INS)

HISTORICAL CLIMATE IMPACTS Floods Droughts Warming Decrease in Crop Production Temperature Rainfall Extreme Events Typhoons El Niño

likelihood of harm, loss, disaster RISK

RISK IMPACTS / HAZARDS EXPOSURE VULNERABILITY What areas were/are going to be affected? IMPACTS / HAZARDS Who/what are going to be affected? EXPOSURE What areas can cope? VULNERABILITY RISK

Risk = H x E x V

NATIONAL STATISTICS OFFICE EXPOSURE POPULATION DENSITY 2000 NATIONAL STATISTICS OFFICE CITY/MUNICIPAL DATA 5km x 5km grids

HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX 2000 VULNERABILITY HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX 2000 UNDP Education Health Income

HAZARDS Temperature Rainfall Typhoons El Niño

AUSTRALIA’S COMMONWEALTH AND SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH ORGANIZATION HAZARD PROJECTED TEMPERATURE CHANGE AUSTRALIA’S COMMONWEALTH AND SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH ORGANIZATION 5.625º x 3.2º grids (2066-2095)

RISK (TEMPERATURE) Sulu Basilan Lanao Del Sur Maguindanao Lanao Del Norte Davao Del Sur Zamboanga Del Sur Tawi-tawi Misamis Occidental Camiguin Siquijor Misamis Oriental Cebu Agusan Del Norte Zamboanga Del Norte Albay Sarangani Negros Oriental Negros Occidental Ifugao

PROJECTED RAINFALL CHANGE HAZARD PROJECTED RAINFALL CHANGE HADLEY CENTRE FOR CLIMATE PREDICTION AND RESEARCH 3.75º x 2.5º grids (2066-2095)

RISK (RAINFALL CHANGE) Albay Pampanga Ifugao Rizal Cavite Sorsogon Laguna Biliran Batangas Pangasinan Masbate Metro Manila Tarlac Nueva Ecija Northern Samar Aklan Capiz La Union Western Samar Romblon

HAZARD TYPHOON HITS JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (Tropical Depression, Tropical Storms, Typhoons, Super typhoons) 0.25º x 0.25º grids (1945-2001)

RISK (TYPHOONS) Cagayan Albay Ifugao Sorsogon Kalinga Ilocos Sur Ilocos Norte Camarines Norte Mountain Province Camarines Sur Northern Samar Catanduanes Apayao Pampanga La Union Nueva Ecija Pangasinan Masbate Tarlac Western Samar

HAZARD El NIŇO INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE DATA DISTRIBUTION CENTRE 0.5º x 0.5º grids (1971-2000)

RISK (EL NIŇO) Sulu Basilan Maguindanao Lanao Del Sur Lanao Del Norte Davao Del Sur Misamis Occidental Sarangani Zamboanga Del Sur South Cotabato Zamboanga Del Norte North Cotabato Sultan Kudarat Siquijor Tawi-tawi Negros Oriental Camiguin Davao del Norte Misamis Oriental Bukidnon

Temperature Rainfall El Niño Typhoons

SUMMARY Climate Change Typhoon Drought (El Nino) Temperature: Mindanao, Visayas (central) Rainfall: Luzon (central, south, southeast), Visayas (east) Typhoon Luzon (north, southeast), Visayas (east) Drought (El Nino) Mindanao (central, west)