Is Montana’s “24/7 Sobriety Program” Deterring Drunk Drivers? Jessica Stevens Economics Spring 2016

WHY? Background 10,000+ DUI-related deaths yearly First DUI laws enacted over 100 years ago 10,000+ DUI-related deaths yearly More than$56 billion in damages WHY? Some background facts and figures. Why have these high rates of drunk driving persisted and why is it so hard to deter drunk drivers? Drinking culture, social tolerance, hard to know when you are drunk. Leads to people not knowing risk they impose on society when they drive drunk.

Montana ranked “deadliest state” for DUI fatalities in 2008 Background Montana ranked “deadliest state” for DUI fatalities in 2008 pilot “24/7 Sobriety Program” Increase the likelihood and severity of punishment for repeat offenders Montana is not immune to this epidemic. In 2008 Montana was ranked the Deadliest State based on per capita DUI related fatalities.

“24/7 Sobriety Program” Montana DUI Policy repeat DUI offenders required to abstain from alcohol failure resulted in jail time or license suspension alcohol education class and counseling

South Dakota case study piloted exact same “24/7” program in 2005 highly successful reduce recidivism by 12% decrease in heavy drinking Certain, swift penalties effective at changing behaviors

Is “24/7” deterring drunk drivers? Montana and “24/7” 2011- MT legislature pass “the 24/7 sobriety program act” 22 counties adopt program Fewer alcohol related crashes and property damage More DUI related fatalities and DUI arrests Is “24/7” deterring drunk drivers?

Thesis question My research addressed the following question: is Montana’s “24/7 Sobriety Program” a more effective deterrent for drunk driving than previous Montana DUI policies? My goal in conducting the research that follows is to determine whether the “24/7 Sobriety Program” has lived up to expectations namely whether it has served as a better deterrent for drunk driving than previous MT DUI policies. Determining the deterrent effect of the program for drunk driving has policy relevance nation-wide. If “24/7” is deterring drunk drivers, it is in the best interest of other states to consider implementing the program. If it is not deterring drunk drivers, perhaps it is time for Montana to go back to the drawing board and re-think its current drunk driving policies.

Dui OFFENSES PER 1000 PEOPLE BEFORE AND AFTER “24/7” implementation

Methods Data: MTIBRS- DUI arrests from 1994 by county by month Differences-in-Differences Analysis statistical model: Yit= 𝛼 24 7 𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽𝑋 𝑖𝑡 + 𝛾 𝑖 + 𝛿 𝑡 + 𝜀 𝑖𝑡 Data: MTIBRS- DUI arrests from 1994 by county by month Describe the model and where you got all the variable data from

results Variable Mean SD Count Min Max Offense 7.147341 14.95552 7201 135 Unemployment 5.268304 2.468462 6720 1.3 20.5 Population 17630.88 29770.39 470 158217 Month 18246.97 1054.434 16437 20058 Jurisdiction 28.5 16.16443 1 56 1=Program in Effect .3071429 .4613435 Offenses per 1000 People .1966588 .3222839 10999 2.49 Female Offenses 1.378762 4.016244 48 Male Offenses 3.80971 10.20146 102 Income 33590.98 7052.169 19254 62255 1=College in Session .0520833 .2222116 results Summary Statistics for all variables included in the model

unobserved differences in trends across treatment and control counties Challenges unobserved differences in trends across treatment and control counties Most drunk driving goes undetected Repeat offenses v. Total offenses Very young program

Results

Female Total DUI Offense Results   Female Total DUI Offense Male Total DUI Offense 1=Program in Effect 0.551 -0.885 (0.803) (1.705) Unemployment 0.0372 0.352** (0.0540) (0.115) Population -0.00000122 0.000000897 (0.0000393) (0.0000833) Income 0.00000211 -0.0000184 (0.0000140) (0.0000297) College -0.0675 -0.0701 (0.239) (0.507) Constant 2.599** 7.879*** (0.913) (1.938) Observations 2921 Adjusted R2 -0.003 0.006

Conclusion The “24/7 Sobriety Program” is not causing a decline in the number of total DUI offenses in Montana counties may be decreasing the number of repeat DUI offenses No visible impact on the number of total DUI offenses

Going Forward Additional research on “24/7” using repeat offense data More Dynamic DUI policy- 1st time offenders and repeat offenders Public education and outreach

Questions?