Springer Compact APCs Looking at APC data from the 5 agreements 28/06/2018 Looking at APC data from the 5 agreements This photo, “Beer flight” is copyright (c) 2011 TreasureLA and made available under a CC BY-NC 2.0 licence

Background After informal discussion between a number of the consortia in the Compact agreement it became apparent that authors did not publish OA articles in all of the available journals and that cross- consortia analysis to assess the publication trends by journal title and year needed to be undertaken All consortia have been adding their APC metadata to Open APC making it possible to undertake a full analysis on the number of articles published by journal and year in the Compact agreement 29/11/2018 3rd ESAC workshop

Research questions What are the overall total number of OA articles published in each journal in 2016/2017? What are the total number of OA articles published in each journal by leading authors from each consortia in 2016/2017? How many journals have no OA articles overall and by consortia in 2016/2017? In order to suggest at what point journals could flip from hybrid to fully OA, what are the future trends for OA article publication in eligible journals? What is the usage data for each journal by consortia in 2016/2017? 29/11/2018 3rd ESAC workshop

Research questions Most used Most valued? Expendable? Most APCs 29/11/2018 3rd ESAC workshop

Methodology Small sample of journal titles within the Springer Compact deal to begin to understand the research questions This sample data will be used to refine the research questions and to recommend a methodology for a full study Uses openly available sources including Open APC, Springer Compact journals lists by consortia, CrossREF JUSP’s institutional usage data (UK only) will also be used to give an indication of what could be achieved if usage data was included Analysis uses data on the articles published in 2016 and 2017 as a sample Data from Sweden is only available for July-December 2016 29/11/2018 3rd ESAC workshop

# of articles published by consortia 2016/2017 29/11/2018 3rd ESAC workshop

Eligible journals Consortia Number of journals eligible for OA publication (2016-2017) Number of eligible journals common to all consortia Number of eligible journals unavailable to individual consortia (from a total of 1,806 eligible journals across the four consortia and MPG) Journals unique to individual consortia Austria 1,733 1,695 73 MPG 1,751 55 Sweden Netherlands 1,771 35 UK 1,775 31 25 It should be noted that the number of journals made available to each consortia may have differed in 2016 when compared to 2017 29/11/2018 3rd ESAC workshop

OA articles published by consortia Number of articles published in common journals (2016) Number of eligible and common journals with articles published (2016) Eligible journals with articles published as a % of total eligible and common journals (2016) Number of articles published in common journals (2017) Number of eligible and common journals with articles published (2017) Eligible journals with articles published as a % of total eligible and common journals (2017) Austria 999 429 25.3% 1,041 449 26.5% MPG 183 116 6.8% 202 121 7.1% Netherlands 2,007 657 38.8% 1,954 668 39.4% Sweden 514 339 20% 1,353 585 34.5% UK 3,052 909 53.6% 3,768 965 56.9% If all subscribers move towards a no opt-out agreement (e.g. the Swedish agreement), it would be expected that proportion of OA articles published would increase. In the case of the UK this would increase the total number of articles published OA by 34.5% and 18.3% in 2016 and 2017 respectively 29/11/2018 3rd ESAC workshop

# of articles published in a specific range 2016/2017 29/11/2018 3rd ESAC workshop

# of articles published in a specific range 2016/2017 Only 40 journals (2.8% from a total of 1,443 journals with articles published in both years) had a total number of articles published across the two years equal to or above 50 articles per journal 198 (13.7%) journals with the highest number of articles published (7,525 in total) had as many articles published in both years as the remaining 1,245 (86.3%) journals (7,548 articles in total) 29/11/2018 3rd ESAC workshop

#of articles published by journal 2016/2017 29/11/2018 3rd ESAC workshop

Top 10 journal titles by total # of articles published 29/11/2018 3rd ESAC workshop

Top 10 journal titles by total # of articles published The majority of articles were published in journals with less than 40 articles published (11,387 or 75.5% articles in total) Not all subscribers have articles published in all the journals No articles published by MPG authors in Diabetologia or Synthese No articles published by MPG and Swedish authors in European Radiology 29/11/2018 3rd ESAC workshop

APCs vs. usage When considering the flipping point, we also need to consider the usage in other countries If enough UK authors publish OA content in Diabetologia to flip the journal to OA, and it has downloads in other countries, then this is highly significant Where a country’s authors read and where they publish is not a finite set 29/11/2018 3rd ESAC workshop

Journals with no OA articles by consortia and year The five subscribers published a total of 15,073 articles (6,755 + 8,318) in 2016 and 2017 However, from 1,695 Springer Compact eligible journals 466 (27.5%) had no articles published in 2016; 392 (23.1%) had no articles published in 2017; Between 2016 and 2017: There has been a -15.9% decrease in the number of journals with no articles published There were 252 common journal titles with no articles published 29/11/2018 3rd ESAC workshop

Journal titles by usage and # of articles published UK data from 2017. Data source: Open APC and JUSP 29/11/2018 3rd ESAC workshop

Springer Compact journals flipping to OA Data used: # of OA articles published by subscribers in 2016/2017 by journal (Open APC); Total # of articles published in each journal in 2016/2017 (Crossref) Includes editorial content, so over-estimates Value of articles published OA in each title (e.g. APC €2,200) Journal list price (based on 2018 Springer Nature Price List) Data used to calculate the following: # of OA articles published as % of total # of articles published in each journal 2016/2017 List price multiplied by the number of institutions with access to the title (i.e. total number of institutions that are part of each agreement) Difference between the value of articles published OA per journal minus total list price by number of institutions in agreement 29/11/2018 3rd ESAC workshop

Springer Compact journals flipping to OA Looked at top 40 titles For some journals the total percentage of articles published OA can be up to 30% or more Synthese in 2016 European Child & Adolescent Psychiatry and European Journal of Epidemiology in 2017 In 2016 and 2017 for Wiener klinische Wochenschrift the value of OA articles was greater than the journal price by the number of institutions with access to the journal This means that this journal could flip to a fully OA model Psychonomic Bulletin & Review was close to matching the value of the articles published OA with the journal price multiplied by the number of institutions with access to the journal Please note we need to verify the number of institutions we have used in the count 29/11/2018 3rd ESAC workshop

Further research and analysis Collect and analyse historical data on the number of articles published OA for 1,695 journal titles (note: data is available in Springer’s website); Assess what would have been spent in each eligible journal (1,695 journals) on OA articles publication costs in 2016 and 2017 by the 5 subscribers based on the APC fee of €2,200 per article; Identify the price for each eligible journal with articles published under the Compact agreement in 2016 and 2017 (i.e. Springer’s price for Institutional Rate e-only) Compare the price for 1,695 journals (multiply the journal subscription cost against all academic institutions that are in each agreement) against the total APC expenditure incurred (i.e. fee of €2,200 per each article) in each year; Refine the above methodology as required Attempt further forecasting… Create matrix of titles: 29/11/2018 3rd ESAC workshop

Further research and analysis ‘Read only’ Read and publish Expendable? ‘OA publish’ only 29/11/2018 3rd ESAC workshop